California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77544728 United States 04/14/2019 10:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed I have done the math. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73469899 There are live Oroville spillway cameras that give full evidence of the water situation on the spillway. Unless they open the spillway doors and release at least 10,000 cfs down the spillway... water will go over the top of the dam in a few weeks. Once the water goes over the top of the dam it will start eroding the backside of the dam. Then, the dam will fail. It will take out the left abutment...viewed as you face the dam possibly before it would go over the top. ... And then there is that leaking on to the dam front itself.. which I accidently in a previous post called the right abutment... Do you think a Catastrophic collapse of this dam is a Probability OR a Possibility? Probability... it will .. it just depends on the conditions as to the when. Back then I got my hands on some of the construction and got some interesting advice on the rock structure on that side between the spillway and the dam... and was told actual abutment area was not "tight" so to speak. California is shifting of course and somewhere around that time of the spillway failure etc there was also a small quake that rattled some of that area. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77544728 United States 04/14/2019 11:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed APRIL 11 Water level was at 859.50 Quoting: WorldofMadness I fear what might be to come... [link to oroville.lakesonline.com] the graph is most interesting... |
WorldofMadness User ID: 45142476 United States 04/14/2019 11:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed 83% full on April 11th, to now showing only at 11% full... doesn't make any since at all. Last Edited by WorldofMadness on 04/14/2019 11:03 PM What we fear doing most is usually what we most need to do. |
GERT User ID: 71687518 United States 04/14/2019 11:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed GLP Warning: holding a doom boner for over 2 years may require medical attention. Jk but in all seriousness I just have a feeling nothing will happen as far as a full structural failure/ loss of life situation |
UH User ID: 70817168 United States 04/14/2019 11:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed APRIL 11 Water level was at 859.50 Quoting: WorldofMadness I fear what might be to come... [link to oroville.lakesonline.com] the graph is most interesting... YEP..I'VE SEEN THAT...THE LEVEL IS GOING NO WHERE BUT UP...AND IT IS WAY MORE THAN THE OTHER LINES...FATTER AND HIGHER...! GOOD EYE! |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed CAP'N, I BET YOU'RE ABOUT READY TO WHIP IT OUT AND GIVE IT A TUG BECAUSE I KNOW YOU GET OFF ON THIS SHIT! DO YOU THINK A COLLAPSE OF THIS PHUKER IS IMMINENT? WE GOTS SNO MELT UH COMIN...SHOON...WE GOTS WEIRD BROKEN DATA AND BROKEN INS-TRA-MENTS....GRAPH ON LINE FOR THE STATE IS SHOWING AN EMPTY DAM FOR TWO FUCKIN DAYS NOW..AT LEAST... STORM NEXT FEW DAYS...BROKEN NEW SPILLWAY... ZERO ANNOUNCEMENTS...COMMUNICATIONS FROM 'THE DAM'... I'VE SAID PAGE 1111 ON THIS THREAD....A HEAT WAVE AND A STORM SYSTEM AND IT IS AT NEAR CAPACITY...SPILLWAY TURNED OFF...THE THING HAS NOT HELD THAT MUCH PRESSURE SINCE IT WAS WEAKENED..BACK THEN...WET SPOT GETS MORE PRESSURE TOO... SHIT....THIS THINGS READY TO SQUIRT THE WAY THEY R RUNNIN IT INTO THE GROUND....SON. MAN OH MAN, CAP'N...NOW YER SPEAKING MY KIND OF LANGUAGE, BROTHER!!! I'MMORE READY NOW THAN I'VE EVER BEEN!!! ARE YOU READY? GET READY MY BRROOTTHHEERR!! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 60905062 United States 04/14/2019 11:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed Your reply is worth 5*. Very interesting. ... Quoting: Prayandprepare000 Jack in VA has been showing what appears to be water underneath the new spillway. That rock in that area is not good bedrock. If you read about the St Francis Dam failure in 1928, it was a big cement dam, but they didn't know about the faults in the rock to the sides. There had been ancient landslides and the rock was not solid as it appeared. First time they filled it, water began to move through the rock on the sides, the abutments where the cement was hooked in, and it created hydraulic uplift. That is, in more simple terms, water pressure lifting up whatever is on top, in this case rock and cement. Hundreds of people drowned when the dam failed, and it failed very quickly, like in a few hours. People can't picture the power of water. You can't imagine water forcing up a cement dam or the rock above. But it can. Hydraulic uplift was not well understood 90 years ago but it is now, and it is scary. Cahill and Robert Bea, the disaster guy from Berkley, both think water is moving through rocks under the gates, which is rock to the side of the dam itself. The spillway is off to the side. Can hydraulic uplift make the new spillway, which is well bolted into the rock, go up? Maybe not. But if it is starting to move underneath and