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Message Subject It has always fascinated me that the last battle will be fought on horseback...
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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You bible tards might be right.

You know the age of oil is coming to an end very soon.

Those who survive will be riding horses or camels.

Petroleum depletion is further advanced, and its production will decline faster than generally assumed.
Conventional reservoir appraisal methods are founded on First Law premises, but neglect Second Law
effects. Although extremely applicative to individual field analysis, when applied to the status of the
world's petroleum reserve they produce inconsistent results. In consequence, the last 25% of the world's
energy supplying reserve will be orders of magnitude more costly to produce than was the first 25%.
The advancing depletion of the world's petroleum reserve could bring about changes of a magnitude
that have not been witnessed for millennium! To navigate this conflicting, and difficult era an
understanding of the events taking place will be essential. It is our hope that this report will contribute
to that endeavor.

“Everyone needs to quit turning their nose up at the apocalypse and thinking they'll escape it somehow.”

This may be the most important article you ever read. The OIL AGE IS ENDING. Not in one hundred years, not fifty but IN 5 YEARS!


[link to www.feasta.org]

Oil can only be useful as an energy source if the energy contained in the product (ie: transport fuel) is greater than the energy required to extract, refine and deliver the fuel to the end user.
Bones Tell Everything



If you electrolyse water, the hydrogen gas produced (when mixed with air and ignited), will explode with a bang (be careful doing this at home!). The hydrogen contained in the world’s water is an enormous potential energy source and contains infinitely more energy (as hydrogen) than humans could ever need. The problem is that it takes far more energy to produce a given amount of hydrogen from water than is available by combusting it.

Oil is rapidly going the same way. Only a small proportion of what remains of conventional oil resources can provide an energy surplus for use as a fuel. All the other types of oil require more energy to produce and deliver as fuel to the end user (taking into account the whole oil production chain), than is contained in the fuel itself.
What people do not realise is that it takes oil to extract, refine, produce and deliver oil to the end user.

The Hills Group calculates that in 2012, the average energy required by the oil production chain had risen so much that it was then equal to the energy contained in the oil delivered to the economy. In other words “In 2012 the oil industry production chain in total used 50% of all the energy contained in the oil delivered to the consumer”. This is trending rapidly to reach 100% early in the next decade.

At this point – no matter how much oil is left (a lot) and in whatever form (many), oil will be of no use as an energy source for transport fuels, since it will on average require more energy to extract, refine and deliver to the end-user, than the oil itself contains.
The price of oil cannot exceed the value of the economic activity generated from the amount of energy available to end-users per barrel. Dr Louis Arnoux explains this as follows:
“In 1900 the Global Industrial World received 61% of the gross energy in a barrel of oil. In 2016 this is down to 7%."

The global industrial world is being forced to contract because it is being starved of net energy from oil” (Louis Arnoux 2016).
This is reflected in the slowing down of global economic growth and the huge increase in total global debt.


In 2012 the Global Oil Industry on average began to use more energy per barrel in its own processes (from oil exploration to transport fuel deliveries
Net Oil Energy available to the economy after 2022 will have declined to ZERO
at the petrol stations) than what it delivers NET to the Global Economy (Dr Louis Arnoux 2016).

Within 5 years the global oil industry will be in all sorts of trouble, and oil dependent countries will have collapsed - with very serious consequences for global economy and society.

Think of the Global Economy as the Titanic The Captain and the owners (politicians, economists, corporate leaders) were warned many times (Limits to Growth 1973, Peak Oil, etc) that the course chosen (endless growth) would take the ship into dangerous waters (end of economic growth), but the stakes were high; reputations and money were at stake (corporate profits, political power); so - carry on regardless - full-steam ahead. The Titanic has now collided with the iceberg and is mortally holed; but still it carries on steaming with all the lights on. People on the deck (us) are still partying (taking on debt at fantastic rates) unaware of what is going on below decks; but water (thermodynamic depletion of oil energy, exponential unsustainable debt) is coming in fast.


Dr Louis Arnoux Aug 2016 "The problem of eroding energy profitability is hard to deal with partly because the decline is happening so fast. If we had a couple of decades to prepare for falling thermodynamic efficiency, there are things we could do to soften the blow. That’s what the peak oil discussion was all about: It was an effort to warn society ahead of time. Once the dynamic of declining energy profitability really gets rolling, adaptation becomes much more difficult. Oil no longer provides as much of a stimulus to the economy, which just can’t grow as it did before, and this in turn sets in motion a self-reinforcing feedback loop of stagnating or falling labour productivity, falling wages, falling consumption, reduced ability to re-pay debt, failure to invest in future energy productivity, falling energy supplies, falling tax revenues, and so on.

How long can debt continue to substitute for energy before the next traumatic phase of this feedback process begins in earnest? That’s anybody’s guess, but our window for action is likely months or years, not decades". The combination of a global economy whose growth is maintained only by exponentially increasing amounts of debt (that can never be repaid) and rapidly declining net oil energy is leading us unavoidably to a systemic collapse of the economic/energy system within the next five years.

“That will have us wondering why we allowed ourselves to sleepwalk through the last few years.”
“The above consideration of the end point when, in the near future, oil has no residual value enables us to understand the present situation. THG’s work enables us to estimate that in 1900, per average barrel, some 61% net energy reached the GIW. In 2016 it was 7% only. It is obvious that it is not possible to generate the same amount of economic activity on 7% as it was in 1900 on 61%.

In other words the GIW is rapidly trending towards the above end point when no economic activity can be generated within the GIW based on oil and the value of a barrel is nil.




Maybe it will come in 5, 10 or 15 years, but it is coming. Everyone says it is coming except the fantasy abiotic crowd. The end of oil as a source of energy for cars, trucks, farm tractors, boats, planes,
heating, etc will be APOCALYPTIC. It could wipe out billions of people. The first world will not escape it. It could wipe out most of the people in the USA. How do you run the countries food distribution without gas or diesel fuel. How do the diesel trains run or the planes or ships?
Nothing will be the same.

The truth is this concept of running out of oil energy is SO MIND BOGGLING THAT PEOPLE CANNOT BELIEVE IT. People think all that you will have to do is pay more money to get more oil.
But if it takes all the energy in a barrel of oil to produce a barrel of oil then no money can solve the problem.

This is Mega Doom.
The sun is setting fast on our town…….Iris Dement [link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to energyskeptic.com]
The #4 problem is that our civilization is a House of Cards — it requires so many material resources, so much energy, and so many kinds of technical knowledge — that any missing pieces and the house can’t be rebuilt. Whatever poorer quality replication (simpler microchips, gravel roads) is attempted in the future won’t ascend nearly as high and will be more prone to collapsing again. Liebig’s Law ensures that the next societies will never be able to reach the level of civilization we have now.
Liebig’s Law. A shortage of anything means little if anything can be rebuilt, or rebuilt extensively. After the first collapse, all of the infrastructure will need replacing. To go back to trying to get the remaining remote oil, coal, and natural gas for the energy to do this requires too many components to list. You’d need to rebuild roads, bridges, mining equipment. A shortage of anything — knowledge, technology, steel, cement, iron, tools, microchips, container ships, trucks, food, water, plastics would prevent going back to the technology enabled by fossil fuels.
Look at how many believe in endless growth forever (Capitalism), astrology, angels, deny climate change, and so on. Scientific literacy is so low, and the pressure to always be positive and techno-optimistic so high, that telling the truth to enable people to properly prepare for the future might not make any difference, people believe what they want to believe.
No wonder world leaders deny peak oil. Stability would vanish in an instant and bring on a permanent crash much sooner if world leaders acknowledged the energy crisis and lack of alternatives to replace fossil fuels.
Alice Friedemann
 
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