Eruption Happening NOW Big Island Hawaii - Massive Flooding Ongoing From Lane

Live update

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Hawaii Tracker Nightly Update - 9:10pm 8/13/2018
Joint Post with Sarah Wilkinson

"The new beach at Pohoiki has gained more sand overnight, and sand also appears to be gathering on the First Bay reef and along the adjacent coast. The sand deposits are likely to undergo many changes as the ocean moves the sand around the area. The sand could get all washed out permanently, or it might continue to deposit in First Bay, or it could even deposit and wash out in seasonal cycles.

Activity at Fissure 8 remains paused/in a lull. Lava can only be seen at the bottom of the 130-foot pit in the vent of the cinder cone, in what resembles a small puddle. There is some glow coming from the lava puddle which can faintly be seen at night in Leilani Estates. There are currently no signs suggesting the eruption is resuming at this time. Earthquake activity was minimal again today, and there has not been a collapse event at Kilauea Summit in the past 11 days. No significant changes in ground tilt or inflation have been seen since August 2nd; it is unknown where lava from the lower magma chamber is currently being stored. If Fissure 8 were to reactivate, there would be observable precursors; we will be monitoring for signs of inflation, more seismic activity, increased SO2 emissions, and increased glow from Fissure 8..."

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I can tell you this for sure, I would not care to be anywhere on the Pacific Ocean! If the slump destabilizes and goes by itself, it creates a Tsunami, because it's displacing of water. However, IF it got hit and taken out by an already created Tsunami, would there be the same reaction? Somehow I don't think so, as the Cascadia generated tsunami wave would pull the slump out with it when it receded, so would it be displacing water in the same way, as it would from a standing still situation? The water would already be moving with force. Interesting question.

Dropping a thread bump off.



Bright Blessings

Des

Dutch pointed out that the last time USGS took measurements and posted on their site of SO2 levels was July 19, --- video was made this past weekend, I think, August 12, so may have updated it by now. One would certainly hope so!

Okies dear. I'll take a look and get a thread going. :) And I beg to differ on your level of usefulness. You've been a major contributor on this thread.

A 2.2 at 33km depth about 5 minutes ago or so.

Interesting, so another source with a similar theory...I wonder how independent they are from one another.

I have a new thread started on the topic. I will see if I can find that article.

WT Ever Living F?! These B*st*rds did it again! Took the feed from 4 to 5

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Aholes.

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Look at this!!!!! GAH! Doesn't matter...it's clear there's movement on the slump from this before they jacked with the output levels.

You're far to kind, re comments in previous post to me but I thank you.
On this subject...good on you for taking screenshots. I've started taking screenshots first thing when I get online, before I refresh the page from the night before(my phone keeps chastising me, says that I haven't rebooted it in over 40 days, oops LOL) but at least that way I can see what they changed overnight, instead of having to guess.

There was a 2.1 at 32km depth, shortly after the above quake & another 2.1 about 40 minutes ago.

I'm sure USGS has all kinds of info we don't know about.

The fact that they keep changing the way the data is shown is suspect. Kudos to you guys for staying on top of it!

Agreed. They don't want us to be able to chart ahead of time.

Had a 1.8 about an hour ago. The Kilauea tilt meter is continuing to show an upward trend & Puuoo is showing a downward trend.

One man's analysis of the situation.

"I spoke with my volcanologist senior staff at HVO friend who has been working on the volcano since early 70’s.
Here is his takes and a little of mine thrown in as well on where we stand.
We both feel at this point it seems as if the flow is mostly pau (finished). Not only is the flow pretty much dead, but the earthquakes have stopped, the ground cracking has stopped (aka land deformation is not being seen), steam and gases are down, and the summit seems to be settling out.
He told me that if we were to see signs of reawakening of Pele that it would show in the earthquakes, deformation, new cracks, more gases and steam, and the tilt reading would start to move again. We see none of that. That’s a great sign! There has been big debates going on at HVO about if this Kilauea eruption is somewhat normal flow rates or extremely rare on the LERZ. My friend feels this was the largest flow in over 200 years and he thinks it was as big as any flows in the last 500 years. So being this flow was mostly record breaking, seeing it stop now would make sense. He feels most of the upper summit magma reservoir was drained. He also spoke about how quickly the eruption ended is fairly typical. Maybe this is where the word pau comes from, once the pressure is gone it ends pretty quickly...
Let’s talk history of Kilauea for a moment. The 1790 eruption was a huge explosive cycle leaving the summit a deep hole like it is now. When the summit refilled after LERZ eruption, it filled in a giant lava lake that was way bigger than one we saw from 2008-2018. It was a real treat for all the tourist to see. That lava lake lasted over 100 years until 1924 when it drained quickly. After the 1924 event the lava did not return to the summit until 1926. At that point for the next 30 years, there were only minor summit eruptions filling in the bottom of the crater as Kilauea was very quiet all in all, will we get a 30 year chill period too? Each eruption kept adding elevation to the creator floor, layer after layer. So each eruption over the next 94 years till May of 2018, had to get bigger than the last to break through. In mid to late April I witnessed the summit lava lake spill over its banks and little did I realize the lava had pushed to its highest point since 1924 event. This pressure finally broke the underground dike which started this entire event. It’s weird to think that when both ponds (pu’u’o’o as well) both perched their ponds and overflowed, that was the 100 year high in lava up-dwelling. So in a sense it took 94 years to fill the reservoirs to that height. So the input rate was still filling up the reservoirs even with pu’u’o’o flow rate draining during those 35 years. The fissure 8 flow rate was 30 times the pu’u’o’o rate as it drained the two lava lakes. Now the reservoirs are mostly empty again, the summit dropped over 1000 feet and now its only a matter of time before the summit reservoir starts to refill again.