fissures widen, it could bring down the lake to whatever depth it erodes. I remain very concerned. I wish they would lower the water as much as possible and reduce water pressure on any seepage in the rocks....or into that green spot. and water under the new spillway says either they screwed up.. or that whole LEFT embankment is fucked... Good post .. thankyou. Thank you! Here's the thing. If if was just GLP posting, with AC comments, well, you could take it all with a grain of salt. Maybe a whole saltshaker. But it would just be GLP woo woo. But that isn't what this is. We have Scott Cahill, who has done government classes for dam safety for years, and spent his life doing dam safety (his wife too), saying it isn't safe. We have Robert Bea whose expertise is in catastrophic failures- like the space shuttle- saying that green spot is not normal seepage but cause for serious concern. Then we have his buddy Tony Johnson and the detailed analysis of cracks in the gates and other problems. This isn't GLP AC woo woo from my uncle. This is scary stuff when you think of Central Valley, the greatest agricultural region in the world. Not to mention all the dead people we are potentially looking at. I read somewhere last year that they were grouting up by the gates. Can't remember where. I think it was a comment by someone who lives near there. That's normal- earth dams seep and get voids and you grout them like a dentist filling a cavity. By the gates would be rock voids. I figured they filled the voids under the gates and old spillway during the last two years. I mean, they would have to fill any voids, how dumb can they be? They can't be that dumb :) So now it is leaking again, and badly, in the place where it was supposedly grouted? I hope that thing holds up by the undeserved mercy of God. Although I am not an expert.. I was married to a Bureau of Reclamations civil engineer and I learned a bunch from that. Some of it lost due to time of course. I was able to visit as much as I wanted at the research labs there... where they had mockups of every one of the dams they built. One interesting experience during my marriage is he went to a dam being built in Texas.. I would have to look up the name and the town nearby we lived in for a time.. But any way for a long summer I got to watch an earthen dam being built.. the daily layering anyway of the dirt. We saw the collapsed Teton Dam a few weeks after that happened... We were on the way to visit relatives and had opportunity to view it along the way. It collapsed while he was working for the Bureau. Dams continue to fascinate me and I paid a lot of attention to Oroville. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76809044 United States 04/14/2019 11:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed well, you can go back and look at the close-up videos of the spillway working (since it opened) and you can clearly see the the uniformly oscillating waves that form. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed It will take out the left abutment...viewed as you face the dam possibly before it would go over the top. ... And then there is that leaking on to the dam front itself.. which I accidently in a previous post called the right abutment... Do you think a Catastrophic collapse of this dam is a Probability OR a Possibility? Probability... it will .. it just depends on the conditions as to the when. Back then I got my hands on some of the construction and got some interesting advice on the rock structure on that side between the spillway and the dam... and was told actual abutment area was not "tight" so to speak. California is shifting of course and somewhere around that time of the spillway failure etc there was also a small quake that rattled some of that area. Wow. I'm in awe. Is there anything else that you'd like to share? |
Miss Bunny Swan User ID: 77292730 Australia 04/14/2019 11:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 77544728 United States 04/14/2019 11:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed ... Quoting: ALL IS ONE IS ALL It will take out the left abutment...viewed as you face the dam possibly before it would go over the top. ... And then there is that leaking on to the dam front itself.. which I accidently in a previous post called the right abutment... Do you think a Catastrophic collapse of this dam is a Probability OR a Possibility? Probability... it will .. it just depends on the conditions as to the when. Back then I got my hands on some of the construction and got some interesting advice on the rock structure on that side between the spillway and the dam... and was told actual abutment area was not "tight" so to speak. California is shifting of course and somewhere around that time of the spillway failure etc there was also a small quake that rattled some of that area. Wow. I'm in awe. Is there anything else that you'd like to share? Tomorrow maybe.. I am over do for my sleep... getting off. I had a printed image I marked up and sadly it appearantly got lost in a force move I had to make.. lots of paperwork and stuff disappeared.. tossed accidently I suppose with others. I am trying to image from my memory which might be helped If I can look up some of the construction images that were on the net... I don't know if any of that is posted in this thread. