Isaeli Defense Forces (IDF) says Syria not planning for war with Israel in summer

[link to www.haaretz.com]
Mon., December 11, 2006 Kislev 20, 5767
IDF: Syria not planning for war with Israel in summer
By Amos Harel and Gideon Alon


The Israel Defense Forces has no intelligence regarding Syrian plans to initiate a war against Israel next summer, the army announced last night in an official statement.

This followed a day of contradictory statements regarding reports originating from Military Intelligence and the Northern Command.

IDF sources made it clear that assessments of the situation in the north are continuing, and preparations for a possible scenario involving the outbreak of war there next summer are part of a "working assumption" on the basis of which the forces' readiness can be improved.

The head of research at Military Intelligence, Brigadier General Yossi Beiditch, presented the government with a report on the situation along the northern border during the cabinet's weekly meeting.

Beiditch told the ministers that Syria's President Bashar Assad "is preparing the Syrian army for the possibility of a military confrontation with Israel, but on the other hand does not discount the possibility of a diplomatic settlement."

The head of research stressed that the Syrian leader has issued orders to expedite the production of long-range ballistic missiles and to move air-defense missiles closer to the border with Israel and the Golan Heights.

The senior intelligence officer added that from Assad's point of view, there is no contradiction in operating on both levels.

During the past two weeks, Assad has been involved in intensive diplomatic activities, Beiditch said, because he feels that a window of opportunity on the international level is available to Damascus, and he is trying to take advantage of this.

In meetings of the intelligence community in Israel in recent weeks, the view of most participants is that Assad is in no rush for war. They have also concluded that he is trying to find a way to move closer to the West and the United States - even if this drives a wedge between Syria and Iran.

The news that emerged from the cabinet meeting yesterday gave the impression that the army is expecting a war with Syria in the near future.

Senior military sources were quick to clarify that MI's head of research was addressing "trends," not specific events, and claimed that the grapevine exaggerated his statements.

Later yesterday, the IDF Spokesman announced that the army had no operational intelligence on aggressive intentions by the enemy, but added that "the IDF is conducting an orderly process of improving readiness and operational preparedness by the summer 2007."

Also yesterday, a senior officer of the Northern Command met with journalists and said that reports in recent weeks regarding the possibility of war with Syria are "irresponsible statements that are not based on intelligence."

The officer said that setting a target date is for internal army use, and is not based on solid intelligence information.

Describing the date as a point of departure, he added that the IDF was intensifying training with emphasis on the readiness of the Northern Command.

In addition to the training of reservist units, the IDF has also bolstered its forces in the north.

The officer said that on the Syrian side of the border there have also been movements of forces, particularly on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. However, the IDF interprets the Syrian moves as defensive in nature.

However, Israeli sources say that Syria is continuing to permit the flow of arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon, in an effort to replenish the arsenal of the Shi'ite organization.

While there are no apparent preparations by Hezbollah to initiate a campaign against Israel in the near future, most of the focus is placed on the possibility that other elements may try to cause a conflagration in in the north.

Attention is given to the possibility that groups affiliated with Al-Qaida - global jihadists - will target United Nations peacekeepers, or that terrorists belonging to radical Palestinian organizations would try to attack along the border.

The situation along the border has changed radically since the days before the outbreak of war in July. In place of the Hezbollah forces are four brigades of Lebanon's armed forces, deployed south of the Litani River, and bolstered by more than 10,000 peacekeepers of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon).

However, the IDF is concerned about the failure of the Lebanese army to prevent the rearmament of Hezbollah, especially the possible cooperation between Shi'ite soldiers in the Lebanese army and the radical Shi'ite group.

The IDF praised the work of the French and Spanish battalions in the United Nations force, noting that in some cases the European troops had destroyed Hezbollah bunkers and arms caches.