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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

 
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
The lights at night.....somebody had an excellent analysis I don't feel like looking for, that they are using grouting which sets in UV light. Dam grouting uses material much like a dentist uses. I had fillings where they shined UV light on them to harden the filling.

They would have to grout at night because it would harden too quickly in the sun. They need to fill cracks and smooth them and it takes time, too much time for daylight.

I would go with this obvious explanation and skip the spooky stuff.

The question is if the grout will stick what with all that hydrostatic pressure pushing on the cracks.

1.1 billion and they are filling cavities at night by flashlight.....
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Hmmm that is very interesting, but it's gettin late in the game!
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
filling cavities at night by flashlight.....
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Sounds like a fun thing to do
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
would it be possible to pin this so we can keep an eye on it until the storm passes?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 811261


NEXT PINE IS RIGHT AF-TUH IT BLOWS..OR BREACHES...
 Quoting: UH 43489005


BROTHER UH,

HERE IS SOMETHING TO SUPPLEMENT YOUR GROG!

CRANK IT UP! xmit


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


HEY...IF U HAVE NOT SEEN MY A.O.C./TOOL/BURGER THREAD..IT IS WELL WORTH YOUR TIME AND ATTENTION..! GOOD LAUGHS TOO!
 Quoting: UH 42156718
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
IT'S SPELLED 'WORLOCK'...SIR..
 Quoting: UH 40583511


WELL, I'M SORRY FOR MISSPELLING THAT! AS I WAS SAYING TO MIDWEST, I DO NOT KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THAT REALM.

BROTHER UH, ARE YOU A WORLOCK? IF YOU ARE OR AREN'T, PLEASE OFFER YOUR OPINION ON REMOTE VIEWING!

THANKS IN ADVANCE! 5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


REMOTE VIEWING IS REAL..ASK THE RUSSIANS...BUT, YOU'LL HAVE TO ASK THEM IN 'RUSSIAN'...

MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS..REAL...GOOD MOVIE.

NEXT!
 Quoting: uh 42156718


BROTHER UH,

THANKS FOR YOUR INPUT! 5a

BTW, BROTHER UH...ARE YOU DRUNKER THAN HELL?

WHETHER YOU ARE OR AREN'T, WHAT ARE YOU GETTING BUZZED UP ON?

WHITE RUSSIAN?

OR

BLACK RUSSIAN?

BROTHER UH...YA GOTTA WATCH AND LISTEN TO THIS...I'DLOVE TO RUN AWAY WITH THIS RUSSIAN! 5a

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
DESCRIPTION FOR THE ABOVE VIDEO!

CRANK IT UP! xmit

MARIA SHARAPOVA - RUNAWAY - JEFFERSON STARSHIP

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
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05/15/2019 12:47 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Light rain coming down, my gutters are a flowin'

Here we go...

seal
Oroville tards we ride!
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
2017 12.8 inches of rain that made lake Oroville jump from 850' to 902'. That is a verifiable record showing 1" of rain ups the lake by 4 feet. With 11 feet to top the ES
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
[link to twitter.com (secure)]


Rep. Doug LaMalfa
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On Monday, Oroville Mayor Chuck Reynolds and I visited the Oroville Dam spillway with staff from @CA_DWR to receive an update following its first use in April. The newly reconstructed spillway is performing safely & in accordance with its design.
 Quoting: Amanda Lee


Rep Doug LaMafia?
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
Prayandprepare000

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


270,000 cfs in theory. It was starting to vibrate apart at 25,000.
Midwest Skeptic

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
GFS model, 10 day accumulated precipitation

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


hey Midwest sceptic.....


Unless this forecast ends up shifting quite a bit north we can't avoid more than 3 inches by may 25.

Weather patterns are capable of strange changes, but the failure to lower the lake now, and the gamble on less rain,proves how bad the spillway and or gates must be.

I appreciated your numbers and will accept the lower estimate as valid, and the same for a peak at 18 instead of 24 hours after rain. It will be a long ten days ahead. I hope your lower estimate is right. A one inch to 12 feet ratio would be awful.

As far as remote viewing goes, I would call it...if valid...a gift of prophecy from God. Even unbelievers in the bible like Balaam had that gift. Such prophecies are not uncommon these days and should draw us to prayer when there is such a strong image of disaster. Frankly I don't know how to pray right now. I ask God to save people downstream and help them, but my husband says all things considered maybe best the dam fails this year. By the way I am a she, lol.

