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Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction

 
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Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
With Iran now threatening America with new missiles and the United States hunting down agents of the mullahs in Iraq, the conflict in the Middle East is again threatening to escalate. Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei warns in a SPIEGEL ONLINE interview: "The Middle East is in the worst condition I have ever seen."


AP
Mohamed ElBaradei: "A durable, peaceful solution will not come through pressure only."

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The United States government is threatening to capture or kill Iranian agents in Iraq and Tehran has announced it will install thousands of centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium in Natanz. Are we witnessing a dramatic escalation of the conflict?


ElBaradei: If we continue on the same course, we could see a spiral of escalation. There is an urgent need for creative diplomacy and leadership. Diplomacy is pressure and engagement, and I very much hope that we can find the right balance. A durable, peaceful solution will not come through pressure only. It will ultimately come at the negotiating table.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You don't sound very optimistic.

ElBaradei: The United Nations resolution itself recognizes the importance of finding a negotiated solution that will allow for the development of relations and cooperation with Iran. Clearly the sanctions were the expression of concern by the international community. I think the message was heard loud and clear in Iran.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: So why not simply wait until Iran gives in and stops its nuclear program?

ElBaradei: My concern is that if we only focus on sanctions, that might lead to confrontation on both sides, ending in an uncontrolled chain reaction. My worry right now is that each side is sticking to their guns: The international community is saying "sanctions or bust," and Iran is saying "nuclear enrichment capability or bust." Ultimately sanctions are useful to send a message, but they have to be followed by an effort to create conditions for negotiations.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: So how could this happen?


ElBaradei: I hope now we can put our heads together. I have been calling for a simultaneous time-out: That means Iran would take a break from all its enrichment-related work and at the same time, the UN Security Council would put a hold on implementing sanctions. We could agree through dialogue on the basic objectives and principles to govern the negotiations and then have a three-month time-out in the hope of achieving a comprehensive settlement which would not only cover nuclear issues, but security, economic and political concerns as well.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Do you see any signs that Iran would consider stopping its enrichment activities even for a short period?

ElBaradei: Iran is very keen to see an affirmation of its right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nobody is questioning this right, what is at stake is confidence building. Until confidence is restored, Iran should put a hold on enrichment-related activities, and to restore this confidence Iran needs to commit to being fully transparent and to start giving the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the full access we need for verification. This includes inspections under the Additional Protocol.


SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is there general support for the idea of a time-out?

ElBaradei: I hope the dialogue will start this weekend in the margins of the Security Conference in Munich. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be there, Russian President Vladimir Putin, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Ali Larijani, the head of the Iranian National Security Council. I encourage everybody to seize the opportunity.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: But it seems to be very clear that the US government is convinced that the only thing that can help is to apply more pressure on Tehran.

ElBaradei: There are differences of opinion about tactics, how to find the right balance between pressure and incentives. It's not an easy issue, it's a question of policy judgement. I personally believe that in a situation like the one you have in the Middle East today, where it's like a ball of fire, you have to be very cautious. We cannot afford to add oil to that fire. The more we have confrontation, the more the Middle East will become militant and angry. The earlier we move into a conciliatory mood the better for everybody.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: So you're hoping for less hostile rhetoric from each side?

Baradei
: Absolutely. We should not ride a train wreck. The Middle East is in the worst condition I have ever seen. I have just seen reports that North Korea is moving to start a process of nuclear disarmament. That only came about through negotiations -- direct talks -- that included the United States. So why not engage Iran in the same way?

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Iran just announced that some inspectors are no longer allowed to enter the country: This includes specialists from countries who pushed for sanctions, Germany for example. How long will you be able to track what they are really doing in Natanz?

ElBaradei: It's regrettable that Iran restricted the number of inspectors and we wrote to them and asked them to reconsider. It restricts our flexibility. I hope the Iranians will understand that the more transparency there, the better it will be for them. But I can also say that there are over 100 designated inspectors accepted by the Iranians. So we have enough people to do the job. We were just in Natanz and will soon go again.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is Iran seeking to start enriching uranium on an industrial scale?

ElBaradei: The Iranians themselves said that they want to install 3,000 centrifuges and are now moving forward in installing them. They call it the second phase. How long it will take to install and operate them will be part of my report to the IAEA Board of Governors on Feb. 21. So the window of opportunity for a time-out is very narrow. If my report is negative in the absence of any movement on the part of Iran then the Security Council will work for more sanctions. That would mean a further escalation that will become more and more difficult to scale back.
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Ooooh, see the fire is sweepin' Our very streets today...
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Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2007 09:20 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
ElBaradei is a thoughtful analyst of miiddle eastern affairs and I believe he is correct. i can't believe that there are no comments on this.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2007 09:25 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Even the Baker Commission has said that we need to talk.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2007 09:28 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Good post SHR. But I truly believe that it's totally iirelevant whether Iran complies beyond expectation, if the US wants to attack they will.
Iraq was the same, except Hussein took it up the ass and they were still attacked.
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02/09/2007 09:43 PM

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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
ElBaradei is a thoughtful analyst of miiddle eastern affairs and I believe he is correct. i can't believe that there are no comments on this.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 160332

It ain't on You Tube yet, sad isn't it.
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Ooooh, see the fire is sweepin' Our very streets today...
Burns like a red coal carpet, Mad bulls lost the way...
War, children, it's just a shot away...it's just a shot away....
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2007 09:47 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
except Hussein took it up the ass and they were still attacked.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 167681