If the magma comes in fast, my volcanologist says we will see the lava lake refill again and it will be a sight to see, we may see lava fountains and other cool lava features for all to see like in the 1800’s. There could still be some explosions as the water table is being heated by the lava, but the more lava in the system will douse the water with lava holding it back and lava wins out and less explosive. If the magma comes in slowly then it could spell the start of an explosive phase at the summit. According to Don Swanson at HVO (not my friend I’m speaking of) the volcano is in this explosive phase 60% of the time over the last 1000 years from 1500ish to 1800ish in its last phase. So when the magma chamber is low and trickling in, the mountain gets very explosive, but also few surface lava flows. When the lava is high and coming up solid, then we get these long lava periods with lots of surfaces flows. So what’s coming now? Will we get a explosive summit with low flow rates or will the lava eruptions at summits cause a lava lake to form and fountains without much explosive activity..."

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Last Edited by Paranoiaaaaa on 08/14/2018 08:32 PM

Thanks for continuing info everyone

Many thanks!

I second the thanks.

So, you think the hilina slump threat is on hold for now? Could a slow lava refill with explosions set it off, you think?

Another thoughtful post by the same man, Scott Malis.

"If there was magma building up pressure and set to come down to fissure 8, we would see evidence of that upline, and we don’t. And if we did start to see that, we would see earthquakes, tilt changes, land deformation, and heat and cracking and increased gas emissions, we see none of those things!
So now the question comes will fissure 8 be the new pu’u’o’o and go to slow flows but long and steady for years to come. And for me the answer again is doubtful. And here is why. For one pu’u’o’o had a sizable summit lava lake and pu’u’o’o had another 1100ft deep lava lake adding pressure to the system which made for lava being pushed out. Again it may have seemed subtle, but keep in mind over the last 35 years the magma chambers were at the high part of the cycle in lava levels within the Kīlauea system. At this point the magma chambers are at a low spot again, there is not much pressure from two drained lava lakes vs pu’u’o’o which had pressure from above. Remember volcanoes only erupt from pressure. Without pressure the magma just wants to stay inside the mountain. If the upper magma reservoir is drained, then it will take some time to refill enough to build pressure again. It’s kind of having to start all over again building up pressure. On a volcano like this the pressure comes from gases and gravity feed from above. At this point the gases are diminishing, and there appears to very little left in the tank above. So it looks like it will take some time to rebuild pressure and volume of magma again.
I would also like to address the HVO referencing the 1955 flow breaks of 6/15 days, and why this is different. In 1955 those breaks were the pause of the eruption moving uprift going from one vent to another. The earthquakes never stopped, their evidence of magma on the move, and it erupted in a new spot. In the 1969-1974 Mauna Ulu eruption it did have a 3.5 month pause, and let’s discuss that. At Mauna Ulu there was a lava lake, the lake in 1971 dropped its lava and just like pu’u’o’o it released lava down rift a few miles, had small eruptions, and then 3.5 months later the lava lake returned and the eruption ended below. The entire time there always still a semi full summit magma chamber adding pressure..."

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Still some ocean entry going.

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HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY STATUS REPORT
U.S. Geological Survey
Tuesday, August 14, 2018, 9:31 AM HST (Tuesday, August 14, 2018, 19:31 UTC)

"- Resupply of magma could lead to the reactivation of fissures other than fissure 8, or the opening of entirely new fissures along the ERZ, potentially leading to new areas being inundated by lava.

- The new lava flow field in the LERZ includes large areas of still-hot, rugged, and unstable lava surfaces that are subject to collapse.

- Sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas emissions have greatly decreased from LERZ vents, but high levels of SO2 may persist in downwind areas.

- Tephra (fragments of glassy lava) have accumulated to thicknesses of more than several feet near fissure 8. This material breaks down over time into small, glassy particles that can be blown on the wind and create an eye, respiratory, and skin irritant. Disturbing the tephra by sweeping, shoveling, or driving over it will break the fragile pieces into a glassy dust. The tephra can also conceal underlying hazards such as ground cracks, holes, and debris from destroyed structures.

- The LERZ ocean entry is minimally active at this time, but continued laze and lava delta collapses remain a concern. Hydrovolcanic explosions are much less of a concern now, as they require high eruption rates with lava entering the ocean, but they may still occur.

- At the summit, additional earthquakes, rockfalls, and ground cracking can occur with no warning. Steep crater walls destabilized by months of earthquakes could be prone to collapse for weeks or months to come, even without further ground shaking..."

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I sure hope Orical Cookie comes back. She closed the glp account last night and said good by over a conflict. It was sad. Over 60 and has been on glp for 18 years. I hope Trinity can clear things up. We have lost too many long timers. Breaks my heart.

I agree. She's done some amazing work & the site will be diminished by losing her & she will be missed, by many. She was attacked for referencing the wrong comet, even though in the post she stated that she might not be speaking about the same comet. I don't want to argue, have any problems or detract from the thread so I won't say another word on the subject.

There were 5 quakes, during a o hour span, overnight, all on the island(as opposed to being offshore, as does happen periodically), one at 1.7 & the rest 2.1-2.3.
Kilauea is on the second day of a stair-step upward trend then plateau, then back to an upward trend pattern, which time will tell if it continues or not. Puuoo is still showing an overall downward trend on the tilt meter, with periodic plateaus & short term reversals to upward, followed by a return downward. It bears mentioning that this would likely be hard to distinguish, had the sensitivity not been increased on the monitors/tilt meters, as these are not major changes, as were seen during the more active times of the event.

WHAT?! Noooo. Aw man :( Oracle was awesome!