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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

 
Midwest Skeptic

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05/15/2019 08:16 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Hey science guys...

could this be the source of the vibrations? Not the water flowing down?

[link to www.catholic.org (secure)]

Today's modern Radial Gate designs have revealed a new and powerful force dynamic that was not well known years ago. Up to 60 ton Radial Gates have experienced a powerful "vibration" oscillation condition from critical flow levels in the gate openings. A standing wave of high and low pressure oscillation develops on the lower skin plates of the radial gate that transfers a complex set of distortions and movements to the massive steel gate structure. Indeed, experts are now attributing this powerful resonant oscillation vibration condition as a key component to the catastrophic failure of the Folsom Radial Tainter Gate in 1995 [11]. The power of this multi-mode form of oscillation in the massive trunnion gate structure would be dominant in forces applied to the Oroville Spillway Radial Gate design to these weakly coupled side seal assemblies.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Well worth a read wrt the Gates and Head Structure for the Spillway. The overall gist of the article is that there are a number of serious problems with the Gates and Head Structure of the Oroville Spillway, including some newly identified ones that were not provided for, or engineered for, when the structure and gates were built back in the mid 1960's.
Midwest Skeptic
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Those manlifts are nowhere near stout enough to make any kind of difference if one of those gates are to go. The buckets are there, I saw them when they lowered them on the spillway, they are just tucked up out of sight.
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05/15/2019 08:18 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
So what's the actual max level? 908 feet or 900 feet?

If it rains all night will be tmrw during the day or night we need to watch out?

Can we get a real eta on potential breech?
Anonymous Coward
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05/15/2019 08:20 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Root Causes Analyses of the Oroville Dam
Gated Spillway Failures and Other Developments

Robert G. Beaa
Emeritus Professor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Advisor, Center for Catastrophic Risk Management Oroville Dam Advisory Group
University of California Berkeley

Tony Johnsonb
Center for Catastrophic Risk Management Oroville Dam Advisory Group
University of California Berkeley

[link to drive.google.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
So what's the actual max level? 908 feet or 900 feet?

If it rains all night will be tmrw during the day or night we need to watch out?

Can we get a real eta on potential breech?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


The ES starts to overflow at 901, at 908 feet total dam failure begins. Should see max inflows from the rain in the next couple of days. They have already passed the point of no return, they will not be able to let water out fast enough.
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05/15/2019 08:22 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
So what's the actual max level? 908 feet or 900 feet?

If it rains all night will be tmrw during the day or night we need to watch out?

Can we get a real eta on potential breech?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


The ES starts to overflow at 901, at 908 feet total dam failure begins. Should see max inflows from the rain in the next couple of days. They have already passed the point of no return, they will not be able to let water out fast enough.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


My guess is that it will flow over the ES sometime this weekend.
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05/15/2019 08:23 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
When are they going to start releasing water out the MS?
Anonymous Coward
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05/15/2019 08:24 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

719 acre feet when you are talking 3,150,000 acre feet is like a few drops in bucket.

A wind shift in a lake that size will move the measuring gauge up or down more than that amount of water added into the lake.

The surface area of Oroville Lake at the level it is now is somewhat over 16,000 acres. Adding 719 acre feet of wter to that amount of surface area raises the lake by .0449 of a foot, or about 1/2 inch. (719/16,000 = .0449 .... 12" x .0449 = .54 of an inch)

Even on a small farm pond with NO WIND pushing water from one end of the pond to the other end I doubt you could accurately measure the lake level to 1/2 of an inch.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7


According to Accuweather, Oroville has a wind advisory of winds 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph, until 5pm Thursday.

One other thing to note, that lake can get so rough in the middle, which the main body of the lake in front of the dam, that it is like the ocean and can capsize boats easily.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
When are they going to start releasing water out the MS?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


They can't...

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Anonymous Coward
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05/15/2019 08:26 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
When are they going to start releasing water out the MS?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


They can't...

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


WHY NOT?
WGON
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Is the Orville Dam in the same area where the Camp Fire was?

You know, the "accidental" widespread wildfire area that matched up virtually identically to the proposed path of California's High Speed Rail Project?
WGON - "Your Eye In The Sky"

"In the cold room at the University, we had a leftist, a leftist from which all limbs had been amputated. Some time early this morning, it opened its eyes and began to move and to hurl socialist propaganda at Trump and his supporters. It was brain-dead, but it opened its eyes and tried to subvert!"

