California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam's Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed

NEXT PINE IS RIGHT AF-TUH IT BLOWS..OR BREACHES...

Relax, sheriff says everything fine, piles of wet dirt are immune to earthquakes...

BROTHER UH,

THAT GUY FROM FULLERTON THINKS THEY WILL NOT ISSUE AN EVACUATION ORDER THIS TIME. HE THINKS "THEY" WILL JUST LET ALL THOSE PEOPLE PERISH!

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE MATTER?

Relax, sheriff says everything fine, piles of wet dirt are immune to earthquakes...

Honestly, I have no idea. I have not been trained sufficiently in concrete. It is definitely possible.

YOU SIMPLY CANNOT HAVE A HUMAN SACRAFICE...WITHOUT....WAIT FOR IT...HUMAN SACRAFICES..

Attention- midwest sceptic.

Hi, and thanks for your very courteous reply that I read many hours and a gazillion threads ago.

First of all, here is a photo from 2015 during drought:

oops, that was from gizmodo and is banned here when I tried to post. So just google drought pictures.

The slope of the basin is obvious, so your point is well taken that identical inflows at various levels will cause different rates of increase.

This comment below echoed yours: "Hate to be a kill joy, but 20 feet when the reservoir section measured is 50 ft across is probably less than half an inch when its near the top and it’s 1/4 mile across."

(I found this amusing: "It looks good on paper, but as for the Acre Feet we need another 5 years of this weather. At least." Little did they know what two years would bring.)

This is where I got that 1 inch equals 12 feet:

[link to www.metabunk.org (secure)]

"GE tells me this is 3672 square miles. Oroville Lake is 25 square miles. So the watershed is very roughly 150x the lake area.

Very simplistically that would mean if you get 1" of rain, then that's maximum 150" of lake rise (12.5 feet)"

********

then in the thread:

"On Jan 8, the lake level was at 805.5, 2254644 acre-feet. On Jan 9, 820.67, 2433696. So you could estimate the AF at the 813.6 level using those. When the lake level was 900.11, 3539318 AF. So it looks like that top between where spillway can empty, up to spilling over the emergency spillway, is roughly 1.2 million acre feet of water.
Or about 7 inches of rain over the entire watershed, (none of it falling as snow)"

my note- 7 inches of rain to go from from 813 to 901 is 88 feet, or 12+ feet rise per inch.

*****

"Agreed, and we can do a different ballpark calculation, with 3600 square miles of catchment, what the CFS for 1" over 24 hours? It's 3600*5280*5280/12/24/60/60 = 96K cfs."
_______________________

Note that you need to run that spillway at 100,000 cfs to deal with one inch of rain in a day, which is how they were running it in 2017.

This is just from page 1 and there are 5 pages of back and forth discussion on lake levels and inflow. I want to get to it later but no time right now.

Going back to levels, this is my amazing find of the day. It was linked on the metabunk thread:

[link to water.ca.gov (secure)]

I can't link to individual pages but slightly more than half way down is a chart of every level of Lake O, and the acre feet. Here are some figures:

These numbers are 1000 acre feet:

lake level, then acre feet (I rounded a little bit)

500- 2.7
600- 4.8
700-7.6
800- 11.3
840-13
900-15.8

So the acre feet increase from 500-600 doubles, 600-700 less than double rise, 700-800 roughly 50% increase, 800-900 less than 50% rise.

Too lazy to do exact figures, but it does indicate that the higher you go, the slower the lake rises, as you pointed out.

The things is though, back when Mick West came up with that 1" rain= 12' rise, the rains were falling and the spillway was gushing and water levels were pretty high. So I am thinking your 4 foot figure might be way too low. But like I said, I only read page 1 out of 5 on that thread and I need to go back and see if there is more.

Anyway, it's all academic if we get the predicted forecast and they don't start spilling at 100,000 cfs which was what they needed in 2017 during the rain to stop any overflow.

Everyone keeps mentioning the lights, but I keep thinking they are monitoring things that are not in the visual spectrum.

I wasn't logged in for the post above directed to Prayandprepare000

California DWR reports meeting Nov. 1 deadline for Oroville Dam spillway reconstruction

The newly constructed spillway is now built to its original design capacity of 270,000 cubic feet per second.

[link to www.hydroworld.com (secure)]

PLEASE EXPOUND!

THANKS IN ADVANCE!

EVERYTHING SOUNDED GOOD RIGHT UP TO THE PART ABOUT REMOTE VIEWING!

PERSONALLY I THINK IT'S A BUNCH OF BULLSHIT! OF COURSE, AS WITH PRAYER, SOMETIMES THINGS ON THE SUPERNATURAL PLANE BECOME REALITY.

WE'LL SEE, WON'T WE?

EVERYTHING SOUNDED GOOD RIGHT UP TO THE PART ABOUT REMOTE VIEWING!

PERSONALLY I THINK IT'S A BUNCH OF BULLSHIT! OF COURSE, AS WITH PRAYER, SOMETIMES THINGS ON THE SUPERNATURAL PLANE BECOME REALITY.

WE'LL SEE, WON'T WE?

Is true but the system down stream can not handle that much water.

Which is why they should have been dumping at least 15k CFS 24/7.

That is the puzzling part. Why wait until they are forced to dump a shit ton of water? On a spillway that hasn't been real life tested beyond 20k CFS.

Take it for what it's worth :-) . You and everyone is FREE to totally disregard those.

I only added that in since it was in my notes,. with a bunch of question marks next to it, when I was reviewing them from the 2017 event so I thought I would throw it out here FWIW.

I personally used to totally dismiss such stuff as TOTAL NONSENSE ... and then I saw several accurate future projections of VERY LARGE events prior to them happening which made me scratch my head and realize that maybe we don't know everything about how the universe works.

Again take it for what it's worth. It actually popped up AFTER I had done my calculations last night of the watershed's and lake's ability wrt to hold back the upcoming Rain Event.

As noted by Prayandprepare000 a page or two back the rain finally reaches the lake a number of hours AFTER it falls. He utilizes a 2 day and 4 day dynamic. In 2017 I noted an 18 hour to 30 hour inbound PEAKING time (rain falling on SATURATED soil), which matches up nicely with his 2 day projection this time around (since upstream lakes are full and will need to release IMMEDIATELY).

Now that they are apparently saying they will hold off opening the spillway until the lake hits 899 we have TOTAL CONFIRMATION IMO that the main spillway structure, OR the spillway is in deep doo doo (maybe both). At 899 they are leaving NO RESERVE CAPACITY IN THE LAKE FOR STORAGE!! NO reasonable engineer would EVER do that ... unless there were serious structural issues pushing them in that direction (do these guys work for Boeing on the side??).

Fingers crossed that the Rain Event becomes a NON event, and that little rain hits the watershed.

IT'S SPELLED 'WORLOCK'...SIR..

Overview of the reservoirs in the watershed that feeds the Oroville Reservoir in Butte County, California. Information about the forks of the Feather River that flow into Lake Oroville.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

PLEASE EXPOUND!

THANKS IN ADVANCE!

GFS model, 10 day accumulated precipitation

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Lots of potential inflows if the temperature rises.