The 3/15/2016 SUPER THREESDAY Five State Assault Thread and Drinking Game - Watch Live!

Alex Seitz-Wald: WOW! Among Cuyahoga County potential early voters, 15.6%(!) of Dems asked for GOP ballots . Trump?* -

Why is Jerry Springer on CNN talking smack about Trump?

Saying entertainers shouldn't be politicians. Springer said it was impossible for someone in entertainment to lead people. Funny how he didn't mention once how the Terminator became the Gov. of California. Funny how he didn't mention how President Ronald Reagan was once an actor.

Hell, Springer was once a MAYOR of a city in Ohio and became famous in the 90s for his show.

Jerry Springer sounds like a HATER.

Tonight, the Trump Force will begin aerial bombardment operations over the States of Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri.

I'm worried about my state Illinois. Cubs owner ricketts family has been airing negative Trump ads all day today.

here is one word for ya, Jew

I think I will be drinking grasshoppers this evening, that way I can have both my ice cream and liquor too...

Go Trump!!!



Prayers for Mr. Trump's and his family's safety...

Hitlery/Bernie goons trying to screw over Trump?

Tonight, the Trump Force will begin aerial bombardment operations over the States of Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri.



Targeted will be the evil Establishment forces led by Colonel Maplebooger, Sergeant Quaaludequeer, and Private Ksuck Nobody the Third (esquire).

And when the sorties are complete, all that will remain will be smoking, gaping, filthy, shattered holes... much like the one in Sergeant Qualludequeer's gay ass.

RIP RINOS

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TRUMP 2016!
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What’s At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries

We preview the races in Florida, Ohio and everywhere else.

By Harry Enten

2016 Election 12:53 PM Mar 14, 2016

This could be it, folks. The Republican presidential primary may be settled — or at least a lot clearer — on Tuesday. Republicans will vote in six contests. Donald Trump is looking to stay on track to win a majority of states, if not delegates. Marco Rubio and John Kasich could be making their last stands. And Ted Cruz is hoping he’s in a two-man race with Trump come Wednesday. A lot is at stake, so let’s go through the contests one by one. (Also, check out my preview of the Democratic contests <snip - who gives a shit.)

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Florida primary

99 delegates

Winner-take-all [link to www.thegreenpapers.com]

<snip>

Florida is the biggest prize on Tuesday, and it looks like Trump is going to win it. Despite Rubio calling the Sunshine State home, Trump has led every single poll [link to projects.fivethirtyeight.com] taken there this year. Trump should do well in the northern part of the state [link to mcimaps.com] a culturally conservative region that tends to vote like Alabama and Georgia, where Trump won handily [link to www.nytimes.com] .

He should also perform well with older migrants from the Northeast [link to www.sun-sentinel.com] who live in southern Florida. Rubio, for his part, is likely to draw a disproportionate share of his support from the Gold Coast in the southeast [link to www.theledger.com] .

Don’t be surprised if the polls showing a single-digit Trump lead (instead of a double-digit lead) end up being accurate. Cuban voters — who are projected to make up 5 percent to 10 percent [link to apps.washingtonpost.com] of Republican voters in Florida — have historically been difficult [link to www.publicpolicypolling.com] to poll [link to www.cnn.com] and surveys that don’t properly account for them will be missing Rubio’s core constituency. Still, all the polls have Rubio trailing, and it’s difficult to see how he continues his campaign if he loses his home state.

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North Carolina primary

72 delegates

Proportional [link to www.thegreenpapers.com]

<snip>

This is the only truly proportional state voting on the GOP side Tuesday, and there is no threshold to qualify for delegates. All of the candidates will win delegates in the Tar Heel State. Trump has led in every survey [link to projects.fivethirtyeight.com] conducted in North Carolina this year, but his support has varied greatly from poll to poll.

Some peg Trump’s support in the low 30s, while one poll from SurveyUSA [link to www.highpoint.edu] gave him 48 percent. Given that Trump won only 32.5 percent in the South Carolina primary to the south and 34.8 percent in the Virginia primary to the north, the polls in the lower 30s may be closer to the mark. If Trump doesn’t make it out of the low 30s, Cruz has a chance to win. He has generally polled in the high 20s. Still, I must emphasize that this race is about delegates, and a candidate doesn’t get extra delegates for winning with 32 percent versus losing with 32 percent.

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Illinois primary

69 delegates (54 district, 15 statewide)

Loophole for the district level [link to www.thegreenpapers.com] ; winner-take-all statewide

<snip>

This is perhaps the most confusing state voting Tuesday. Trump is polling at only about 30 percent to 35 percent in most surveys. But Cruz, Kasich and Rubio are splitting the non-Trump vote, according to the polls. That could potentially make it difficult for the anti-Trump constituency to properly cast the most effective anti-Trump vote.

Adding to the confusion: The vast majority of delegates are determined by the vote in each congressional district. Voters in each district elect three delegates directly [link to www.weareillinois.org] instead of voting for a presidential candidate (though each delegate’s preferred candidate is listed on the ballot).

So, voters need to vote up to four times — once for their candidate of choice in the statewide race and then for each of the three congressional district delegates they prefer. Cruz is probably going to do best downstate, while Kasich and Rubio are more likely to find strength in and around Chicago. Will voters sort through this mess and vote strategically, coalescing behind a single anti-Trump vessel? It’s difficult to say. As long as Trump holds his 35 percent of the vote, he’ll probably win most of the delegates in Illinois in part by taking the 15 delegates awarded to the statewide winner.