"That's my point! There's not going to be five, or even ten of them! There's going to be twenty, thirty, maybe a hundred of those things out there, and as soon as they find out we're here, this place'll be crawling with them!"
Thread: We Are Literally Witnessing The First Stages Of The Global Zombie Apocalypse

"And we're gone!"

WWG1WGA!
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Is the Orville Dam in the same area where the Camp Fire was?

You know, the "accidental" widespread wildfire area that matched up virtually identically to the proposed path of California's High Speed Rail Project?
 Quoting: WGON


Yes, Oroville was on watch for a potential evacuation too.
Midwest Skeptic

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05/15/2019 08:29 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

719 acre feet when you are talking 3,150,000 acre feet is like a few drops in bucket.

A wind shift in a lake that size will move the measuring gauge up or down more than that amount of water added into the lake.

The surface area of Oroville Lake at the level it is now is somewhat over 16,000 acres. Adding 719 acre feet of wter to that amount of surface area raises the lake by .0449 of a foot, or about 1/2 inch. (719/16,000 = .0449 .... 12" x .0449 = .54 of an inch)

Even on a small farm pond with NO WIND pushing water from one end of the pond to the other end I doubt you could accurately measure the lake level to 1/2 of an inch.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7

Yeah but if I understood the calculations, this is per hour. So at 1/2" per hour, that is a rise of over a foot a day. And this is with normal conditions. Now factor in the coming rainfall and the increased snow melt that will accompany...it's not an insignificant number.
 Quoting: Midwest Skeptic


Nevermind....I stand corrected. This was a calculated number over a period greater than one hour...But I also noticed that this calculation is of water that is "missing" from apparent leaks. The concern being that this is a lot of water just leaking out of the lake.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77504101


If you go back to the original post that was over 10 hours ... which puts the DAILY increase (not counting leakage) at about 1 and 1/3 inches A DAY.

Everything wrt filling the Lake, assuming they do NOT open the Main Spillway, is going to depend upon the RAIN EVENT that is hitting the watershed , NOT these minor amounts flowing into the Lake. I am having a hard time getting actual projected rainfall amounts for the watershed area , but it appears that they are now looking at 3 1/3 inches through Sunday, as a minimum, in the watershed area.

As with any rainfall situation in a mountainous area the higher elevations on the UPWIND side of the mountains - which the Oroville watershed is for this storm - traditionally get more rain than the lower elevations on the UPWIND side of the mountains - ie: down in the valley (the moisture gets squeezed out as the air mass is forced higher, lowering it's temperature - thus the air has less moisture carrying capacity).

Rain however, even for a larger system such as the one impacting that area, can be spotty with some areas getting considerably less than expected and projected while other areas more. Hopefully the exact watershed area of Oroville will be in the LESSER RAIN portion of the weather front and the overall total amount will be closer to 2" than to 5".

Last Edited by Midwest Skeptic on 05/15/2019 08:32 PM
Midwest Skeptic
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Heavy rains closing in.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
When are they going to start releasing water out the MS?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


They can't...

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 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


WHY NOT?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Manlifts at the gates for several days now, porta potty on the spillway, massive storm bearing down lake almost full, and they are still not releasing. It's pretty evident to most that there is a serious issue with the gates...
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
When are they going to start releasing water out the MS?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


They can't...

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


WHY NOT?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Manlifts at the gates for several days now, porta potty on the spillway, massive storm bearing down lake almost full, and they are still not releasing. It's pretty evident to most that there is a serious issue with the gates...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


So once the gates are fixed everything back to normal?
Midwest Skeptic

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05/15/2019 08:39 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
So what's the actual max level? 908 feet or 900 feet?

If it rains all night will be tmrw during the day or night we need to watch out?

Can we get a real eta on potential breech?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


The lip of the Emergency Spillway is 900.5 feet as I recall. For the lake to actually reach 908 feet, about 7 feet above the lip of that spillway, the inflow to the lake would have to be somewhere north of 250,000 cf/s is my guess, probably closer to 400,000 - 600,000 cf/s, and that is NOT going to happen with this storm. (you would be talking about a 15" of rain in 72 hours event)

The spill rate over the Emergency Spillway is astronomically HIGH if the water gets DEEP. Without referring back to the Army Corp's documents I don't remember exactly, but my dim recollection is that it was north of 400,000 cf/s.
Midwest Skeptic
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


They can't...

