This is all bound for the Western Strategic Direction. They could easily roll over the Baltics and penetrate Poland as far as the Vistula, possibly besieging Warsaw and Gdansk. If it actually comes to war, there will be other theaters of course.

The 8th Guards Army, the 58th Army, the 22nd Army Corp in Crimea and the DNR Corp and LNR Corp are all still available in the Southern Direction. They could sweep over southern Ukraine and threaten Romania.

The 2nd Guards Army, the 41st Army and the 5 western heavy divisions of the National Guard constitute the strategic reserve and possible occupation forces.

All up I estimate Russia can commit about 500,000 men to a war against NATO.