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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

 
Hnry Bwmn

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06/23/2019 05:14 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
I wonder what action, if any, would/could have been taken to reverse the temporary blowout of the bottom seal?

Could it be that it simply blew and that the gate then quickly settled and resealed itself...i.e. metal into mud/dirt?

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77752625


^Seems to be the consensus atm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70885715


Consensus ... AS REPORTED IN THE NEWS? What's happening here??

Asking for a couple hundred thousand friends.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77187068


If I recall correctly, the bottom of the gates is steel on steel, with weight of gate and water doing the sealing. Sides and top use hydraulically inflated seals.
Retired Union Millwright.
Tired of working with imbeciles and idiots!
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Here's the incident: [link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Witnesses at Susan's channel report one worker rushing off the spillway that did not get captured and posted by anyone yet on film. One worker on staircase is seen^ on video linked getting off staircase outside spillway walls.

Susan is having doubts about declaring personal emergency alert.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70885715


Comment 1 hour ago
"Remind the workers that they need to look like things are calm and normal during these emergencies"
Hnry Bwmn

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06/23/2019 05:17 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
And I think opening was done with electric winches to cables to gates.
Retired Union Millwright.
Tired of working with imbeciles and idiots!
Prayandprepare000

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06/23/2019 05:22 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
About evacuation.....

There was a post here a couple weeks ago maybe, expressing concern about Susan Wolding and her cry to evacuate now being somewhat of a chicken little sort of problem, and if the dam holds up and nothing happens, in the long run it does more harm than good and makes her and by implication all the dam doomers lose credibility.

I meant to quote it and reply....not sure who posted it and don't remember what page.

I agree. By that I don't mean anybody is wrong to evacuate now, and I would want to get out permanently, but here is the problem:

If people are going to appeal to Scott and Lisa Cahill and their decades of dam remediation work, and their concerns about water porting under the hill and so forth, and make them an authority that the dam has problems and DWR is lying, then you can't turn around and dismiss what they have to say about non evacuation right now.

Back when the soil erosion started I wrote to Lisa Cahill and I posted it here, and Lisa has been active on Twitter. I specifically asked if signs of internal erosion meant people needed to evacuate now and she said no. A lot of people have called and emailed them and they are clear that dams can stay like this for years. (or days or hours). They have openly said that the dam may hold up this year and hopefully DWR will start intensive grouting and gate remediation this summer and maybe it will work.

Now personally a maybe isn't good enough for me. I would sell my house at a loss and get out and do anything to not be in the flood zone. But the dam could get gradually dismantled and not harm anybody, or there could be a 20 year drought ahead.

Dr. Robert Bea said the left abutment never sealed and that green spot is so worrisome that the dam could start breaching on a sunny summer day. Cahill described phreatic water levels and why the seepage should not be as high as that green spot. So its all very concerning. But, the dam could hold for another decade. We just don't know. DWR won't install the proper piezometers so even DWR doesn't know what is really going on.

The bottom line is that Susan Wolding is NOT somebody with 50 years of dam construction and remediation, and she has no business setting herself up as an authoritative voice that the dam is about to fail this year. When Cahills say it may hold up just fine, they should be respected.

With what looks like increasing earthquake activity, and a fault line in the lake itself, it is possible that people like Bea and Cahill could issue a public warning that evacuation should happen now, and if we began to see high levels of internal erosion I can picture Cahills issuing a warning to get out if you are below. But that isn't happening now.

I find Susan Wolding to be disrespectful of dam experts who are far more knowledgeable than she will ever be, saying the dam may hold up fine. She has no business insisting that it is 100% about to fail. Frankly I find her annoying, and while I as a cautious prepper would get out, it is just not right to be talking the way she talks.
Crunch62

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06/23/2019 05:23 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
And I think opening was done with electric winches to cables to gates.
 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn


Who would do such a thing with people and equipment on the spillway?
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 05:25 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
And I think opening was done with electric winches to cables to gates.
 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn


Who would do such a thing with people and equipment on the spillway?
 Quoting: Crunch62


Null set
Crunch62

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06/23/2019 05:29 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
And I think opening was done with electric winches to cables to gates.
 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn


Who would do such a thing with people and equipment on the spillway?
 Quoting: Crunch62


Null set
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77187068


If that happened to me, I'd find that guy for some wall-to-wall counseling.
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 05:49 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
About evacuation.....

There was a post here a couple weeks ago maybe, expressing concern about Susan Wolding and her cry to evacuate now being somewhat of a chicken little sort of problem, and if the dam holds up and nothing happens, in the long run it does more harm than good and makes her and by implication all the dam doomers lose credibility.

I meant to quote it and reply....not sure who posted it and don't remember what page.

I agree. By that I don't mean anybody is wrong to evacuate now, and I would want to get out permanently, but here is the problem:

If people are going to appeal to Scott and Lisa Cahill and their decades of dam remediation work, and their concerns about water porting under the hill and so forth, and make them an authority that the dam has problems and DWR is lying, then you can't turn around and dismiss what they have to say about non evacuation right now.

Back when the soil erosion started I wrote to Lisa Cahill and I posted it here, and Lisa has been active on Twitter. I specifically asked if signs of internal erosion meant people needed to evacuate now and she said no. A lot of people have called and emailed them and they are clear that dams can stay like this for years. (or days or hours). They have openly said that the dam may hold up this year and hopefully DWR will start intensive grouting and gate remediation this summer and maybe it will work.

Now personally a maybe isn't good enough for me. I would sell my house at a loss and get out and do anything to not be in the flood zone. But the dam could get gradually dismantled and not harm anybody, or there could be a 20 year drought ahead.

Dr. Robert Bea said the left abutment never sealed and that green spot is so worrisome that the dam could start breaching on a sunny summer day. Cahill described phreatic water levels and why the seepage should not be as high as that green spot. So its all very concerning. But, the dam could hold for another decade. We just don't know. DWR won't install the proper piezometers so even DWR doesn't know what is really going on.

The bottom line is that Susan Wolding is NOT somebody with 50 years of dam construction and remediation, and she has no business setting herself up as an authoritative voice that the dam is about to fail this year. When Cahills say it may hold up just fine, they should be respected.

With what looks like increasing earthquake activity, and a fault line in the lake itself, it is possible that people like Bea and Cahill could issue a public warning that evacuation should happen now, and if we began to see high levels of internal erosion I can picture Cahills issuing a warning to get out if you are below. But that isn't happening now.

I find Susan Wolding to be disrespectful of dam experts who are far more knowledgeable than she will ever be, saying the dam may hold up fine. She has no business insisting that it is 100% about to fail. Frankly I find her annoying, and while I as a cautious prepper would get out, it is just not right to be talking the way she talks.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Well Said! I agree with you 100 percent!

clappa
Hnry Bwmn

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06/23/2019 05:54 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
And I think opening was done with electric winches to cables to gates.
 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn


Who would do such a thing with people and equipment on the spillway?
 Quoting: Crunch62


I was merely stating how they are opened, not saying it was done when the rush of water occurred!
Retired Union Millwright.
Tired of working with imbeciles and idiots!
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 05:55 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
And I think opening was done with electric winches to cables to gates.
 Quoting: Hnry Bwmn


Who would do such a thing with people and equipment on the spillway?
 Quoting: Crunch62


Null set
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77187068


If that happened to me, I'd find that guy for some wall-to-wall counseling.
 Quoting: Crunch62


LOL...

(They don't call him "Crunch" for nothing...)
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 05:57 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Red Flag Warning for Central Sacramento Valley including Glenn/Colusa/Yuba/Northern Sutter/Butte County Below 1000 Ft, California

[link to weather.com (secure)]

here we go again.
 Quoting: sseess


Since its not gonna tip over from rain, Orotards are worried about the wind blowing it over...

OMG your ignorance is appalling...

What about the gold mining theory? Did they get all the gold already?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75316833


Did you know strong winds can push water up?

Of course you didn't know that. Because you, unlike others here, make shit up.

No one said this dam would tip over from wind. Since you're struggling to understand, I'll help you out, slowly so I don't confuse you.


Wind helps melt snow faster.

Wind will make a lake rise on one side and recede on the other.

LMAO, you mention of ignorance. Look in the mirror.
 Quoting: Nonentity

nevertheless, your mindless gibberish notwithstanding, the DAM IS STILL FINE...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


No it's not
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 06:04 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


Since its not gonna tip over from rain, Orotards are worried about the wind blowing it over...

OMG your ignorance is appalling...

What about the gold mining theory? Did they get all the gold already?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75316833


Did you know strong winds can push water up?

Of course you didn't know that. Because you, unlike others here, make shit up.

