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Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history

 
TheToolMan
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06/26/2017 03:19 PM
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Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
An overlapping confluence of three different technological waves — the smartphone, the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence — have created the conditions for a technological disruption so profound it’s going to change almost everything about the way we move in modern society.

Where is this all going?
Within a few years, electric vehicles are going to be cheaper, more durable and more reliable than petrol powered cars, autonomy will be good enough that you don’t need human drivers and everyone will be able to hail a car on their phone (or their voice-activated Alexa spectacles). The cost of taking a car trip will be cheaper than getting a coffee, which means it will be accessible to everyone. Overnight, we’ll see a mass defection to mobility as a service.

This is the real kicker: we don’t have to wait for people to get rid of their old cars; they simply walk out their front door one morning and decide they would prefer to hail an autonomous, electric vehicle. Given a choice, people will select the cheaper option. And that option will not include ownership. The combustion vehicle won’t disappear gradually — it’ll happen in the space of a year or two. We are talking about the kind of disruption in urban mobility that we haven’t seen in 100 years happening in a matter of months.

Recent studies from Bloomberg, the London School of Economics and Stanford University have all pegged the date of the confluence of these three technological waves at around 2020 or 2021.

[link to medium.com (secure)]

ttmower

Last Edited by TheToolMan on 06/26/2017 05:53 PM
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The Deplorable Nicomachus

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06/26/2017 03:21 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
bsflagbsflagbsflag

Let's take that bet. Bloomturd says no more internal combustion cars by the year 2022. I say, we will see more cars than ever.
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Flying Elvii

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06/26/2017 03:24 PM

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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Bullschit.... Not in America, they won't. Too much potential liability.

Hell, after what happened last night, None but the most expensive super cars will have airbags by next year.

Last Edited by Flying Elvii on 06/26/2017 03:25 PM
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 03:30 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
"not include ownership"

spock


seems plausible
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 03:34 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
I think people would still rather have their own personal car rather than barf cab on a saturday night.
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 03:34 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
I love my &#8202 V8 &#8202 and you &#8202 will never &#8202 take it from me.
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 03:35 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Hell no! I ain't getting rid of my V6 pickup truck!

huffy
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06/26/2017 03:36 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Gas prices will soon be under a dollar. Maybe it's V12 time.
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06/26/2017 03:38 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
If we are talking about the end of private cars because of AI driving the car, is no way this will ever work in a rural or even suburban area. Are say two million people who work in a megacity but live in the suburbs all going to hail an automous car in the morning and be picked up and delivered by it on time, regardless of rain, snow or whatever? And get home the same way, on time? Just think about the logistics involed, this doesn't make any sense at all. Only if you live in a central urban area and then how is it any better than hailing a cab? The most this will do is put cab drivers out of business because even if the car is self-driving, most people will at least need to lease if not own their own vehicle just as they do now. It doesn't fundamentally change the economics of the automobile industry.
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06/26/2017 03:39 PM

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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
We don't even have proper Internet coverage nationwide yet and now we are expected to believe there will be a car revolution... yeah. Nope.
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06/26/2017 03:48 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
GOOD
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06/26/2017 04:00 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
I got four of them.
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06/26/2017 04:07 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
An overlapping confluence of three different technological waves
 Quoting: TheToolMan


Bullshit, though I guess you are trolling.

Electric cars will require a huge investment in charging infrastructure - cabling and electrical capacity.

To charge an electric car at reasonable speed requires 200 Amps for 30 - 60 minutes. This will put a huge strain on the power grid. Battery technology is still very expensive and has too little capacity. The laws of physics still requires a certain amount of stored energy to propel a car at a decent speed. A basic battery cars will always be very expensive compared to a basic petrol car.

It is more likely that cheap petrol driven community pool cars will become a reality than self driving electric vehicles.

The automotive industry (in general) and housing are probably the only thing left that is holding our crumbling economy together.

Believe what you want, but driverless vehicles are never going to happen any time soon. The collapse of the global economy and breakdown of society will happen long before autonomous electric vehicles become the norm.
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 04:14 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
I think people would still rather have their own personal car rather than barf cab on a saturday night.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74544816


I know right... I'm not sitting in a car with some previous freaks butt crust
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 04:22 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Maybe in the large cities aka DUMBFUCKISTAN!
Anonymous Coward
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06/26/2017 04:37 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
And their putting this out to happen in the next three to five years? Ain't gonna happen.

Even if it was technically feasible, how is liability going to work out. Say vehicle hits pedestrian, vehicle crashes, injuries inside said vehicles, etc. I'd say the insurance companies have no clue on how to insure the fleets of vehicles, not to mention cost. And that leads to this question: who pays for this "wonderful" tech? The money has to come from somewhere for maintenance, fleet cost, electrical use, cleaning, etc. And how/how much will these fleets be taxed by municipalities?