I think he even surrendered.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2007 10:10 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
I dont believe this canor will be stopped - well not except if russia gets on board to halt the iranians - but seeing as how russia has egged them on all this time and stands to profit immensely from the ensuing world chaos - unlikely. The US/Israel must stop Iran or else nukes are going to end up in US cities and/or Israel at some point, and the mullahs see this as their big chance to prepare the stage for the 12th immam.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2007 10:22 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
I dont believe this canor will be stopped - well not except if russia gets on board to halt the iranians - but seeing as how russia has egged them on all this time and stands to profit immensely from the ensuing world chaos - unlikely. The US/Israel must stop Iran or else nukes are going to end up in US cities and/or Israel at some point, and the mullahs see this as their big chance to prepare the stage for the 12th immam.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 193062


How will Russia profit?
RythymRing

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02/09/2007 10:31 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
With Iran now threatening America with new missiles and the United States hunting down agents of the mullahs in Iraq, the conflict in the Middle East is again threatening to escalate. Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei warns in a SPIEGEL ONLINE interview: "The Middle East is in the worst condition I have ever seen."
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If Iran has massive amounts of troops in Canada and Mexico, yes, America would BE THREATENED. Other then that I don`t buy it
Sunny shit starter & stirrer, I shit the shit, My shit is stirred not shaken, Winner of the golden shit-stirrer award, Calling someone "a bit of a shit stirrer" in Ireland is usually a term of endearment rather than an insult.
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02/09/2007 10:44 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
With Iran now threatening America with new missiles and the United States hunting down agents of the mullahs in Iraq, the conflict in the Middle East is again threatening to escalate. Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei warns in a SPIEGEL ONLINE interview: "The Middle East is in the worst condition I have ever seen."
---------------------------------------------------------
If Iran has massive amounts of troops in Canada and Mexico, yes, America would BE THREATENED. Other then that I don`t buy it
 Quoting: RythymRing

Iran is a notorious sponsor of terror - even the europeans admit that - and so are a real threat to their DECLARED enemies, the US and Israel. Threats are not measured in troops massed at borders anymore I'm afraid, with nuclear weapons enormous numbers of people, even whole nations could go up in smoke. Iran should not be allowed nuclear capability until a less violent and disruptive regime assumes control..
Shadow

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02/09/2007 10:56 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Still waiting for any evidence Iran has a weapons program. So far, all we've been fed is WND and JPost allegations.

Meanwhile, NKorea.....is being offered aid in the form of energy. By the US.
Over the side and damn the barracuda
Mathmatician
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02/09/2007 11:01 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Moderator, eh? Good to see you mr SHR. I'm glad that your form of rationality will be used as a form of moderation on this board, in the spirit of balance that is. It is also apparent that you have learned and will allow alternative reasoning, no matter how extreme; for without that reasonig there would be no balance, yes? It seems, as well, that you have droped the need for name calling or non sincical intellectual hostility, which often resulted in name calling, this is a breath of fresh as well, thanks! Good Day SHR!
Shadow

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02/09/2007 11:14 PM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
GLP has balance. I have no problem with SHR as a mod.
Over the side and damn the barracuda
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02/09/2007 11:46 PM

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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Moderator, eh? Good to see you mr SHR. I'm glad that your form of rationality will be used as a form of moderation on this board, in the spirit of balance that is. It is also apparent that you have learned and will allow alternative reasoning, no matter how extreme; for without that reasonig there would be no balance, yes? It seems, as well, that you have droped the need for name calling or non sincical intellectual hostility, which often resulted in name calling, this is a breath of fresh as well, thanks! Good Day SHR!
 Quoting: Mathmatician 163513

Welllll, I still have my moments, LMAO!
Been awhile and yes Moderater now. As you can see no piles of dead flamed to death posters strewn about and I've always entertained alternative reasoning, even my own. Good to see ya.
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Ooooh, see the fire is sweepin' Our very streets today...
Burns like a red coal carpet, Mad bulls lost the way...
War, children, it's just a shot away...it's just a shot away....
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02/09/2007 11:46 PM

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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
GLP has balance. I have no problem with SHR as a mod.
 Quoting: Shadow

Someone has to balance YOU!
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Ooooh, see the fire is sweepin' Our very streets today...
Burns like a red coal carpet, Mad bulls lost the way...
War, children, it's just a shot away...it's just a shot away....
Mathmatician
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02/10/2007 12:02 AM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Moderator, eh? Good to see you mr SHR. I'm glad that your form of rationality will be used as a form of moderation on this board, in the spirit of balance that is. It is also apparent that you have learned and will allow alternative reasoning, no matter how extreme; for without that reasonig there would be no balance, yes? It seems, as well, that you have droped the need for name calling or non sincical intellectual hostility, which often resulted in name calling, this is a breath of fresh as well, thanks! Good Day SHR!

Welllll, I still have my moments, LMAO!
Been awhile and yes Moderater now. As you can see no piles of dead flamed to death posters strewn about and I've always entertained alternative reasoning, even my own. Good to see ya.
 Quoting: SHR

If I may tread the un traveled path a moment just in rememberance and in ode to the good ole dayz when 911 was such an issue of collective import, think you, or have you the same intenesity with respect to events and their details as back then, ole friend?
Wasayo

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02/10/2007 01:42 AM
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Re: Mohamed ElBaradei Warns US and Iran against an Unstoppable Chain Reaction
Moderator, eh? Good to see you mr SHR. I'm glad that your form of rationality will be used as a form of moderation on this board, in the spirit of balance that is. It is also apparent that you have learned and will allow alternative reasoning, no matter how extreme; for without that reasonig there would be no balance, yes? It seems, as well, that you have droped the need for name calling or non sincical intellectual hostility, which often resulted in name calling, this is a breath of fresh as well, thanks! Good Day SHR!
 Quoting: Mathmatician 163513


Right on, SHR!

Thank you for posting this.

bump important and relevant.
"Every word of God is pure: He is a shield unto them that put their trust in Him." Prov. 30:5





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