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Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 52680061
United States
12/30/2016 08:23 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Planes "vanish" off radar when they crash.
Where's me jumper

User ID: 63472500
Ireland
12/30/2016 08:39 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Thread a day or two ago about a plane vanishing in Canada as well. No info at all on that one ...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73647532
United States
12/30/2016 08:40 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Here is what seems to be a very informed comment from our local rag concerning this incident:

"The weather upon the airplane's departure was approximately:
03:45 UTC / 22:45 local time (I trimmed off the extraneous details):
KBKL 300345Z 26023G32KT 6SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN021 OVC026 01/M02 A2973

-3 items in that METAR strike me right away: high surface winds, light snow, and mist. With surface winds gusting to 32, I'd bet they were approaching if not greater than 40-50kts climbing to 3000ft, which was the airplane's last track via flightaware. That would have been a very bumpy and disorienting ride, even in a CJ4.

-The pilot was [obviously] departing at night and received an initial turn out over the water. That's a very challenging environment period, let alone, at the end of [perhaps] a work day (they had departed KOSU at 1730), then a flight to KBKL, attended a basket ball game, and then were faced with another leg home to KOSU. While the visibility was reported at 6SM (which isn't that great at night to begin with), my rule of thumb (with rain, snow, mist, etc), is to take the reported vis and cut it in half; that's likely what you're actually going to "see", particularly at night. With the ceiling reported at 2100 AGL, overcast at 2600 AGL, the pilot had likely "visually experienced" a very rough climbing turn in the dark and then popped into IMC when the last track was received at an altitude of approximately 3100ft. By "visually experienced," I mean that the instrument panel was probably very difficult to read followed by the loss of all outside visual reference (which likely wasn't much to begin with) as they entered the clouds.

-However, perhaps none of my conjecture was an issue at all but the pilot was suddenly faced with an emergency via a loss of an engine. Had the engine anti-ice system been turned on or had it failed? The wing/stab de-icing system was probably in the "auto" setting, but had it failed? Was there a loss of an engine while in the turn and/or spatial disorientation followed by loss of control?

-The last radar return showed the airplane descending at over 3,000ft/min. That seems very telling that the airplane had [somehow] ended up in an unusual attitude, which was either not immediately recognized or "denied" (spatial disorientation) followed by loss of control leading to water impact.

-Of note is that the CJ4 is a single-pilot certificated airplane. However, how much single-pilot flight time did the pilot have in this airplane...at night...over water...in limited visibility...entering IMC...dealing possibly with an emergency...ugh, the list goes on and on."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73696307
United States
12/30/2016 09:08 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Here is what seems to be a very informed comment from our local rag concerning this incident:

"The weather upon the airplane's departure was approximately:
03:45 UTC / 22:45 local time (I trimmed off the extraneous details):
KBKL 300345Z 26023G32KT 6SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN021 OVC026 01/M02 A2973

-3 items in that METAR strike me right away: high surface winds, light snow, and mist. With surface winds gusting to 32, I'd bet they were approaching if not greater than 40-50kts climbing to 3000ft, which was the airplane's last track via flightaware. That would have been a very bumpy and disorienting ride, even in a CJ4.

-The pilot was [obviously] departing at night and received an initial turn out over the water. That's a very challenging environment period, let alone, at the end of [perhaps] a work day (they had departed KOSU at 1730), then a flight to KBKL, attended a basket ball game, and then were faced with another leg home to KOSU. While the visibility was reported at 6SM (which isn't that great at night to begin with), my rule of thumb (with rain, snow, mist, etc), is to take the reported vis and cut it in half; that's likely what you're actually going to "see", particularly at night. With the ceiling reported at 2100 AGL, overcast at 2600 AGL, the pilot had likely "visually experienced" a very rough climbing turn in the dark and then popped into IMC when the last track was received at an altitude of approximately 3100ft. By "visually experienced," I mean that the instrument panel was probably very difficult to read followed by the loss of all outside visual reference (which likely wasn't much to begin with) as they entered the clouds.

-However, perhaps none of my conjecture was an issue at all but the pilot was suddenly faced with an emergency via a loss of an engine. Had the engine anti-ice system been turned on or had it failed? The wing/stab de-icing system was probably in the "auto" setting, but had it failed? Was there a loss of an engine while in the turn and/or spatial disorientation followed by loss of control?