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 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


WHY NOT?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Manlifts at the gates for several days now, porta potty on the spillway, massive storm bearing down lake almost full, and they are still not releasing. It's pretty evident to most that there is a serious issue with the gates...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


So once the gates are fixed everything back to normal?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Do you really think that they can get the gates fixed after 50 years of neglect, especially with all that pressure behind them before the inflows jump from the storms? Then, there are the issues with the main spillway and the cavitation damage.
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05/15/2019 08:43 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
So what's the actual max level? 908 feet or 900 feet?

If it rains all night will be tmrw during the day or night we need to watch out?

Can we get a real eta on potential breech?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


The lip of the Emergency Spillway is 900.5 feet as I recall. For the lake to actually reach 908 feet, about 7 feet above the lip of that spillway, the inflow to the lake would have to be somewhere north of 250,000 cf/s is my guess, probably closer to 400,000 - 600,000 cf/s, and that is NOT going to happen with this storm. (you would be talking about a 15" of rain in 72 hours event)

The spill rate over the Emergency Spillway is astronomically HIGH if the water gets DEEP. Without referring back to the Army Corp's documents I don't remember exactly, but my dim recollection is that it was north of 400,000 cf/s.
 Quoting: Midwest Skeptic


Not to mention the ES began to fail two years ago at only 3% of its advertised spill capacity.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Following for this week of rain ahead..
The Soul Ambassador - I wanna know about life, instead i know about nothing.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


WHY NOT?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Manlifts at the gates for several days now, porta potty on the spillway, massive storm bearing down lake almost full, and they are still not releasing. It's pretty evident to most that there is a serious issue with the gates...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


So once the gates are fixed everything back to normal?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Do you really think that they can get the gates fixed after 50 years of neglect, especially with all that pressure behind them before the inflows jump from the storms? Then, there are the issues with the main spillway and the cavitation damage.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


You mean the gates won't open right now? Can't they blow up a couple of the gates to keep whole dam from going down?
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Or are the gates actually operational and they want it to go?
CleverCreator

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05/15/2019 08:46 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
When are they going to start releasing water out the MS?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


They can't...

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


WHY NOT?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


That is the million dollar question
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
CleverCreator

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05/15/2019 08:47 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Or are the gates actually operational and they want it to go?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


No. The gates have been leaking for years. We just never knew.

Now we also know about serious ELF issues too.
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


Manlifts at the gates for several days now, porta potty on the spillway, massive storm bearing down lake almost full, and they are still not releasing. It's pretty evident to most that there is a serious issue with the gates...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


So once the gates are fixed everything back to normal?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Do you really think that they can get the gates fixed after 50 years of neglect, especially with all that pressure behind them before the inflows jump from the storms? Then, there are the issues with the main spillway and the cavitation damage.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


You mean the gates won't open right now? Can't they blow up a couple of the gates to keep whole dam from going down?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


That would flood Sacramento.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Or are the gates actually operational and they want it to go?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


No. The gates have been leaking for years. We just never knew.

Now we also know about serious ELF issues too.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


Who cares if it leaks when we need it to flow.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


Are they using those as jacks of some sort to put pressure on a failing or cracking section?

They don't appear to have buckets attached to lift anyone.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75611699


Trying to open them.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


Seriously?

Dear lord.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75611699


Honestly I don’t take anything about this dam seriously because Only a Miracle is holding it together.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


And bubblegum!

;)
Midwest Skeptic

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05/15/2019 08:52 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Or are the gates actually operational and they want it to go?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


No. The gates have been leaking for years. We just never knew.

Now we also know about serious ELF issues too.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


Who cares if it leaks when we need it to flow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


AH ... but in it's infinite wisdom DWR now says they won't open the Main Spillway Gates UNTIL the lake hits 899'!!


When the lake is hitting 899' EVERYBODY in Oroville should be on the road getting to higher ground (imo)!!
Midwest Skeptic
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
There's a silver lining in every cloud and I suppose if the dam fails the california state legislature would go and silicon valley too.

Always gotta look on the bright side.
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


So once the gates are fixed everything back to normal?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


Do you really think that they can get the gates fixed after 50 years of neglect, especially with all that pressure behind them before the inflows jump from the storms? Then, there are the issues with the main spillway and the cavitation damage.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77563121


You mean the gates won't open right now? Can't they blow up a couple of the gates to keep whole dam from going down?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77649299


That would flood Sacramento.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77410359

pope