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Ohio primary

66 delegates

Winner-take-all [link to www.thegreenpapers.com]

<snip>

This is Kasich’s last stand. If he doesn’t win, his campaign is over. But Kasich is in a better position to win Ohio than Rubio is to win Florida: Kasich led in two polls released in the past week. Not only that, but Kasich did fairly well in Kentucky [link to nytimes.com] and Michigan [link to nytimes.com] in the counties bordering Ohio. One wild card in this contest is that Rubio’s communications director basically said that [link to www.cnn.com] Rubio supporters should vote for Kasich in Ohio to stop Trump.

Although Rubio’s numbers have fallen in the state over the past few weeks, any Rubio fans moving into the Kasich column could make a big difference. The importance of this primary to the larger Republican race is difficult to overstate. According to my math (and that of Republican Benjamin Ginsberg [link to www.politico.com] , who basically wrote the GOP’s delegate rules), Trump is unlikely to reach a majority of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination if he loses Ohio.

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Missouri primary

52 delegates (40 district, 12 statewide)

Winner-take-all [link to www.thegreenpapers.com] on the district and statewide level

This could be Cruz’s best state on Tuesday, though there has been little polling so it’s hard to know exactly what’s going on in the Show-Me State. As in almost every other state, Trump is leading the field with support in the 30s. But unlike in Illinois, Cruz is in a clear second place in Missouri. Cruz has also done disproportionately well in the region. He won Iowa [link to uselectionatlas.org] to Missouri’s north and Kansas to the west, and he came in a close second in Arkansas to the south.

Cruz also was competing with Rubio to be the anti-Trump in those states, but with Rubio’s struggles, Cruz will get a clearer shot at Trump in Missouri. That said, those contests were not open primaries, like Missouri’s, a format that has tended to favor Trump. If Trump wins in Missouri [link to fivethirtyeight.com] he may be on his way to winning every state on Tuesday. Either way, there’s a good chance of a delegate split in the state because most are awarded by congressional district...

<snip>

Read more at: [link to fivethirtyeight.com]

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The Northern Mariana Islands also caucuses tonight, with 9 delegates up for grabs.

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WATCH LIVE!
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[link to www.cnn.com]

[link to www.msnbc.com]

[link to abc.go.com]

[link to www.nbc.com]

[link to www.cbs.com]

[link to www.hulkusc.com]

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RESULTS
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Florida: [link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

Illinois: [link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

Missouri: [link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

North Carolina: [link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

Ohio: [link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

Overall: [link to www.nytimes.com]

[link to www.washingtonpost.com (secure)]

[link to www.politico.com]

[link to www.cnn.com]

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Drinking game rules:

They say:

Surging ahead - It's too close to call - Gaining - Falling behind - Plus or minus - Eligible - Ineligible - Momentum - Come-back - Translate - Expectations - Let's be clear - Lawsuit - Tone - Landslide - Fraud/Voter Fraud - Liar - Trillions - The Fact Of The Matter - Swing State - Flyover country - Flag - David Duke - KKK

DRINK!

Drinking trigger word suggestions and alternate live streams will be added to the Op as you guys give them.

Drink water like Trump if you must drink.

For you die hards, get RU-21 to help save your 'noodle." Don't ruin your life and die like Trump's older brother did. Trump is a teetotaler.

Ohhhh.....that's such a good idea Davvi! Maybe I'll make mudslides!

Why is Jerry Springer on CNN talking smack about Trump?

Saying entertainers shouldn't be politicians. Springer said it was impossible for someone in entertainment to lead people. Funny how he didn't mention once how the Terminator became the Gov. of California. Funny how he didn't mention how President Ronald Reagan was once an actor.

Hell, Springer was once a MAYOR of a city in Ohio and became famous in the 90s for his show.

Jerry Springer sounds like a HATER.

My husband and I voted in Florida for TRUMP!!

here is one word for ya, Jew

here is one word for ya, Jew

Jerry Springer is one of the people who are destroying our country by promoting horrible values and life without morality. I can see why he wouldn't want Trump to win. If Trump wins Jerry's sick and deviant way of making a living comes to an end as American culture heals itself.

Update on my work poll -

My "trump scares me" female person - voted early and did not vote Trump. I assume Kasich but she didn't say.

My "trump is cool, he'd be good" male person - voted for Kasich. He decided Trump was a kamikaze.

My "yeah! trump is good" female person - has decided to NOT vote at all.

And I'm sure the Cruz voter is voting for him...doubt he's wairvered at all. But he's not here today.

And the elderly voter hasn't said what she's decided.


Trump may just be too big of a personality for Ohioans. In which case, the state will go to Kasich. That's barring any funny business by the dem kids. They could come in and vote Santorum or Huckabee en masse and destroy all the predictions.

What a buzz-kill.

Ugh, this is why we can't have nice things. People are dumb.

This is really disheartening. I guess it needs to get even worse for people to give even half a shit.

Scrump is an alcoholic and he is promoting alcoholism with his glp threads. Stand up to Scrump.

Yes!!! I'll be checking in! Good job Scrump! Get this shit pinned, let the party begin!!! I've already stated, if Trump sweeps tonight, I'm breaking out the Dom!