And what's to keep some homeless dude from riding them around 24/7? Or people living in them? Then there's the privacy aspects of being tracked wherever you go. What happens during major power outages?

It's a nice pipe dream of science fiction, but as with most things Utopian in nature, it always collides with reality.
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Who are these idiots who are allegedly ok with giving up driving? I've never met one.
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06/26/2017 04:52 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Probably written by a New York City dweller where distances are short, demand throughout the day is consistent, and the vehicle picking you up doesn't have to drive 20 miles just to pick you up so it can then take you 30 miles in another direction out to where nobody needs that transportation vehicle for at least a few hours, if not a couple of days.

OH ... and what about when the college football game is over with at some Big 10 or SEC school and 100,000 simultaneous want to go home ... AT EXACTLY THE SAME TIME!!, some 150 miles home!! "Surge Demand" events will overwhelm any attempt to make this work in such a short time frame to say nothing of how long (many years of production) it takes to manufacture the number of vehicles they would need or the electricity needed to charge those vehicles.
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Probably written by a New York City dweller where distances are short, demand throughout the day is consistent, and the vehicle picking you up doesn't have to drive 20 miles just to pick you up so it can then take you 30 miles in another direction out to where nobody needs that transportation vehicle for at least a few hours, if not a couple of days.

OH ... and what about when the college football game is over with at some Big 10 or SEC school and 100,000 simultaneous want to go home ... AT EXACTLY THE SAME TIME!!, some 150 miles home!! "Surge Demand" events will overwhelm any attempt to make this work in such a short time frame to say nothing of how long (many years of production) it takes to manufacture the number of vehicles they would need or the electricity needed to charge those vehicles.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72052582


Yep that Georgia Florida game would put a bind in that theory!
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
cars will become roombas?
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CAstro hik

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06/26/2017 05:19 PM

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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
high schools stopped providing drivers ed to students, so most hs Jrs and Srs don't have a license now.

How you going to get places? Parents drive them or they call a Lyft or Uber..

This is the plan, but still many will continue to drive...

How can an electrician or carpenter get to a customer's house with their tools? They must drive a van or a truck...

But public transportation will increase, it seems inevitable, however there will still be privately owned vehicles and not just for the tradesmen to carry tools, it's not going to be across the board...

Last Edited by CAstro hik on 06/26/2017 05:20 PM
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06/26/2017 05:31 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
high schools stopped providing drivers ed to students, so most hs Jrs and Srs don't have a license now.

How you going to get places? Parents drive them or they call a Lyft or Uber..

This is the plan, but still many will continue to drive...

How can an electrician or carpenter get to a customer's house with their tools? They must drive a van or a truck...

But public transportation will increase, it seems inevitable, however there will still be privately owned vehicles and not just for the tradesmen to carry tools, it's not going to be across the board...
 Quoting: CAstro hik


Driver's Ed isn't a requirement unless you want to get your license before you're 18. Anyone that is 18 can go in and pass the written and driving tests and get their licenses. They'll just have more expensive insurance until they take defensive driving.
TheToolMan  (OP)

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06/26/2017 05:49 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
Cars, Trucks, Tractors, etc. are becoming so expensive that OWNING a car doesn't make sense. This is the opportunity to turn you into a RENTER for life.
"My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance."
hershy

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06/26/2017 05:54 PM
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
They will need less people for this to work,depopulation works well less people less congested roads.
hershy
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
I think it's plausible but will take decades. The younger generation especially. With the mountains of debt many of them have, home ownership and car ownership are difficult. The times they are a changin'.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Carmageddon is Coming! We’re on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption in transport history
I thought this was about the end of cars.

[link to www.feasta.org]

Oil can only be useful as an energy source if the energy contained in the product (ie: transport fuel) is greater than the energy required to extract, refine and deliver the fuel to the end user.




Without oil there is no transportation of food,products,etc. Without oil there is no energy for modern agriculture.

Oil becomes useless when it takes more energy to get it then it produces. Estimates here are 35 to 53 years. But if the world demand increases which it is that will shorten the time.

Some quotes from different sources:

According to calculations by Gilbert Masters, Stanford Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Emeritus, current oil supplies in all nations combined would last the world for only about 41 years.
---------------------
While the world as BP sees it might just hold 53.3 years' worth of oil, that certainly does not mean we'll run out of oil anytime soon.
---------------------------------
As the Saudi Oil Minister said in the 1970s, “The Stone Age didn’t end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil.”
-------------------------------------------
Clearly fossil fuel reserves are finite - it's only a matter of when they run out - not if. Globally - every year we currently consume the equivalent of over 11 billion tonnes of oil in fossil fuels. Crude oil reserves are vanishing at the rate of 4 billion tonnes a year1 – if we carry on at this rate without any increase for our growing population or aspirations, our known oil deposits will be gone by 2052.
-------------------------------





GLP