No one said this dam would tip over from wind. Since you're struggling to understand, I'll help you out, slowly so I don't confuse you.


Wind helps melt snow faster.

Wind will make a lake rise on one side and recede on the other.

LMAO, you mention of ignorance. Look in the mirror.
 Quoting: Nonentity

nevertheless, your mindless gibberish notwithstanding, the DAM IS STILL FINE...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


No it's not
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77013656


Did you know the head gates have expired?

All hydromechanical systems must be replaced between 30 to 50 years. That is not debatable, that is FACT!

The dam is 51 years old. This means the gates are not fine and DWR is risking a catastrophe by neglecting essential maintenance.

I just proved you are wrong, the dam is not fine. Now take this newly acquired information and stick it where the sun don't shine because that is where your brain is.
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 06:06 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
About evacuation.....

There was a post here a couple weeks ago maybe, expressing concern about Susan Wolding and her cry to evacuate now being somewhat of a chicken little sort of problem, and if the dam holds up and nothing happens, in the long run it does more harm than good and makes her and by implication all the dam doomers lose credibility.

I meant to quote it and reply....not sure who posted it and don't remember what page.

I agree. By that I don't mean anybody is wrong to evacuate now, and I would want to get out permanently, but here is the problem:

If people are going to appeal to Scott and Lisa Cahill and their decades of dam remediation work, and their concerns about water porting under the hill and so forth, and make them an authority that the dam has problems and DWR is lying, then you can't turn around and dismiss what they have to say about non evacuation right now.

Back when the soil erosion started I wrote to Lisa Cahill and I posted it here, and Lisa has been active on Twitter. I specifically asked if signs of internal erosion meant people needed to evacuate now and she said no. A lot of people have called and emailed them and they are clear that dams can stay like this for years. (or days or hours). They have openly said that the dam may hold up this year and hopefully DWR will start intensive grouting and gate remediation this summer and maybe it will work.

Now personally a maybe isn't good enough for me. I would sell my house at a loss and get out and do anything to not be in the flood zone. But the dam could get gradually dismantled and not harm anybody, or there could be a 20 year drought ahead.

Dr. Robert Bea said the left abutment never sealed and that green spot is so worrisome that the dam could start breaching on a sunny summer day. Cahill described phreatic water levels and why the seepage should not be as high as that green spot. So its all very concerning. But, the dam could hold for another decade. We just don't know. DWR won't install the proper piezometers so even DWR doesn't know what is really going on.

The bottom line is that Susan Wolding is NOT somebody with 50 years of dam construction and remediation, and she has no business setting herself up as an authoritative voice that the dam is about to fail this year. When Cahills say it may hold up just fine, they should be respected.

With what looks like increasing earthquake activity, and a fault line in the lake itself, it is possible that people like Bea and Cahill could issue a public warning that evacuation should happen now, and if we began to see high levels of internal erosion I can picture Cahills issuing a warning to get out if you are below. But that isn't happening now.

I find Susan Wolding to be disrespectful of dam experts who are far more knowledgeable than she will ever be, saying the dam may hold up fine. She has no business insisting that it is 100% about to fail. Frankly I find her annoying, and while I as a cautious prepper would get out, it is just not right to be talking the way she talks.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Well Said! I agree with you 100 percent!

clappa
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


I almost totally agree but I'm a self acknowledged uneducated speculator so who but me really cares what I think anyhoo?

An official evac order will in reality mean gridlock.

Imagine watching live stream of up to a million people stranded bumper to bumper, children, wives, etc. screaming. Imagine that for a second.

No one mistakes Susan Wolding for an official nor a dam specialist. She's just a woman with a heart trying to forewarn people. That's how she's perceived.

If that Dam blows and up to a million people do die at least Susan tried.
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 06:07 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Red Flag Warning for Central Sacramento Valley including Glenn/Colusa/Yuba/Northern Sutter/Butte County Below 1000 Ft, California

[link to weather.com (secure)]

here we go again.
 Quoting: sseess


Since its not gonna tip over from rain, Orotards are worried about the wind blowing it over...

OMG your ignorance is appalling...

What about the gold mining theory? Did they get all the gold already?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75316833


Did you know strong winds can push water up?

Of course you didn't know that. Because you, unlike others here, make shit up.

No one said this dam would tip over from wind. Since you're struggling to understand, I'll help you out, slowly so I don't confuse you.


Wind helps melt snow faster.