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed ... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13358554 Do you think a Catastrophic collapse of this dam is a Probability OR a Possibility? Probability... it will .. it just depends on the conditions as to the when. Back then I got my hands on some of the construction and got some interesting advice on the rock structure on that side between the spillway and the dam... and was told actual abutment area was not "tight" so to speak. California is shifting of course and somewhere around that time of the spillway failure etc there was also a small quake that rattled some of that area. Wow. I'm in awe. Is there anything else that you'd like to share? Tmorrow maybe.. I am over do for my sleep... getting off. I had a printed images I marked up and sadly it appearantly got lost in a force move I had to make.. lots of paperwork and stuff disappeared.. tossed accidently I suppose with others. I am trying to image from my memory which might be helped If I can look up some of the construction images that were on the net... I don't know if any of that is posted in this thread. Okay...Get a good nights rest and talk dirty to us tomorrow. You will talk dirty to us tomorrow, right? |
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UH User ID: 70817168 United States 04/14/2019 11:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed CAP'N, I BET YOU'RE ABOUT READY TO WHIP IT OUT AND GIVE IT A TUG BECAUSE I KNOW YOU GET OFF ON THIS SHIT! DO YOU THINK A COLLAPSE OF THIS PHUKER IS IMMINENT? WE GOTS SNO MELT UH COMIN...SHOON...WE GOTS WEIRD BROKEN DATA AND BROKEN INS-TRA-MENTS....GRAPH ON LINE FOR THE STATE IS SHOWING AN EMPTY DAM FOR TWO FUCKIN DAYS NOW..AT LEAST... STORM NEXT FEW DAYS...BROKEN NEW SPILLWAY... ZERO ANNOUNCEMENTS...COMMUNICATIONS FROM 'THE DAM'... I'VE SAID PAGE 1111 ON THIS THREAD....A HEAT WAVE AND A STORM SYSTEM AND IT IS AT NEAR CAPACITY...SPILLWAY TURNED OFF...THE THING HAS NOT HELD THAT MUCH PRESSURE SINCE IT WAS WEAKENED..BACK THEN...WET SPOT GETS MORE PRESSURE TOO... SHIT....THIS THINGS READY TO SQUIRT THE WAY THEY R RUNNIN IT INTO THE GROUND....SON. MAN OH MAN, CAP'N...NOW YER SPEAKING MY KIND OF LANGUAGE, BROTHER!!! I'MMORE READY NOW THAN I'VE EVER BEEN!!! ARE YOU READY? GET READY MY BRROOTTHHEERR!! BEST BUMP FOR INFO TOO! |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 77544728 United States 04/14/2019 11:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed ... Quoting: ALL IS ONE IS ALL Probability... it will .. it just depends on the conditions as to the when. Back then I got my hands on some of the construction and got some interesting advice on the rock structure on that side between the spillway and the dam... and was told actual abutment area was not "tight" so to speak. California is shifting of course and somewhere around that time of the spillway failure etc there was also a small quake that rattled some of that area. Wow. I'm in awe. Is there anything else that you'd like to share? Tmorrow maybe.. I am over do for my sleep... getting off. I had a printed images I marked up and sadly it appearantly got lost in a force move I had to make.. lots of paperwork and stuff disappeared.. tossed accidently I suppose with others. I am trying to image from my memory which might be helped If I can look up some of the construction images that were on the net... I don't know if any of that is posted in this thread. Okay...Get a good nights rest and talk dirty to us tomorrow. You will talk dirty to us tomorrow, right? I will do my best...this is always a favorite topic.. with bad dams... there in one in Tennessee I think it is that may go to at some point... and I forget which city is below that one.. but it will get 20 feet of sudden flood water. Man forgets this is not a finished planet yet and it will rock and roll. |
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Midwest Skeptic User ID: 77556714 United States 04/14/2019 11:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed The Oroville Lake usually tops out between the middle of April and the first of May (if you go back and look at it's historic fluctuations). We are already in Mid April, so at most there is ONLY two more weeks of rise left in the lake if this year's spring is a typical spring. REMEMBER ... Rain in that part of California is SEASONAL, and they are about to hit the beginning of their DRY SEASON. Snow Melt is ALREADY OCCURING ... sheesh, it has been sunny and well above freezing in much of the watershed for some time now. Where does anybody get the idea that the snow isn't melting yet? NO substantial rain has hit the watershed for almost 2 weeks now (and what they have had only totaled 2/10 of an inch), which is further confirmation that the water going into the reservoir IS ALL Snow Melt!! The dam operators have been holding the inflow/outflow numbers to a fairly steady 8 to 10,000 cf/s