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Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 08:52 AM
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Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
The so-called Trump trades (long financials, US Dollar, short bonds) are faltering.....

Substantial Outflows from US markets last week, breaking the strong inflow trend since the election....

Perhaps overlooked, and counter-intuitive fact, is that international markets- particularly Europe and Asia, are IMPROVING. Much of US stock market strength, and US Dollar domination has been a safe-haven investment rather than direct vote of confidence in US economic fundamentals. Now this supportive structure could not only be stopping its inflows, but reversing as people repatriate their investments seeking higher returns.

And thats before even mentioning superboost based on the Trump economic expectations... 100% hope...

The healthcare and tax plans are so complicated... and there is so much political bitterness and volatility...

I supported and continue to support Trump... I believe he was being wiretapped (its just not physical wiretapping anymore since its all just digital networks on fiber... so semantics is basis of all the denials)... I think Trump simply wasnt prepared for the severity of the petty nature
of politicians that are supposed to be on his side and supporting him....

But you see, Trump is playing Celebrity President... its his own reality show. He knows his shit... there was a reason why his shows were so popular... its hard to disagree with his logic and conclusions he makes and walks the audience through.

Call it 4D chess, call it whatever the hell you want. But Trump obviously now realizes he must pop the market bubbles, and the putrid infected puss that drains out will stain the career politicians, regardless of party....

Drain the swamp, they will.
Step 1. Hurt their pocketbooks.

He's already started a foodfight between repubs and dems over healthcare failure; now he just must step asside, go do some rallies, and watch this stock market puke up about 10%-15%, PMs gonna fly....

When trump returns to the board there will be much more upside to be had. Until then everything is just about survival in all modes.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2017 09:35 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
ok so theres a 1 star, 3 star, and 4 star vote, but no comment...

or is it a 1 star, 2 star, and a 5 star....

whatever, just somebody else bump this and hey, feel free to add a comment or ask me a question, I'll be checking in most of the day.

I know things about stuff.
TheToolMan

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03/26/2017 09:38 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I have you 5 stars. You're right but it won't take them long to update the trading models to push it positive again.
"My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance."
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 09:38 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Are you thinking PMs jump this week?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2017 09:46 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Are you thinking PMs jump this week?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74547702


Yes I think yes... If you look at the charts, Gold was clearly above 1250 and wouldve secured obvious uptrend on Friday... but instead it got hammered into the close (as is typical- see VIX for almost daily examples). The point is the "technicals" that everyone follows like the gospel are simply not showing the bullish behavior that truly has been active for gold particularly the past couple weeks.

Silver is gonna pop off for a $1.00 or $1.50 gainer one of these days.

The miners have been the laggards... Some see it as a negative sign for the metals, personally I see it as dangerous positioning of speculators based on the strong dollar wagers. So it could unwind violently, and the miners might continue to lag if the market truly does tank, but I think its more likely for modest losses in markets (initially at least) which will let miners go crazy.

If you compare some of the gold miners to their prices at the beginning of the year, when gold itself was still sub 1200.... you will clearly see the miners have catching up to do. Could be 10% or more this week...

Hope that helps.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2017 09:49 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I have you 5 stars. You're right but it won't take them long to update the trading models to push it positive again.
 Quoting: TheToolMan


Thank you!!

And yes you are so right. The market melt-up, endlessly every single day it seems like, is just crazy. Absolutely astonishing....

But that pattern will invert... eventually the big boys will cannibalize each other- in the same ways they collude and screw everyone over now... they'll have to abandon their schemes that sap up liquidity and resources to try to get on the right side of things....

These things are actually good for longterm health of economy. I love my country I dont want us to carsh and burn... but the fakery leading to neverending rising markets and record low volatility in spite of spiking uncertainty.... thats a recipe for true disaster.

Controlled demolition while we still have the option.

PULL IT!!
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 09:53 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Agree with you, OP.

Little by little the market (and the people) are beginning to see that Trump is a sham, flipping positions, and cannot or will not deliver on his campaign promises.

Particularly after the TrumpCare fail, there is nothing left to support the Trump bubble that happened.

I look for a substantial market pullback this week.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 09:54 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Agree with you, OP.

Little by little the market (and the people) are beginning to see that Trump is a sham, flipping positions, and cannot or will not deliver on his campaign promises.

Particularly after the TrumpCare fail, there is nothing left to support the Trump bubble that happened.

I look for a substantial market pullback this week.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73402206


hesright
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/26/2017 10:01 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Agree with you, OP.

Little by little the market (and the people) are beginning to see that Trump is a sham, flipping positions, and cannot or will not deliver on his campaign promises.

Particularly after the TrumpCare fail, there is nothing left to support the Trump bubble that happened.

I look for a substantial market pullback this week.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73402206


Absolutely....

The funny thing is, lots of people have been looking for substantial pullbacks since Brexit... then the US Election... then the new year... its gone on and on and on and now everybody is desensitized and too many pundits and experts have been too embarrassed by their incorrect prognostications to risk repeating the blunder... or are just simply defeated and joining the bull crowd.

If there's one thing that has been certain as of late... crowded trades fail. Look at bonds, dollar, the indexes in general... whenever the market is ever certain of something... usually its already inflected back the other way.

Great example... EURO vs. USD... Euro should be absolutely trashed.. but it already has been... look for it to rise simply from speculative investments unwinding and cutting losses.

