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Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?

 
-Adam-
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02/22/2017 04:41 PM
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Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Anti-Shill Disclaimer: This is only a speculation topic. Not intended for anyone to make real life decisions from. With that said, there is no reason to shill.



Look at this massive hole
[link to s.yimg.com (secure)]


Before the crisis, this is what a normal release looks like. Thought to be a big deal.



Now, ask yourself this...does that look like all the water pushing out is much more then what the spillway is dumping?




It is very coincidental the main spillway developed a hole that size suddenly. All the while the lake is filling to it's absolute maximum capacity.

Looks like it was blown out in the beginning.
[link to hips.htvapps.com]

Ask this....

Why did the hole start off so big? The moment their is trouble they would have shut off the flow, and they did. The VERY MOMENT there was an issue the flow down the MS was halted.

You know what I think. I don't think it is a coincidence the MS blew out a huge hole as if dynamite was set below in the ground. I think a VERY SMALL crack was applying pressure behind the spillway. Eventually blasting open from extreme water pressure as the lake fills up.

Yet, there would be little to no flow visible right away. When she blows out, that micro crack is not going to flow a lot, yet. It was just a pocket of water that was pressurized through the crack.

BUT, the flow has started. Over time it will grow and grow and grow. Until it is ripping out massive sections. Which is the case today.


All earthen dams become soaked over time. This potential blow out, if that is what it is, is below the normal water line.




The biggest clue is the coincidence.

Coincidence the MS blew a massive hole at the same time the lake was filling very high.

Last Edited by -Adam- on 02/22/2017 05:32 PM
Crazy Harriet

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02/22/2017 04:53 PM

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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Are you asking how deep the big hole is? Is it an example of the leaching from behind as seen in the Teton Dam videos? Interesting. Keeping it open would cover that up, wouldn't it?

Was going to say NO, but then took another look at some earlier dam disasters and don't see the brown water and rocks and other debris I'd expect in a failure. Water looks just fine.

Opening a can of worms? We won't know until it's over.

Interesting speculation, though!
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-Adam-  (OP)

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02/22/2017 04:57 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Are you asking how deep the big hole is? Is it an example of the leaching from behind as seen in the Teton Dam videos? Interesting. Keeping it open would cover that up, wouldn't it?

Was going to say NO, but then took another look at some earlier dam disasters and don't see the brown water and rocks and other debris I'd expect in a failure. Water looks just fine.

Opening a can of worms? We won't know until it's over.

Interesting speculation, though!
 Quoting: Crazy Harriet


It all seemed so coincidental.

The massive hole AND the lake filling to the tip at the same time.

Prior to that hole, I doubt they were pumping THAT much out. And if they were before that hole was made, they were in crisis mode a LONG time ago. We are just now finding out.


I think it is possible. A small pocket of trapped moisture gaining pressure via a small fissure. Which would dissipate if not for the spillway over top. Naturally by design of earthen dams.

Enough pressure was applied and pop, the water zit burst. Probably weeping very little immediately after.

But then yeah, look at the videos of the spillway busted up. It just looks like more water is rushing into the river then what is let out at the spillway gates.

I could be wrong. I could be right.
Judethz
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02/22/2017 04:58 PM

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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
It is very coincidental the main spillway developed a hole that size suddenly. All the while the lake is filling to it's absolute maximum capacity.

 Quoting: -Adam-


9teen Well there was this from a few days ago. But I'm sure that it was just a coincidence. LOL [link to youtu.be (secure)]
-Adam-  (OP)

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02/22/2017 05:00 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Why don't we have pics of the spillway with just a small crack, or a small patch hole with rubble below?

Instead, we see the hole with part of the under back side missing. How did that happen so quickly?

Another point that just hit me......


WHY DIDN'T WE SEE THE DEBRIS IMMEDIATELY BELOW THE SPILLWAY STREWN DOWN THE WAY? I think it was blown out. Which why we didn't see pieces stuck by the diffusers.
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2017 05:01 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Nobody mentions the earthquake that happened the day the hole appeared, either. It was centered on a quarry a few miles to the NW at a depth of .6 registering 2.2M.
It obviously caused the hole.
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-Adam-  (OP)

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02/22/2017 05:01 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
It is very coincidental the main spillway developed a hole that size suddenly. All the while the lake is filling to it's absolute maximum capacity.

 Quoting: -Adam-


9teen Well there was this from a few days ago. But I'm sure that it was just a coincidence. LOL [link to youtu.be (secure)]
 Quoting: Judethz


...and there you go. See, could have been an earthquake created crack.

Thanks Judethz
-Adam-  (OP)

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02/22/2017 05:04 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Like this pic....look how deep that hole is towards the lake.

[link to hips.htvapps.com]

That looks blown out. Not washed out.
-Adam-  (OP)

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02/22/2017 05:31 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
Here is a good pic showing what I mean.

I think that back part of the hole was water under pressure.

[link to s.yimg.com (secure)]
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02/22/2017 11:11 PM
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Re: Oroville Dam: Did lake pressure blow out the Main Spillway?
It has been damaged for several years, look here...

[link to www.abc10.com]
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