Wind will make a lake rise on one side and recede on the other.

LMAO, you mention of ignorance. Look in the mirror.
 Quoting: Nonentity

nevertheless, your mindless gibberish notwithstanding, the DAM IS STILL FINE...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


Posting 1 more time so you understand.

The gates, being a hydromechanical system, need reworked after so many years. The ranges are 30 to 50 years for hydromechanical systems in dams.


Oroville is 51 years old. They are 1 year overdue and that does not define a dam that is "fine".


If you're smart, you'll realize you are wrong. But I have a hunch you will deny these facts in favor of blindly holding your emotionally embraced opinion.


Good day
Crunch62

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06/23/2019 07:35 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Another earthquake near Petrolia on the coast. About 45 minutes ago. 3.9

That make 3 since yesterday. 3.1, 5.6 and 3.9

Last Edited by Crunch62 on 06/23/2019 07:35 PM
What the Hell?...
Prayandprepare000

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06/23/2019 08:22 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
About evacuation.....

There was a post here a couple weeks ago maybe, expressing concern about Susan Wolding and her cry to evacuate now being somewhat of a chicken little sort of problem, and if the dam holds up and nothing happens, in the long run it does more harm than good and makes her and by implication all the dam doomers lose credibility.

I meant to quote it and reply....not sure who posted it and don't remember what page.

I agree. By that I don't mean anybody is wrong to evacuate now, and I would want to get out permanently, but here is the problem:

If people are going to appeal to Scott and Lisa Cahill and their decades of dam remediation work, and their concerns about water porting under the hill and so forth, and make them an authority that the dam has problems and DWR is lying, then you can't turn around and dismiss what they have to say about non evacuation right now.

Back when the soil erosion started I wrote to Lisa Cahill and I posted it here, and Lisa has been active on Twitter. I specifically asked if signs of internal erosion meant people needed to evacuate now and she said no. A lot of people have called and emailed them and they are clear that dams can stay like this for years. (or days or hours). They have openly said that the dam may hold up this year and hopefully DWR will start intensive grouting and gate remediation this summer and maybe it will work.

Now personally a maybe isn't good enough for me. I would sell my house at a loss and get out and do anything to not be in the flood zone. But the dam could get gradually dismantled and not harm anybody, or there could be a 20 year drought ahead.

Dr. Robert Bea said the left abutment never sealed and that green spot is so worrisome that the dam could start breaching on a sunny summer day. Cahill described phreatic water levels and why the seepage should not be as high as that green spot. So its all very concerning. But, the dam could hold for another decade. We just don't know. DWR won't install the proper piezometers so even DWR doesn't know what is really going on.

The bottom line is that Susan Wolding is NOT somebody with 50 years of dam construction and remediation, and she has no business setting herself up as an authoritative voice that the dam is about to fail this year. When Cahills say it may hold up just fine, they should be respected.

With what looks like increasing earthquake activity, and a fault line in the lake itself, it is possible that people like Bea and Cahill could issue a public warning that evacuation should happen now, and if we began to see high levels of internal erosion I can picture Cahills issuing a warning to get out if you are below. But that isn't happening now.

I find Susan Wolding to be disrespectful of dam experts who are far more knowledgeable than she will ever be, saying the dam may hold up fine. She has no business insisting that it is 100% about to fail. Frankly I find her annoying, and while I as a cautious prepper would get out, it is just not right to be talking the way she talks.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Well Said! I agree with you 100 percent!

clappa
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


I almost totally agree but I'm a self acknowledged uneducated speculator so who but me really cares what I think anyhoo?

An official evac order will in reality mean gridlock.

Imagine watching live stream of up to a million people stranded bumper to bumper, children, wives, etc. screaming. Imagine that for a second.

No one mistakes Susan Wolding for an official nor a dam specialist. She's just a woman with a heart trying to forewarn people. That's how she's perceived.

If that Dam blows and up to a million people do die at least Susan tried.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70885715


Don't get me wrong. I find this dam terrifying, mainly the gates. This link to the Tony Johnson section of the 124 page Bea report has been posted countless times here.

[link to www.catholic.org (secure)]

But, you can't appeal to Cahill as the great expert talking about porting water in the hill and so forth, and then turn around and say he should be ignored when Lisa says that there is no reason for an immediate evacuation.