net inflow for a number of days now, which is creating a SLOW increase in the lake level. Barring a major rain event, which would also accelerate the snow melt, there is nothing in the cards which would cause a sudden rise in the lake level. (the hourly reports as to the lake level are screwed up at the moment and have been for several days now but the inflow /outflow numbers are in the range that they should be with the lack of rain in the watershed) Due to the heavier than normal snow pack this year the Snow Melt runoff should continue for some additional time compared to a normal year ... which will also keep the lake level higher longer than in a normal year once it peaks later this month but that doesn't mean that the lake will rise rise rise after it's normal peaking time since they will continue to send down to Southern California and to the Delta at about 10,000 cf/s probably through most of the rest of the spring and summer. Oroville has problems ... but unless there is either a massive rain event in the next 3 weeks, a failure of part of the gate structure, or a large earthquake, most of the risk has now passed for this year. Next year may be a different story, but for this year most of the risk has now passed. Midwest Skeptic |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 76809044 United States 04/14/2019 11:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 77544728 United States 04/14/2019 11:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed NO IT DOESN'T COCK FER BRAINS...YOU DONT LOSE 2.5 MILLION ACRE FEET OF WATER BY TURNING OFF A FUCKING SPILLWAY! so, they have a secret water diversion project? they're stealing water? There was stealing water from another dam a few years ago... to underground projects.. on another system of dams that runs down into .. well I got to look at a map.. but a whole series of dams running from Colorado down to the Baja roughly... I am not sure what the fellow above is refering too.. having not watched all of this.. and NOW GOOD NIGHT... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed |
Prayandprepare000 User ID: 74211141 United States 04/14/2019 11:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed Oroville Dam watch group. [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] By the way, I was the one who said that the high Sierras were not melting yet. Read that elsewhere. If I am wrong, my apologies. We are not the only ones wondering about the sudden spillway shut off. |
oak1971 User ID: 77285491 United States 04/14/2019 11:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed This is not a normal year, as if there is such a thing. Humans and their penchant for normalcy... Grand Solar Minimum. Say it with me. Built by God Powered by Jesus. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 13358554 United States 04/14/2019 11:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed The Oroville Lake usually tops out between the middle of April and the first of May (if you go back and look at it's historic fluctuations). We are already in Mid April, so at most there is ONLY two more weeks of rise left in the lake if this year's spring is a typical spring. Quoting: Midwest Skeptic REMEMBER ... Rain in that part of California is SEASONAL, and they are about to hit the beginning of their DRY SEASON. Snow Melt is ALREADY OCCURING ... sheesh, it has been sunny and well above freezing in much of the watershed for some time now. Where does anybody get the idea that the snow isn't melting yet? NO substantial rain has hit the watershed for almost 2 weeks now (and what they have had only totaled 2/10 of an inch), which is further confirmation that the water going into the reservoir IS ALL Snow Melt!! The dam operators have been holding the inflow/outflow numbers to a fairly steady 8 to 10,000 cf/s net inflow for a number of days now, which is creating a SLOW increase in the lake level. Barring a major rain event, which would also accelerate the snow melt, there is nothing in the cards which would cause a sudden rise in the lake level. (the hourly reports as to the lake level are screwed up at the moment and have been for several days now but the inflow /outflow numbers are in the range that they should be with the lack of rain in the watershed) Due to the heavier than normal snow pack this year the Snow Melt runoff should continue for some additional time compared to a normal year ... which will also keep the lake level higher longer than in a normal year once it peaks later this month but that doesn't mean that the lake will rise rise rise after it's normal peaking time since they will continue to send down to Southern California and to the Delta at about 10,000 cf/s probably through most of the rest of the spring and summer. Oroville has problems ... but unless there is either a massive rain event in the next 3 weeks, a failure of part of the gate structure, or a large earthquake, most of the risk has now passed for this year. Next year may be a different story, but for this year most of the risk has now passed. YOU DON'T KNOW DIK, DO YOU PAL? WHAT ARE YOUR CREDENTIALS YOU ASSFUK?! |