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Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:46 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump MUST learn to give inspiring speeches. He has so much meat to get his teeth into yet he continues with his usual stuff.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:51 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I'm in Missouri and everyone I know is either voting trump, pulling democrat ballot or not voting until the general election.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 65413024


I am in KY, everyone I talked to said the same yet election day it was a nail biter. I don't know if it was because it was a caucus or if people were influenced by debate/Romney but it was a lot closer than many predicted. I thought it would be a landslide like Tenn was for Trump.
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/06/2016 04:53 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP....even if Trump is CLOSE to the the 1237....the Republican party cannot deny him the nomination.
...not without all hell breaking loose.

If he makes it to 1175-1200-ish....that will be enough.

trpright
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


I really like hearing what you expressed above.

I agree that if Trump is close to half the delegates and he is still denied the nomination, all hell will break loose.
 Quoting: Biochemky


If the RNC/GOP/Republican Party try to deny Trump a victory in a very close delegate count,
and/or try to "place RINO Romney in power" in some brokered convention scenario, against the will of the people...
...that would be complete political suicide for the Republican party.

In that event there are any number of ways the end result of that could play out,
and none of them are good for America, or the continued existence of the Republican party.

headnod12
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:53 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
There are two guarantees I will make right now. 1 no way Trump will win Ohio, 2 no way in hell Trump will be in the top two in California. I hate to say it but its true.
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/06/2016 04:54 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump MUST learn to give inspiring speeches. He has so much meat to get his teeth into yet he continues with his usual stuff.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71060266


If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
What he has been doing has worked well enough.

headnod12
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:56 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
There are two guarantees I will make right now. 1 no way Trump will win Ohio, 2 no way in hell Trump will be in the top two in California. I hate to say it but its true.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71580093


I say he won't be in the top two because I don't think Rubio will ever drop out, the Rino,s need Rubio to stick it out and pull delegates away from Trump.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 05:00 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump MUST learn to give inspiring speeches. He has so much meat to get his teeth into yet he continues with his usual stuff.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71060266


If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
What he has been doing has worked well enough.

:headnod12:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


It's cracking. There is no downside to inspiring people with his public speaking. People are with Trump in spite of his poor speaking not because of it.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 05:01 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It would pay to identify which are the caucus states to factor in the establishment votes...

It has been noted that it is the caucus states results that are being "influenced"
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 05:02 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It would pay to identify which are the caucus states to factor in the establishment votes...

It has been noted that it is the caucus states results that are being "influenced"
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70717326


You better believe it!
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/06/2016 05:03 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump MUST learn to give inspiring speeches. He has so much meat to get his teeth into yet he continues with his usual stuff.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71060266


If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
What he has been doing has worked well enough.

headnod12
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


It's cracking. There is no downside to inspiring people with his public speaking. People are with Trump in spite of his poor speaking not because of it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71060266


Nothing is cracking.
It's working fine.
You expected a 100% clean sweep of all states by Trump??? lol

cocool
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 05:14 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Rubio just won Puerto Rico with close to 75%.

So much for that prediction.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71615300


At least 60% of the vote in Puerto Rico has yet to be counted.

No delegates have been awarded to anyone yet.

Trump is in second place.

If Rubio maintains his lead above 50%, he will be awarded all 23 delegates.

If Rubio does not maintain his lead above 50%, Trump will share in the delegates awarded.

This sharing of delegates, on a proportional basis, is what I suggested could occur.
PACNWGUY-01

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03/06/2016 05:24 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
For months I have watched 1,000 pundits say Trump is dead, he can't win. I have watched 17 candidates and their Superpacs spend over $200 million in attack ads to kill Trump. I have watched the GOP and DNC working together to destroy him. I have watched ALL the TV networks, Cable Channels, and 99% of the newspapers doing all they can do to sway the voters away from Trump. I have seen Trolls on social media and forums attacking anyone who is pro Trump. I have seen the Pope, Mexico, China and Saudie Arabia attack Trump. I have seen Romney, Ryan, McConnell and a host of REPUBLICAN politicians attack Trump.

You want to know why Trump is still the Frontrunner after All that? It's because TRUMP IS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

img36x
There will be a time in the not so distant future when they will hunt Liberals with DOGS.