I know they are working on another video, and since the last one they did, we saw that internal erosion (mud). It is entirely possible they will say the situation has gotten more dire. Or perhaps they will say DWR has been grouting and the mud has not increased.( it doesn't look as bad now). I just don't know. I think Susan and crew should urge people towards relocation without the "get out now the dam is going to break any second"sort of exhortations. But what do I know.

Scott Cahill already said that the new Emergency Spillway apron hillside will not hold and will cut back to the lake (as in 2017) despite the secant cut off wall they put in. That's as negative as you can get. Maybe if we had gotten up to 898 or 899 and DWR said they wanted to try out the new ES, he would have said it is time to evacuate. I trust them...that's my bottom line. I don't trust the people at Wolding's chat to be anywhere as rational and knowledgeable.

Yeah, a sudden evacuation would be gridlock. Getting out a couple days before it hit 900 would have been very wise.

Going back to the gates, and the link above.....

You know all the talk about vibrations on the new spillway? Marty DeAngelo's buddy at MIT who got into the DWR dam sensors in the new spillway and they showed vibration? Jack in VA with the twitter pics of the diamond pattern in the water flowing down?

This is from that link, and I wonder if the gates were the source of the vibration and that is why the spillway was vibrating:

Today's modern Radial Gate designs have revealed a new and powerful force dynamic that was not well known years ago. Up to 60 ton Radial Gates have experienced a powerful "vibration" oscillation condition from critical flow levels in the gate openings. A standing wave of high and low pressure oscillation develops on the lower skin plates of the radial gate that transfers a complex set of distortions and movements to the massive steel gate structure. Indeed, experts are now attributing this powerful resonant oscillation vibration condition as a key component to the catastrophic failure of the Folsom Radial Tainter Gate in 1995 [11]. The power of this multi-mode form of oscillation in the massive trunnion gate structure would be dominant in forces applied to the Oroville Spillway Radial Gate design to these weakly coupled side seal assemblies. The wave action of the resonance would easily focus high forces on the side seal assembly individual aligning J-Bolts (now upgraded to eyebolts). This could cause either a shift in the alignment from "slip" or from "rotation" in the bolt compression area of the eyebolts. The result could be a swift and dangerous form of a strong binding condition to the gate in a virtual "freeze" state.

I wonder if the oscillation started and they panicked (with good reason) that they could have a Folsom gate #2 event and shut off the flow. Maybe the vibration was from this and not originating from the new spillway itself. Any thoughts from you engineering guys?

Anyway, I need to get some stuff done and get away from this dam LOL. Prayers for all.
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 08:40 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
The gates are lifted using electric motor gear reduction and cables to the gates. The seals are brass plates with bladders under water pressure forcing a seal. The seals are in bad shape because of lack of maintenance for many years. Some ad-hock repair was attempted that was less than satisfactory.

Stop dissing Susan who retarded moran.
ruser

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06/23/2019 09:31 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Anybody Out here downstream? I would not put it past them to breach this Dam - (FFlag) - please be careful! Otherwise, in my opinion - "she's holding on with all she's got - Jim"
ruser
Crunch62

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06/23/2019 09:48 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Anybody Out here downstream? I would not put it past them to breach this Dam - (FFlag) - please be careful! Otherwise, in my opinion - "she's holding on with all she's got - Jim"
 Quoting: ruser


I am about 15 miles downstream at the very eastern edge of the inundation zone. Ether just inside it or just outside depending which map you look at.
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 09:49 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
About evacuation.....

There was a post here a couple weeks ago maybe, expressing concern about Susan Wolding and her cry to evacuate now being somewhat of a chicken little sort of problem, and if the dam holds up and nothing happens, in the long run it does more harm than good and makes her and by implication all the dam doomers lose credibility.

I meant to quote it and reply....not sure who posted it and don't remember what page.

I agree. By that I don't mean anybody is wrong to evacuate now, and I would want to get out permanently, but here is the problem:

If people are going to appeal to Scott and Lisa Cahill and their decades of dam remediation work, and their concerns about water porting under the hill and so forth, and make them an authority that the dam has problems and DWR is lying, then you can't turn around and dismiss what they have to say about non evacuation right now.

Back when the soil erosion started I wrote to Lisa Cahill and I posted it here, and Lisa has been active on Twitter. I specifically asked if signs of internal erosion meant people needed to evacuate now and she said no. A lot of people have called and emailed them and they are clear that dams can stay like this for years. (or days or hours). They have openly said that the dam may hold up this year and hopefully DWR will start intensive grouting and gate remediation this summer and maybe it will work.