Your imput has been much appreciated.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


To add a little detail to my calculations:

Per the Army Corp data a 14.5" rain event over 72 hours shoved about 1.5 million acre feet into the lake. (approximate, do NOT have the data in front of me). My calculated number was about 106,000 AF per inch of rain ... but that was based upon falling on totally saturated soil. (and of course the number would skew higher later in the rain event and lower in the early part of the rain event)

In the documentation there was also some data on DRY soil conditions ... but not nearly what was in the ACE data about SATURATED soil conditions, but it was that secondary data that allowed me to more closely tailor my run off projections per inch of rain to what the Lake should experience through the first few inches of a rain event that is falling on DRY soil.

Basically for the first inch of rain on DRY soil I calculated 25% of the 106,000 AF might actually reach the lake. For the next few inches that was bumped up to 50%. Of course once the soil becomes saturated, somewhere around the 5th to 7th inch, the run off per inch will be the same as if the soil was already saturated.

The key for me was the fact that under DRY soil conditions the REQUIRED RESERVE in the lake was ONLY 1/2 of what was required under PRE SATURATED soil conditions ... which means that for a 14.5 inch 72 hour rain event the soil itself has a large water carrying capacity, which the watershed will utilize during the early stages of any large Rain Event "IF" the soil is DRY.

Anyway working the AF numbers, with the available additional AF if storage available from 890 feet to 900 feet it ended up showing that theoretically it would take about 3.5+ inches of rain runoff (coming onto DRY soil) to raise the lake to 900 feet from 890 feet, which for margin of safety's sake I dialed back to 3 inches.

AT the full 106,000 AF /inch the lake rise is ABOVE my actual noted 4' rise per inch of rain in 2017 ... but remember, the 106,000 AF per inch of rain is based upon a 14.5 inch rain event occuring in a 72 hour period, which is more than what happened even in 2017.

As noted above ... I will try to get the actual math posted before the rain event hits.

Anything AT or OVER 2.5 inches of rain in the watershed and I personally would be getting out of Oroville, and all downstream low lying areas, IMMEDIATELY ... UNTIL the situation stabilized.

I would NOT wait for an evacuation order.
I would NOT wait for the Lake to fill to the top.
I would be proactive and LEAVE!!

You can buy yourself an extra 18 to 30 hours by leaving EARLY (IF the rain event is dropping 2.5 inches or more on the watershed) ... and you SHOULD!!

Last Edited by Midwest Skeptic on 05/15/2019 01:05 PM
Midwest Skeptic
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
PIC HIGHLIGHTING GATE PROBLEMS!

[link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

IT'S A REPEAT FROM EARLIER...IT'S WORTH REPEATING!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554

Steel fails from ductile fatigue cycling, so the cracks only grow when they use the gates. As long as they limit the number of open-close cycles they can limit the crack growth. Cracking is expected and starts long before failure happens, indeed "failure" typically happens because a part grows too large to function (because of stretching and/or cracking), not because it actually breaks. The behavior of watching cracks grow is standard procedure and works within a fairly large margin of certainty

HOWEVER

Something like this dam should be held to a much higher standard. Even a 1 % chance of sudden failure is totally unacceptable. A pipeline? No worries. Bridge? Okay, fine. Horrible if it fails, yes. Lives lost, most likely. But just the top third of this dam contains approximately 5 PETAJOULES of potential energy. Suddenly draining 2 million acrefeet from that dam would release as much energy as a 1 megaton nuke.

Extreme scenario? Yes. Unlikely even now? Probably, I don't have access to reliable information. Worth protecting against even the tiniest chance, at any cost? Absolutely.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77307297

bump
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
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Jack in VA
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Weather update: the drainage basin’s precipitation forecast has gone up again. We are now looking at 3 to 6 inches of rain and snow over the next 6 days. Big thunderstorms coming tomorrow in the PM. Friday mostly dry, but showers Sat/Sun/Mon. #OrovilleDam
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


DWR says it's rated to 270k CFS, but I don't think anyone actually believes that, that high a rate would blow up the feather river below.

They also say that it should never have to run above 160k CFS, even that, it'd likely blow apart a levee or 3 down below.

The have never actually run it above 25k CFS and when they did, they shut it down pretty quickly. Speculation as to why abounds.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


DWR says it's rated to 270k CFS, but I don't think anyone actually believes that, that high a rate would blow up the feather river below.

They also say that it should never have to run above 160k CFS, even that, it'd likely blow apart a levee or 3 down below.