Democrats vote for what benefits them while Republicans vote for what benefits the country.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 05:37 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Excellent work! I'd like to know what the deadlines for any required party affiliation changes that someone might want to make in those states...then you have help with the ground game. Trump supporters need to be pounding in states where ppl still have time to register/declare party affiliation (where required)
 Quoting: snark


You can find out online. I actually looked up my state earlier in the week. I'm registered as an independent in Pennsylvania, but independents aren't allowed to vote in the Republican and Democrat primaries in Pennsylvania (check your state to see its rules), so I need to register as a Republican. I think I have until March 28th to register for our primary, which I think is in June. I intend to change my registration just to vote for Trump in the primary. It appears our state is winner take all.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70978385


If you have time it would help to make and get pinned a post telling people which states require them to be registered republican in order to vote in the primary. Also add in the deadline for changing registration. This should be tweeted over to the Trump campaign so that it can be shared far and wide.
DizzieMissLizzie

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03/06/2016 05:43 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump currently has 382 delegates.

This means Trump still needs 855 delegates to pull into the Republican Convention in Cleveland in July with the required HALF (1,237) of all available delegates (2,472).

In my opinion, the list below represents the most reasonable path for Trump to be successful in getting the required delegates to ensure being made the Republican Party’s nominee on the first ballot.

Also, please take special note that the path to success below DOES NOT require Trump to win OHIO or CALIFORNIA. The path to success DOES require Trump to win FLORIDA.

Additionally, the list was built assuming Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich stay in the primary race in order to spoil Trump's chances of gaining the nomination outright.

Lastly, the list was also built keeping the effects of a late-entering candidacy of Romney on primary results also in mind.

855 Trump delegates are still needed:

Puerto Rico 10 (proportional win out of 23 total) 845 delegates still needed

Hawaii 9 (proportional win out of 19 total) 836 delegates still needed

Idaho 12 (proportional win out of 32 total) 824 delegates still needed

Michigan 35 (proportional win out of 59 total) 789 delegates still needed

Mississippi 25 (proportional win out of 40 total) 764 delegates still needed

District of Columbia 7 (proportional win out of 19 total) 757 delegates still needed

Florida 99 (winner take all out of 99) 658 delegates still needed

Illinois 69 (winner take all out of 69) 589 delegates still needed

Missouri 52 (winner take all out of 52) 537 delegates still needed

North Carolina 40 (proportional win out of 72 total) 497 delegates still needed

Arizona 58 (winner take all out of 58) 439 delegates still needed

Utah 10 (proportional win out of 40 total) 429 delegates still needed

Wisconsin 42 (winner take all out of 42) 387 delegates still needed

New York 40 (proportional win out of 95 total) 347 delegates still needed

Connecticut 18 (proportional win out of 28 total) 329 delegates still needed

Maryland 38 (winner take all out of 38) 291 delegates still needed

Pennsylvania 71 (winner take all out of 71) 220 delegates still needed

Rhode Island 10 (proportional win out of 19 total) 210 delegates still needed

Indiana 57 (winner take all out of 57) 153 delegates still needed

West Virginia 22 (direct election of 34) 131 delegates still needed

Oregon 14 (proportional win out of 28 total) 117 delegates still needed

Washington 24 (proportional win out of 44 total) 93 delegates still needed

Montana 27 (winner take all out of 27) 66 delegates still needed

New Jersey 51 (winner take all out of 51) 15 delegates still needed

New Mexico 10 (proportional win out of 24 total) 5 delegates still needed

South Dakota 29 (winner take all out of 29) 0 delegates still needed

Trump ends up with 24 delegates MORE than are needed.
 Quoting: Biochemky


Your first state. I don't think Trump will win Puerto Rico.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71615300


Rubio is hammering in PR with over 70% of the vote

Last Edited by DizzieMissLizzie on 03/06/2016 05:44 PM
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 05:47 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It would pay to identify which are the caucus states to factor in the establishment votes...

It has been noted that it is the caucus states results that are being "influenced"
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70717326


Which states/territories have a caucus rather than a traditional primary?

As of the 2016 election cycle, it appears that the states/districts/territories which use the caucus system include Kentucky, Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Idaho, Kansas, Wyoming, Alaska, Washington, North Dakota, District of Columbia, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[link to www.thegreenpapers.com]
PACNWGUY-01

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03/06/2016 05:51 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It would pay to identify which are the caucus states to factor in the establishment votes...

It has been noted that it is the caucus states results that are being "influenced"
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70717326


Which states/territories have a caucus rather than a traditional primary?

As of the 2016 election cycle, it appears that the states/districts/territories which use the caucus system include Kentucky, Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Idaho, Kansas, Wyoming, Alaska, Washington, North Dakota, District of Columbia, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[link to www.thegreenpapers.com]
 Quoting: Biochemky


Washington is a primary state. The caucus is only to vote for local delegates to go to the state convention.
There will be a time in the not so distant future when they will hunt Liberals with DOGS.