Now personally a maybe isn't good enough for me. I would sell my house at a loss and get out and do anything to not be in the flood zone. But the dam could get gradually dismantled and not harm anybody, or there could be a 20 year drought ahead.

Dr. Robert Bea said the left abutment never sealed and that green spot is so worrisome that the dam could start breaching on a sunny summer day. Cahill described phreatic water levels and why the seepage should not be as high as that green spot. So its all very concerning. But, the dam could hold for another decade. We just don't know. DWR won't install the proper piezometers so even DWR doesn't know what is really going on.

The bottom line is that Susan Wolding is NOT somebody with 50 years of dam construction and remediation, and she has no business setting herself up as an authoritative voice that the dam is about to fail this year. When Cahills say it may hold up just fine, they should be respected.

With what looks like increasing earthquake activity, and a fault line in the lake itself, it is possible that people like Bea and Cahill could issue a public warning that evacuation should happen now, and if we began to see high levels of internal erosion I can picture Cahills issuing a warning to get out if you are below. But that isn't happening now.

I find Susan Wolding to be disrespectful of dam experts who are far more knowledgeable than she will ever be, saying the dam may hold up fine. She has no business insisting that it is 100% about to fail. Frankly I find her annoying, and while I as a cautious prepper would get out, it is just not right to be talking the way she talks.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


aND LET THE BACKTRACKING BEGIN.....
WE DIDNT ERALLY MEAN "EVACUATE NOW" WE MEANT maybe WE might HAFTA EVACUATE.

"JUST ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTUIION"

wE NEED THE YOUTUBE VIEWS TO SUPPL;EMENT OUR ssI DISABILITY CHECKS...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76564156
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06/23/2019 09:51 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
...


Since its not gonna tip over from rain, Orotards are worried about the wind blowing it over...

OMG your ignorance is appalling...

What about the gold mining theory? Did they get all the gold already?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75316833


Did you know strong winds can push water up?

Of course you didn't know that. Because you, unlike others here, make shit up.

No one said this dam would tip over from wind. Since you're struggling to understand, I'll help you out, slowly so I don't confuse you.


Wind helps melt snow faster.

Wind will make a lake rise on one side and recede on the other.

LMAO, you mention of ignorance. Look in the mirror.
 Quoting: Nonentity

nevertheless, your mindless gibberish notwithstanding, the DAM IS STILL FINE...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


Posting 1 more time so you understand.

The gates, being a hydromechanical system, need reworked after so many years. The ranges are 30 to 50 years for hydromechanical systems in dams.


Oroville is 51 years old. They are 1 year overdue and that does not define a dam that is "fine".


If you're smart, you'll realize you are wrong. But I have a hunch you will deny these facts in favor of blindly holding your emotionally embraced opinion.


Good day
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77013656


loL, DIDNT YOU GET THE MEMO? yOU NEED TO BACKTRACK AND EQUIVACATE NOW...
The dam dam is fine.... just LOOK at it...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73049824
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06/23/2019 10:00 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
loL, DIDNT YOU GET THE MEMO? yOU NEED TO BACKTRACK AND EQUIVACATE NOW...
The dam dam is fine.... just LOOK at it...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


You know, you can take five seconds to make sure your caps lock is doing what you think it is.

It's a slow forum, you don't have to run every post off in three seconds flat. There's no reason to desperately flail at your keyboard like this.
sseess

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06/23/2019 10:09 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
loL, DIDNT YOU GET THE MEMO? yOU NEED TO BACKTRACK AND EQUIVACATE NOW...
The dam dam is fine.... just LOOK at it...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


You know, you can take five seconds to make sure your caps lock is doing what you think it is.