-The last radar return showed the airplane descending at over 3,000ft/min. That seems very telling that the airplane had [somehow] ended up in an unusual attitude, which was either not immediately recognized or "denied" (spatial disorientation) followed by loss of control leading to water impact.

-Of note is that the CJ4 is a single-pilot certificated airplane. However, how much single-pilot flight time did the pilot have in this airplane...at night...over water...in limited visibility...entering IMC...dealing possibly with an emergency...ugh, the list goes on and on."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73647532


This is a very good assessment in my opinion.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 45308566
United States
12/30/2016 09:11 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Didn't know it was a Cessna

That changes things

Slim, but possible chance they are alive
beeches

User ID: 72502142
United States
12/30/2016 09:19 PM

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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
bump, sadly.
Covid WAS nothing... so now Soros orchestrates bricklaying
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 69421110
United States
12/30/2016 10:11 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Didn't know it was a Cessna

That changes things

Slim, but possible chance they are alive
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45308566


Yes, they impacted water at 300mph. I'm sure they are fine.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23637172
United States
12/30/2016 10:34 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Flying on a commercial plane is safe.




Flying a small single engine plane has high fatality rates. A life insurance guy told me it ups your policy way more than if you ride a motorcycle.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73699282
Australia
12/30/2016 10:43 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Here is what seems to be a very informed comment from our local rag concerning this incident:

"The weather upon the airplane's departure was approximately:
03:45 UTC / 22:45 local time (I trimmed off the extraneous details):
KBKL 300345Z 26023G32KT 6SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN021 OVC026 01/M02 A2973

-3 items in that METAR strike me right away: high surface winds, light snow, and mist. With surface winds gusting to 32, I'd bet they were approaching if not greater than 40-50kts climbing to 3000ft, which was the airplane's last track via flightaware. That would have been a very bumpy and disorienting ride, even in a CJ4.

-The pilot was [obviously] departing at night and received an initial turn out over the water. That's a very challenging environment period, let alone, at the end of [perhaps] a work day (they had departed KOSU at 1730), then a flight to KBKL, attended a basket ball game, and then were faced with another leg home to KOSU. While the visibility was reported at 6SM (which isn't that great at night to begin with), my rule of thumb (with rain, snow, mist, etc), is to take the reported vis and cut it in half; that's likely what you're actually going to "see", particularly at night. With the ceiling reported at 2100 AGL, overcast at 2600 AGL, the pilot had likely "visually experienced" a very rough climbing turn in the dark and then popped into IMC when the last track was received at an altitude of approximately 3100ft. By "visually experienced," I mean that the instrument panel was probably very difficult to read followed by the loss of all outside visual reference (which likely wasn't much to begin with) as they entered the clouds.

-However, perhaps none of my conjecture was an issue at all but the pilot was suddenly faced with an emergency via a loss of an engine. Had the engine anti-ice system been turned on or had it failed? The wing/stab de-icing system was probably in the "auto" setting, but had it failed? Was there a loss of an engine while in the turn and/or spatial disorientation followed by loss of control?

-The last radar return showed the airplane descending at over 3,000ft/min. That seems very telling that the airplane had [somehow] ended up in an unusual attitude, which was either not immediately recognized or "denied" (spatial disorientation) followed by loss of control leading to water impact.

-Of note is that the CJ4 is a single-pilot certificated airplane. However, how much single-pilot flight time did the pilot have in this airplane...at night...over water...in limited visibility...entering IMC...dealing possibly with an emergency...ugh, the list goes on and on."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73647532


was the pilot IFR rated ?
nutmeg

User ID: 70579162
United States
12/30/2016 10:54 PM

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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Didn't know it was a Cessna

That changes things

Slim, but possible chance they are alive
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45308566


Yes, they impacted water at 300mph. I'm sure they are fine.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69421110


WAVES 8 TO 11 FEET SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET. SEE LAKE ERIE OPEN LAKES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF CLEVELAND 39 DEGREES AND OFF ERIE 36 DEGREES.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 69421110
United States
12/30/2016 11:15 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Hey dickheads, this was a citation twin jet, of course he was IFR. I'm gonna guess this one is pilot error of some kind. Could have iced up pitot tubes. Pretty green to be flying a jet.
The Comedian :D

User ID: 72729646
United States
12/30/2016 11:37 PM
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Re: Missing aircraft in Ohio. Vanishes off radar
Awesome movie.


 Quoting: The Comedian :D


One of the best. Wish I owned it.
 Quoting: GGAllin


Dude, it's free on the interwebs.
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