Democrats vote for what benefits them while Republicans vote for what benefits the country.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 05:52 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I did not indicate that Trump would win Puerto Rico.

I did indicate that I thought Trump could get awarded a portion of their delegates (but less than the front runner) in the end.

If, after ALL the votes have been counted, Rubio finishes with less than 50% of the vote in PR (he's at 70% now), Trump would be awarded some delegates.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 05:58 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It would pay to identify which are the caucus states to factor in the establishment votes...

It has been noted that it is the caucus states results that are being "influenced"
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70717326


Which states/territories have a caucus rather than a traditional primary?

As of the 2016 election cycle, it appears that the states/districts/territories which use the caucus system include Kentucky, Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Idaho, Kansas, Wyoming, Alaska, Washington, North Dakota, District of Columbia, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[link to www.thegreenpapers.com]
 Quoting: Biochemky


Washington is a primary state. The caucus is only to vote for local delegates to go to the state convention.
 Quoting: PACNWGUY-01


Yes, Washington state has caucuses but they are only used for the purpose you pointed out in your reply.

[link to www.gopeakteam.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 06:10 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
it's almost certain he'll win in California, which has an open primary
Xeven

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03/06/2016 06:17 PM

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP....even if Trump is CLOSE to the the 1237....the Republican party cannot deny him the nomination.
...not without all hell breaking loose.

If he makes it to 1175-1200-ish....that will be enough.

trpright
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


I really like hearing what you expressed above.

I agree that if Trump is close to half the delegates and he is still denied the nomination, all hell will break loose.
 Quoting: Biochemky


Especially if they give it to Lubio.
I reserve the right to declare my comments and posts as satire. Nothing I post should be considered or interpreted as advocacy for illegal activity. My comments are designed to inspire critical political thinking. I only mean half of what I say and only say half of what I mean.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 06:19 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I did not indicate that Trump would win Puerto Rico.

 Quoting: Biochemky


putin
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 06:22 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I think TPTB will keep us on the edge of our seats (drama) till the last minute and then it will be "oops didn't make it by one vote, too bad but thanks for trying"!
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 06:28 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I did not indicate that Trump would win Puerto Rico.

I did indicate that I thought Trump could get awarded a portion of their delegates (but less than the front runner) in the end.

If, after ALL the votes have been counted, Rubio finishes with less than 50% of the vote in PR (he's at 70% now), Trump would be awarded some delegates.
 Quoting: Biochemky


Rubot looks like he'll get all the delegates in Puerto Rico.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 06:52 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It would pay to identify which are the caucus states to factor in the establishment votes...

It has been noted that it is the caucus states results that are being "influenced"
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70717326


Which states/territories have a caucus rather than a traditional primary?

As of the 2016 election cycle, it appears that the states/districts/territories which use the caucus system include Kentucky, Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Idaho, Kansas, Wyoming, Alaska, Washington, North Dakota, District of Columbia, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[link to www.thegreenpapers.com]
 Quoting: Biochemky


Thanks...

I suspect those are the states Trump will come in second.
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2016 01:48 AM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP any chance you could update and keep this thread alive as the race progresses
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2016 08:13 AM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP....even if Trump is CLOSE to the the 1237....the Republican party cannot deny him the nomination.
...not without all hell breaking loose.

If he makes it to 1175-1200-ish....that will be enough.

:trpright:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2016 08:17 AM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP any chance you could update and keep this thread alive as the race progresses
 Quoting: Tollaroo


bumpbumpbump
Interested_1

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03/09/2016 01:12 PM

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP any chance you could update and keep this thread alive as the race progresses
 Quoting: Tollaroo


bumpbumpbump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33924712


Awesome thread. Appreciate the work that went into it! Missed it when you first posted it.
Take the red pill now...later it will come as a suppository.
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2016 06:24 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
What is the delegate total for each person running right now?
Tree of Life

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03/10/2016 12:34 AM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
For months I have watched 1,000 pundits say Trump is dead, he can't win. I have watched 17 candidates and their Superpacs spend over $200 million in attack ads to kill Trump. I have watched the GOP and DNC working together to destroy him. I have watched ALL the TV networks, Cable Channels, and 99% of the newspapers doing all they can do to sway the voters away from Trump. I have seen Trolls on social media and forums attacking anyone who is pro Trump. I have seen the Pope, Mexico, China and Saudie Arabia attack Trump. I have seen Romney, Ryan, McConnell and a host of REPUBLICAN politicians attack Trump.

You want to know why Trump is still the Frontrunner after All that? It's because TRUMP IS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

img36x
 Quoting: PACNWGUY-01


bump
clappa!
bump
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