The have never actually run it above 25k CFS and when they did, they shut it down pretty quickly. Speculation as to why abounds.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
[link to twitter.com (secure)]


Jack in VA
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Weather update: the drainage basin’s precipitation forecast has gone up again. We are now looking at 3 to 6 inches of rain and snow over the next 6 days. Big thunderstorms coming tomorrow in the PM. Friday mostly dry, but showers Sat/Sun/Mon. #OrovilleDam
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


D E A T H....IT ALL SPELLS ....DEATH.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
horn THEY'RE ALL WORKING...COME GET 'EM WHILE THEY'RE HOT!

Live Video Gallery

Lake Oroville SRA Dam Spillway

Lake Oroville SRA Spillway Top

AND MORE AT:

[link to www.parks.ca.gov]
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


..FUCKIN CHRIST!...
 Quoting: UH 43489005


coinciding with the low pressure system that was steered in
 Quoting: -Issued Forth-


Relax, sheriff says everything fine, piles of wet dirt are immune to earthquakes...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77647308



This is what happens with vibration on soil.


 Quoting: AdorableLittlepixie


I was wondering how long before we got the liquefaction conversation.

That wet spot is the weak point....if a large earthquake does happen, that spot breaks the dam.

Like I said, by the grace of God, this thing is still standing.
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


cruise WELL, LAST NIGHT THEY HIT (TWENTY) CFS AND THEN THEY HAD TO SHUT IT DOWN!

DO YOU HAVE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? pennywise
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
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Rep. Doug LaMalfa
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On Monday, Oroville Mayor Chuck Reynolds and I visited the Oroville Dam spillway with staff from @CA_DWR to receive an update following its first use in April. The newly reconstructed spillway is performing safely & in accordance with its design.
 Quoting: Amanda Lee


Oh that is rich and painful. Wow. I just can’t even....face palm.
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
OH, FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! waaaht

NOW THE DWR HAVE MOVED THE GOAL POST TO 908!

Oroville Dam fails at 908ft says California DWR


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


Lol. The built up the abutment. No way....that amount of water up against the gates and new abutment....this is worse than before.
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Good job, midwest.

I can't find it on a real fast search, but I posted a geological article a while ago here that the underlying rock in the watershed is what they call "flashy" rock, ie water runs off real fast because it isn't all that permeable like in other parts of the country and world with dams.

Not that it matters because you based your numbers on actual Oroville figures from the past, but I though the subject was interesting. It may explain why estimates of peaking 2 days after rain turn out to be more like 18 hours.

I am addicted to this thread. Two weeks to sobriety, LOL.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
889.28 AGAIN...4TH TIME NOW...STILL FUCKIN WIFF DA NUMBURZZZZ! AT 10 AM
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


DWR says it's rated to 270k CFS, but I don't think anyone actually believes that, that high a rate would blow up the feather river below.

They also say that it should never have to run above 160k CFS, even that, it'd likely blow apart a levee or 3 down below.

The have never actually run it above 25k CFS and when they did, they shut it down pretty quickly. Speculation as to why abounds.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77517484


Interesting to see how this all evolves then
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


cruise WELL, LAST NIGHT THEY HIT (TWENTY) CFS AND THEN THEY HAD TO SHUT IT DOWN!

DO YOU HAVE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? pennywise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


so they were using the spillway as recently as last night?
Midwest Skeptic

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Good job, midwest.

I can't find it on a real fast search, but I posted a geological article a while ago here that the underlying rock in the watershed is what they call "flashy" rock, ie water runs off real fast because it isn't all that permeable like in other parts of the country and world with dams.

Not that it matters because you based your numbers on actual Oroville figures from the past, but I though the subject was interesting. It may explain why estimates of peaking 2 days after rain turn out to be more like 18 hours.

I am addicted to this thread. Two weeks to sobriety, LOL.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


My water flow data (for staurated soils with the 14.5' 72 hour rain event) came direct from the ACE documents so I have to assume the ACE in their studies took into consideration the rocky nature of the soil in this watershed (they generate that kind of data regularly - so are pretty good at it imo)

You may want to start drinking Saturday Night ... based upon the timing of the Rain Event coming in AND the Remote Viewer's TIMING (yep they actually claimed to see day and time of failure).

I am REALLY upset that they are now holding off opening the spillway until the Lake hits 899. There is virtually NO LAKE RESERVE LEFT at that level.