It's a slow forum, you don't have to run every post off in three seconds flat. There's no reason to desperately flail at your keyboard like this.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73049824


bump
No weapon formed against me shall prosper.
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 10:10 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Another earthquake near Petrolia on the coast. About 45 minutes ago. 3.9

That make 3 since yesterday. 3.1, 5.6 and 3.9
 Quoting: Crunch62


Where the hell is Petrolia? Never heard of it. Weird name. Saw you said it's on the coast. Is it near San Francisco?
Crunch62

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06/23/2019 10:19 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Another earthquake near Petrolia on the coast. About 45 minutes ago. 3.9

That make 3 since yesterday. 3.1, 5.6 and 3.9
 Quoting: Crunch62


Where the hell is Petrolia? Never heard of it. Weird name. Saw you said it's on the coast. Is it near San Francisco?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77670136


It is farther north on the coast near Eureka. The quakes were centered on the southeast corner of the Juan Defuca plate where it meets the San Andreas fault.
What the Hell?...
AdorableLittlepixie

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06/23/2019 10:54 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Another earthquake near Petrolia on the coast. About 45 minutes ago. 3.9

That make 3 since yesterday. 3.1, 5.6 and 3.9
 Quoting: Crunch62


Where the hell is Petrolia? Never heard of it. Weird name. Saw you said it's on the coast. Is it near San Francisco?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77670136


It is farther north on the coast near Eureka. The quakes were centered on the southeast corner of the Juan Defuca plate where it meets the San Andreas fault.
 Quoting: Crunch62


For interest here is a youtube clip re the above quakes:


AdorableLittlepixie

Success is the result of good judgement.
Good judgment is the result of experience.
Experience is often the result of bad judgement.
Anonymous Coward
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06/23/2019 11:18 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
About evacuation.....

There was a post here a couple weeks ago maybe, expressing concern about Susan Wolding and her cry to evacuate now being somewhat of a chicken little sort of problem, and if the dam holds up and nothing happens, in the long run it does more harm than good and makes her and by implication all the dam doomers lose credibility.

I meant to quote it and reply....not sure who posted it and don't remember what page.

I agree. By that I don't mean anybody is wrong to evacuate now, and I would want to get out permanently, but here is the problem:

If people are going to appeal to Scott and Lisa Cahill and their decades of dam remediation work, and their concerns about water porting under the hill and so forth, and make them an authority that the dam has problems and DWR is lying, then you can't turn around and dismiss what they have to say about non evacuation right now.

Back when the soil erosion started I wrote to Lisa Cahill and I posted it here, and Lisa has been active on Twitter. I specifically asked if signs of internal erosion meant people needed to evacuate now and she said no. A lot of people have called and emailed them and they are clear that dams can stay like this for years. (or days or hours). They have openly said that the dam may hold up this year and hopefully DWR will start intensive grouting and gate remediation this summer and maybe it will work.

Now personally a maybe isn't good enough for me. I would sell my house at a loss and get out and do anything to not be in the flood zone. But the dam could get gradually dismantled and not harm anybody, or there could be a 20 year drought ahead.

Dr. Robert Bea said the left abutment never sealed and that green spot is so worrisome that the dam could start breaching on a sunny summer day. Cahill described phreatic water levels and why the seepage should not be as high as that green spot. So its all very concerning. But, the dam could hold for another decade. We just don't know. DWR won't install the proper piezometers so even DWR doesn't know what is really going on.

The bottom line is that Susan Wolding is NOT somebody with 50 years of dam construction and remediation, and she has no business setting herself up as an authoritative voice that the dam is about to fail this year. When Cahills say it may hold up just fine, they should be respected.

With what looks like increasing earthquake activity, and a fault line in the lake itself, it is possible that people like Bea and Cahill could issue a public warning that evacuation should happen now, and if we began to see high levels of internal erosion I can picture Cahills issuing a warning to get out if you are below. But that isn't happening now.

I find Susan Wolding to be disrespectful of dam experts who are far more knowledgeable than she will ever be, saying the dam may hold up fine. She has no business insisting that it is 100% about to fail. Frankly I find her annoying, and while I as a cautious prepper would get out, it is just not right to be talking the way she talks.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Well Said! I agree with you 100 percent!

clappa
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554


I almost totally agree but I'm a self acknowledged uneducated speculator so who but me really cares what I think anyhoo?

An official evac order will in reality mean gridlock.

Imagine watching live stream of up to a million people stranded bumper to bumper, children, wives, etc. screaming. Imagine that for a second.

No one mistakes Susan Wolding for an official nor a dam specialist. She's just a woman with a heart trying to forewarn people. That's how she's perceived.

If that Dam blows and up to a million people do die at least Susan tried.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70885715


Don't get me wrong. I find this dam terrifying, mainly the gates. This link to the Tony Johnson section of the 124 page Bea report has been posted countless times here.

[link to www.catholic.org (secure)]

But, you can't appeal to Cahill as the great expert talking about porting water in the hill and so forth, and then turn around and say he should be ignored when Lisa says that there is no reason for an immediate evacuation.

