Anonymous Coward User ID: 74799428 United States 11/13/2017 11:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | UBS Makes A Striking Discovery: Ex-Energy, US GDP Growth Is The Slowest Since 2010 Less than 50%: Message 1: The 2017 global growth acceleration was largely (70%) a commodity bounce. This applies even to the US which was 20% of the global growth improvement but, as the 1st chart below shows, it was entirely energy investment. Once you strip that out 'underlying' growth is only 1% or so (ex inventories) - the slowest since 2010 - and a significant amount of rotation now needs to take place from energy to non-energy investment just to sustain the current growth pace. The surveys suggest that is possible but the surveys have also consistently overstated growth so far. As Kapteyn adds, due to "skepticism about that rotation is why we are about 20bp below consensus for US growth next year." It also means that contrary to conventional wisdom, the US consumer has not only not turned the corner, but continues to retrench and with the personal savings rate plunging to 10 years lows, there is little hope that personal consumption expenditures will be a significant driver of US growth for the foreseeable future. [ link to www.zerohedge.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 64000823 United States 11/13/2017 11:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: UBS Makes A Striking Discovery: Ex-Energy, US GDP Growth Is The Slowest Since 2010 I'm not so sure. Shit is being built everywhere.
Zero hedge sucks. It's fear porn. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 74799428 United States 11/13/2017 11:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: UBS Makes A Striking Discovery: Ex-Energy, US GDP Growth Is The Slowest Since 2010 I'm not so sure. Shit is being built everywhere.
Zero hedge sucks. It's fear porn.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 64000823 Building activity probably varies depending on where you're located. Hard to argue with the overall conclusions based on the raw data. Hope he's wrong. |
jkm1864
User ID: 74933864 United States 11/13/2017 11:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: UBS Makes A Striking Discovery: Ex-Energy, US GDP Growth Is The Slowest Since 2010 I'm in the oilfield and I sure as hell don't see the money. Hell maybe We hit rock bottom and things improved a bit but like usual the prosperity missed Me. Pussy Grabber Extraordinaire |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 74842310 Canada 11/13/2017 12:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: UBS Makes A Striking Discovery: Ex-Energy, US GDP Growth Is The Slowest Since 2010 I'm in the oilfield and I sure as hell don't see the money. Hell maybe We hit rock bottom and things improved a bit but like usual the prosperity missed Me.
Quoting: jkm1864 So it's worse for you than what the article suggests? |