The ACE documents indicated that they have to open the spillway in 2 hour increments, engineering issues they implied (without me reading the details in the ACE document), which means that if they don't START to open the gates until it hits 899, and the water flow into the lake is heavy, the lake can go above 900 BEFORE they can crank those gates up to the next level.

I didn't have time of course to read the entire 120 pages of the ACE document, with all it's graphs graphs and graphs closely enough to see how much each crank UP of the gates could be, but based upon what we have seen in the past with this dam I assume the first crank UP is to 10,000 cf/s, the second to the 20 to 25,000 cf/s and the third to 30 to 35,000 cf/s. Rain run off events can QUICKLY generate inflow surges WAY above those levels, it happened in 2017 where inflow levels jumped up VERY VERY quickly - which is the entire point of having reserve capacity in the Lake, which they will NOT have if they don't start until the 899 level.

Something is SERIOUSLY WRONG with the MS. They are taking Lake right to the razor wire of using the ES AGAIN, which boggles my mind since that is where the disaster almost occurred the last time.

Last Edited by Midwest Skeptic on 05/15/2019 01:33 PM
Midwest Skeptic
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
OH, FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! waaaht

NOW THE DWR HAVE MOVED THE GOAL POST TO 908!

Oroville Dam fails at 908ft says California DWR


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


Lol. The built up the abutment. No way....that amount of water up against the gates and new abutment....this is worse than before.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


stoned TRUTH REALLY IS STRANGER THAN FICTION, ISN'T IT? stoned
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


cruise WELL, LAST NIGHT THEY HIT (TWENTY) CFS AND THEN THEY HAD TO SHUT IT DOWN!

DO YOU HAVE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? pennywise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


so they were using the spillway as recently as last night?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


THEY LET THE EMPLOYEES PISS DOWN IT TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE THEY WERE USING IT...
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
what is the max cfs for the repaired spillway?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


cruise WELL, LAST NIGHT THEY HIT (TWENTY) CFS AND THEN THEY HAD TO SHUT IT DOWN!

DO YOU HAVE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? pennywise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


so they were using the spillway as recently as last night?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77646013


WELL, THEY CALLED IT A TEST! cruise

NOT SURPRISINGLY IT WAS A FAIL! pennywise
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Good job, midwest.

I can't find it on a real fast search, but I posted a geological article a while ago here that the underlying rock in the watershed is what they call "flashy" rock, ie water runs off real fast because it isn't all that permeable like in other parts of the country and world with dams.

Not that it matters because you based your numbers on actual Oroville figures from the past, but I though the subject was interesting. It may explain why estimates of peaking 2 days after rain turn out to be more like 18 hours.

I am addicted to this thread. Two weeks to sobriety, LOL.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


My water flow data (for staurated soils with the 14.5' 72 hour rain event) came direct from the ACE documents so I have to assume the ACE in their studies took into consideration the rocky nature of the soil in this watershed (they generate that kind of data regularly - so are pretty good at it imo)

You may want to start drinking Saturday Night ... based upon the timing of the Rain Event coming in AND the Remote Viewer's TIMING (yep they actually claimed to see day and time of failure).

I am REALLY upset that they are now holding off opening the spillway until the Lake hits 899. There is virtually NO LAKE RESERVE LEFT at that level.

The ACE documents indicated that they have to open the spillway in 2 hour increments, engineering issues they implied (without me reading the details in the ACE document), which means that if they don't START to open the gates until it hits 899, and the water flow into the lake is heavy, the lake can go above 900 BEFORE they can crank those gates up to the next level.

I didn't have time of course to read the entire 120 pages of the ACE document, with all it's graphs graphs and graphs closely enough to see how much each crank UP of the gates could be, but based upon what we have seen in the past with this dam I assume the first crank UP is to 10,000 cf/s, the second to the 20 to 25,000 cf/s and the third to 30 to 35,000 cf/s. Rain run off events can QUICKLY generate inflow surges WAY above those levels, it happened in 2017 where inflow levels jumped up VERY VERY quickly - which is the entire point of having reserve capacity in the Lake, which they will NOT have if they don't start until the 899 level.

Something is SERIOUSLY WRONG with the MS. They are taking Lake right to the razor wire of using the ES AGAIN, which boggles my mind since that is where the disaster almost occurred the last time.
 Quoting: Midwest Skeptic


MIDWEST,

WHAT DATE AND TIME DO THE VIEWERS EXPECT THIS FKN DAM TO COLLAPSE?

THANKS IN ADVANCE!