Volcanic Eruptions Increasing | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 221686 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 96486 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Using the Smithsonian Volcano Research database and sampling every five years the following trend for eruptions is shown for the past 150 years. 2005 68 2000 67 1995 60 1990 53 1985 52 1980 65 1975 50 1970 54 1965 53 1960 57 1955 46 1950 48 1945 36 1940 45 1935 42 1930 37 1925 42 1920 37 1915 34 1910 41 1905 40 1900 34 1895 32 1890 38 1885 39 1880 30 1875 24 1870 24 1865 32 1860 32 1855 23 |
Zodeva User ID: 221309 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: By Jupiter Ya know? It's just a thang. Like anything else in life, shit happens. When it comes to cataclysmic events, you won't know it hits you, until it does. |
chacao User ID: 217164 ![]() 04/12/2007 07:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
killdamon User ID: 221196 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:14 AM ![]() Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes they are. there are a good 150 currently erupting. the red triangles are volcanos . [link to visz.rsoe.hu] . Just passing thru. OG id 126286 NasTraDooMis |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 171724 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Using the Smithsonian Volcano Research database and sampling every five years the following trend for eruptions is shown for the past 150 years. Quoting: By Jupiter2005 68 2000 67 1995 60 1990 53 1985 52 1980 65 1975 50 1970 54 1965 53 1960 57 1955 46 1950 48 1945 36 1940 45 1935 42 1930 37 1925 42 1920 37 1915 34 1910 41 1905 40 1900 34 1895 32 1890 38 1885 39 1880 30 1875 24 1870 24 1865 32 1860 32 1855 23 Z-value, Yr, Number 2.002463448 2005 68 1.92215767 2000 67 1.360017219 1995 60 0.797876769 1990 53 0.71757099 1985 52 1.761546112 1980 65 0.556959433 1975 50 0.878182547 1970 54 0.797876769 1965 53 1.119099883 1960 57 0.235736318 1955 46 0.396347875 1950 48 -0.567321469 1945 36 0.155430539 1940 45 -0.085486797 1935 42 -0.48701569 1930 37 -0.085486797 1925 42 -0.48701569 1920 37 -0.727933026 1915 34 -0.165792575 1910 41 -0.246098354 1905 40 -0.727933026 1900 34 -0.888544583 1895 32 -0.406709911 1890 38 -0.326404133 1885 39 -1.04915614 1880 30 -1.530990812 1875 24 -1.530990812 1870 24 -0.888544583 1865 32 -0.888544583 1860 32 -1.611296591 1855 23 Year 2005 is statistically significantly different, p<.05 Trend Analysis: Yr, Number 2035 69.54314516 2030 68.28225806 2025 67.02137097 2020 65.76048387 2015 64.49959677 2010 63.23870968 Assuming linear growth; if logistic growth then future years will see much higher predictions. If we use the last 20 years for trend, then: Yr, Number 2035 96.8 2030 92.2 2025 87.6 2020 83 2015 78.4 2010 73.8 If between 150 year trend and last 20 year trend, then: Yr, Number 2035 between 70 and 97 volcano eruptions 2030 between 68 and 92 volcano eruptions 2025 between 67 and 88 volcano eruptions 2020 between 66 and 84 volcano eruptions 2015 between 64 and 78 volcano eruptions 2010 between 63 and 74 volcano eruptions All trends point to increased vulcanism in the next 30 years. Year 2005 eruption frequency is statistically aberrant from the past 150 years, p < .05 Something is up... |
edgar celadus nli User ID: 222025 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 221027 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes they are. there are a good 150 currently erupting. the red triangles are volcanos . [link to visz.rsoe.hu] . Quoting: killdamonThere are not 150 currently erupting. There are maybe 150 showing signs of activity but not all are erupting. As for using every 5 year sampling, that's poor statistical analysis. |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes they are. there are a good 150 currently erupting. the red triangles are volcanos . [link to visz.rsoe.hu] . Quoting: killdamonThanks for the map. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 222150 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Zodeva User ID: 221309 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:46 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 08:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Solomon Islands quake, volcanic? "A visiting geologist from New Zealand, Garth MacIntyre, 49, said he believed a deep rumbling in the sea was caused by pressure between tectonic plates and volcanic activity, either an underwater volcano or a vent where magma was rising to the surface. Villagers have found large amounts of newly formed pumice - volcanic rock - on the shore." [link to www.stuff.co.nz] |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 09:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 214292 ![]() 04/12/2007 09:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
edgar celadus User ID: 222025 ![]() 04/12/2007 09:38 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Kinda cool Quoting: Anonymous Coward 214292Yeah Kinda cool but a trick never the less. Look up Chris Angel on You Tube he shows you how this is done. Actually the mystery of David Blaine's levitation effect has never been authenticated nor solved still today. Chris angel on the other hand is much different and is just like any other magician looking for recognition with his artificial misdirection techniques. The balducci effect where you raise one foot up in the air has no relation whatsoever to some of the stunts blaine performed. people think they have the answer, but they're ignorant to realize they don't. |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 09:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Trend Analysis: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 171724Yr, Number 2035 69.54314516 2030 68.28225806 2025 67.02137097 2020 65.76048387 2015 64.49959677 2010 63.23870968 Assuming linear growth; if logistic growth then future years will see much higher predictions. If we use the last 20 years for trend, then: Yr, Number 2035 96.8 2030 92.2 2025 87.6 2020 83 2015 78.4 2010 73.8 If between 150 year trend and last 20 year trend, then: Yr, Number 2035 between 70 and 97 volcano eruptions 2030 between 68 and 92 volcano eruptions 2025 between 67 and 88 volcano eruptions 2020 between 66 and 84 volcano eruptions 2015 between 64 and 78 volcano eruptions 2010 between 63 and 74 volcano eruptions All trends point to increased vulcanism in the next 30 years. Year 2005 eruption frequency is statistically aberrant from the past 150 years, p < .05 Something is up... Perhaps the progression is not linear. If one looks at the eruption totals for the years 1881, 1882, 1883, the respective totals are 26, 24, 44. 1883 being the year Krakatua erupted. This may tie in with the Transit of Venus. Wikipedia Quote "Transits of Venus are among the rarest of predictable astronomical phenomena and currently occur in a pattern that repeats every 243 years, with pairs of transits eight years apart separated by long gaps of 121.5 years and 105.5 years. Before 2004, the last pair of transits were in December 1874 and December 1882. The first of a pair of transits of Venus in the beginning of the 21st century took place on June 8, 2004 (see Transit of Venus, 2004) and the next will be on June 6, 2012 (see Transit of Venus, 2012)." My suggestion is that if the 2012 transit, second in the pair, boosts eruptions as occured after 1882 transit we might see a steep increase in activity. |
Zodeva User ID: 221309 ![]() 04/12/2007 09:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
By Jupiter (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 09:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 164778 ![]() 04/12/2007 02:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |