The Opening Salvo of a Limited Nuclear War

Forget MAD, the name of the game is now controlled escalatory steps. The theory is that a nuclear war won't be unleashed in one insane world-ending spasm, but take the form of proportional exhanges until one side has had enough and concedes the field. Such a nuclear war could go on for weeks, even months, as both sides take stock of their losses and plan their next step. That's the theory, anyway.

One scenario I've seen wargammed goes like this;

After a period of increasing tensions, Russia recognizes that war is inevitable, and seeks to get the first punch in. It will be a limited exhange designed to give Russia the maximum advantage in future exhanges.

A single Delta III submarine in the Artic Ocean launches 16 ballistic missiles. 14 are aimed at North America, 2 at Britain. Each missile releases 3 nuclear warheads with a yield of 500 kilotons. The targets are America's 2 ballistic missile submarine bases, one on each coast, as well as 3 airbases home to America's strategic bomber force. The 6 warheads streaking down on Scotland are aimed at the UK's deterrent force.

48 nuclear warheads detonate in the sky above their targets; this maximises overpressure and minimises radioactive fallout. This will be a "clean" strike. In one fell swoop, America loses 1/3 if its strategic submarine force, those at pier and in overhaul, and virtually all of its strategic bombers. 120,000 Americans are killed instantly, at least that number again are terribly injured. British dead number about 10,000, and they have lost 3 of their 4 missile submarines.

Russia knows America will retaliate, and they count on it being a retaliation in kind. Already they have exacuated their bomber bases, and flushed their submarines into deep water. When the American warheads fall they will do little strategic damage. The ICBM silos of both sides will remain untouched.

This is day 1. It will only get worse.