I know they are working on another video, and since the last one they did, we saw that internal erosion (mud). It is entirely possible they will say the situation has gotten more dire. Or perhaps they will say DWR has been grouting and the mud has not increased.( it doesn't look as bad now). I just don't know. I think Susan and crew should urge people towards relocation without the "get out now the dam is going to break any second"sort of exhortations. But what do I know.

Scott Cahill already said that the new Emergency Spillway apron hillside will not hold and will cut back to the lake (as in 2017) despite the secant cut off wall they put in. That's as negative as you can get. Maybe if we had gotten up to 898 or 899 and DWR said they wanted to try out the new ES, he would have said it is time to evacuate. I trust them...that's my bottom line. I don't trust the people at Wolding's chat to be anywhere as rational and knowledgeable.

Yeah, a sudden evacuation would be gridlock. Getting out a couple days before it hit 900 would have been very wise.

Going back to the gates, and the link above.....

You know all the talk about vibrations on the new spillway? Marty DeAngelo's buddy at MIT who got into the DWR dam sensors in the new spillway and they showed vibration? Jack in VA with the twitter pics of the diamond pattern in the water flowing down?

This is from that link, and I wonder if the gates were the source of the vibration and that is why the spillway was vibrating:

Today's modern Radial Gate designs have revealed a new and powerful force dynamic that was not well known years ago. Up to 60 ton Radial Gates have experienced a powerful "vibration" oscillation condition from critical flow levels in the gate openings. A standing wave of high and low pressure oscillation develops on the lower skin plates of the radial gate that transfers a complex set of distortions and movements to the massive steel gate structure. Indeed, experts are now attributing this powerful resonant oscillation vibration condition as a key component to the catastrophic failure of the Folsom Radial Tainter Gate in 1995 [11]. The power of this multi-mode form of oscillation in the massive trunnion gate structure would be dominant in forces applied to the Oroville Spillway Radial Gate design to these weakly coupled side seal assemblies. The wave action of the resonance would easily focus high forces on the side seal assembly individual aligning J-Bolts (now upgraded to eyebolts). This could cause either a shift in the alignment from "slip" or from "rotation" in the bolt compression area of the eyebolts. The result could be a swift and dangerous form of a strong binding condition to the gate in a virtual "freeze" state.

I wonder if the oscillation started and they panicked (with good reason) that they could have a Folsom gate #2 event and shut off the flow. Maybe the vibration was from this and not originating from the new spillway itself. Any thoughts from you engineering guys?

Anyway, I need to get some stuff done and get away from this dam LOL. Prayers for all.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Even if there's no imminent danger with the dam still if I lived downstream from the dam I would definitely be looking to move some place else, trying to get my job to transfer me to or trying to get a job lined up somewhere else, then trying to sell my house ASAP. I would certainly recommend those living downstream from this dam do that. I'm not saying they should just immediately pack up and leave and quit there jobs and go stay in a hotel or out in the woods somewhere. But definitely should be looking to move somewhere and get a job lined up somewhere else, then sell there house ASAP after they found another place to move and got a job lined up of course. I truly feel it's not a matter of if this dam breaks but a matter of when. It may not this year. It may not even be next year. Maybe not even the year after. But eventually this dam is going to break and take out virtually everything downstream from it.
Crunch62

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06/23/2019 11:19 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
A 7.3 EQ in Indonesia just now. It did register on the Oroville seismogram.

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov (secure)]
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 76564156
United States
06/24/2019 12:07 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
loL, DIDNT YOU GET THE MEMO? yOU NEED TO BACKTRACK AND EQUIVACATE NOW...
The dam dam is fine.... just LOOK at it...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76564156


You know, you can take five seconds to make sure your caps lock is doing what you think it is.

It's a slow forum, you don't have to run every post off in three seconds flat. There's no reason to desperately flail at your keyboard like this.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73049824


bump
 Quoting: sseess


BuH BuuuT the Damned dam iS STILL FiNE!

CaaaaNt you see ?
Anonymous Coward
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06/24/2019 12:09 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed
Guys, w'ere in the walk it it back phase now, get the memo? It's time to say, well "iT wAS close, We mIGHT stiLL be right next winter" "they have fised the REAL problem (earthquakes in micrONesia) so ther" but we
"err on the siDe of DOOM cAUTIONS" ya know