I can almost guarantee you that long VIX plays are not overcrowded, because selling VIX has been guaranteed bank for almost a year now.... What people dont understand, particularly with the leveraged VIX products... is that the premiums seem unnaturally high because they can erupt like we've literally never seen.... quickly... and at a certain level the dam will burst and everyone trying to cover short is going to limit down the market.

Maybe not this week... but all this will happen before anybody is ready for it... before the crowd is able to become crowded...

its due to get a lot of attention this week... so time to position for a kill may be very short indeed.
Judethz

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03/26/2017 10:07 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
dynamite
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03/26/2017 12:07 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I have you 5 stars. You're right but it won't take them long to update the trading models to push it positive again.
 Quoting: TheToolMan


Thank you!!

And yes you are so right. The market melt-up, endlessly every single day it seems like, is just crazy. Absolutely astonishing....

But that pattern will invert... eventually the big boys will cannibalize each other- in the same ways they collude and screw everyone over now... they'll have to abandon their schemes that sap up liquidity and resources to try to get on the right side of things....

These things are actually good for longterm health of economy. I love my country I dont want us to carsh and burn... but the fakery leading to neverending rising markets and record low volatility in spite of spiking uncertainty.... thats a recipe for true disaster.

Controlled demolition while we still have the option.

PULL IT!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74507268


Ok thanks. I think a ramp up in the metals is long overdue personally; would be nice to see something this week.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 12:07 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
seal
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03/26/2017 12:08 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
No carsh this year, DOOM OFF they kicked the can..AGAIN
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 12:09 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I have you 5 stars. You're right but it won't take them long to update the trading models to push it positive again.
 Quoting: TheToolMan


Thank you!!

And yes you are so right. The market melt-up, endlessly every single day it seems like, is just crazy. Absolutely astonishing....

But that pattern will invert... eventually the big boys will cannibalize each other- in the same ways they collude and screw everyone over now... they'll have to abandon their schemes that sap up liquidity and resources to try to get on the right side of things....

These things are actually good for longterm health of economy. I love my country I dont want us to carsh and burn... but the fakery leading to neverending rising markets and record low volatility in spite of spiking uncertainty.... thats a recipe for true disaster.

Controlled demolition while we still have the option.

PULL IT!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74507268


Ok thanks. I think a ramp up in the metals is long overdue personally; would be nice to see something this week.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74547702


I replied to the wrong post, but still...let's see this week unfold.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 12:11 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Might fall back as far as 20k, that's it. Carsh? No.
GT Big hair

User ID: 2251477
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03/26/2017 12:13 PM

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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
ok so theres a 1 star, 3 star, and 4 star vote, but no comment...

or is it a 1 star, 2 star, and a 5 star....

whatever, just somebody else bump this and hey, feel free to add a comment or ask me a question, I'll be checking in most of the day.

I know things about stuff.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74507268


just a correction coming this week...

dialing back some bullish optimism...


timeout

so, no carsh just yet...
Silvertards should be saddling up tho...


yep
GT Big hair...yep and Amen.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 12:16 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I remember when I used to get worked up about this shit. Then I missed the greatest rally in galactic history waiting for the imminent crash that never happened. Lesson learned: the markets are all rigged and not for my benefit.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 10:11 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I remember when I used to get worked up about this shit. Then I missed the greatest rally in galactic history waiting for the imminent crash that never happened. Lesson learned: the markets are all rigged and not for my benefit.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73244864


Hey OP here... I think I got myself banned- unforced error....

But anyways so far my calls are looking pretty solid....

And yeah I don know if it'll be a full on crash or just a minucarsh correction or harmless "pullback".... but here's one observation I've made while obsessing over the markets the past 18 months or so.

The reason why it hasn't gone down is that TBTB are afraid to test it. The momentum may overwhelm their control mechanisms.

I know for fairly certain based on observation that double and triple leveraged funds are the tail that wags the dog. Specifically, vix products... they jackhammer vix into ground... markets melt up gold and silver take another one on the chin.

The only way they could evrr successfully pull off a transition/rebalance of market paradigms back to less rigged more realistic footing is to pull it before investors have a chance to dogpile the trades... if they don't lose control is can be done in reasonable fashion...

And leveraged funds being double edged sword.... you don't have to have markets drop 25% to sustain losses of that magnitude... 5%-8% can end up being just about the same result...

Ok sorry for so many words. I am excited and just praying this slide doesn't do magical recovery by AM much like eating a whole turkey leg in old Nintendo games gets you back to 100%..
The Sheeple's Sheeple

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03/26/2017 11:13 PM

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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I remember when I used to get worked up about this shit. Then I missed the greatest rally in galactic history waiting for the imminent crash that never happened. Lesson learned: the markets are all rigged and not for my benefit.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73244864




I'm with you on that. I've been expecting the big one since the last one. And still nothing. So now cash until it happens. At least I've stocked on silver and all tolled am averaging at about $12/oz. I was waiting for that to hit $14 again but I think that ship has sailed.










sheep
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2017 11:17 PM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I don't expect any carsh in the next 36 months
Anonymous Coward
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03/27/2017 12:00 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
I remember when I used to get worked up about this shit. Then I missed the greatest rally in galactic history waiting for the imminent crash that never happened. Lesson learned: the markets are all rigged and not for my benefit.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73244864


^^ it's not based in reality anymore, they use high-speed computer trading. The market will never collapse again, Only correct.
Anonymous Coward
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09/21/2023 12:42 AM
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Re: Looking like Stock Markets CARSH might actually, finally, be ON... This time its different
Soon!





GLP