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Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12

 
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
BUMP for replies...and recent news.
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Ebola "re-emerges" in Congo

[link to www.euronews.com]

Democratic Republic of Congo has recorded its first confirmed case of Ebola in over a week, the health ministry said on Thursday, although medics say they have made significant progress in their efforts to contain the disease.

The patient, a known contact of someone who is believed to have died from Ebola on May 20, was confirmed positive on Wednesday for the hemorrhagic fever in the rural community of Iboko, the ministry said in a daily report.
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Keep in mind, that some of the outbreaks infected large amount of pigs. Which as mammals they have more similar respiratory tracts to use and they develop the virus in a rather close manner to humans.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67460490


Its not quite like that it is more like a genetic mutation that allows it to go to mammals, once it is in one mammal all mammals can get it.
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Feistylorax

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Keep in mind, that some of the outbreaks infected large amount of pigs. Which as mammals they have more similar respiratory tracts to use and they develop the virus in a rather close manner to humans.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67460490


Its not quite like that it is more like a genetic mutation that allows it to go to mammals, once it is in one mammal all mammals can get it.
 Quoting: Feistylorax


It's like it picks up a new gene altogether, and they can test for it. There is a gene for reptiles and for birds as well.
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Feistylorax

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Nawty, Feisty, I want to hear from you two on this...Please respond with comments when you get back...Article on common testing methods for the virus and potential for false positive results, even with genetic strains we are aware of yet alone variations from pre-existing strains....

[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

ELISA-based screening assays, although efficient, can yield high false positive and false negative rates compared with functional seroneutralization (SN) assays19. Thus, whenever possible, ELISA/Luminex-positive samples are confirmed by a SN assay. Although SN assays are considered a gold standard for seroprevalence studies19,20,21, follow-up confirmation with live virus SN assays is limited by the amount of sample available, and the requirement to work with live HNV in a high-containment facility (BSL-4). Consequently, in many prior studies only ELISA/Luminex-positive samples, and often only a small subset such as those with the highest binding activity, were confirmed with a biological or surrogate SN assay (reviewed in LF Wang et al.21; for example, AJ Peel et al.22). The latter is based on serum antibody competition of soluble receptor (sEphrinB2-Fc) binding to recombinant NiV-G or HeV-G conjugated to Luminex beads18. Although these procedures can guard against false positives, they do not address the loss of potential false negatives10,13,14.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67460490


Reading and noting

With a 3-4% sero positive rate in those who are handling fruit bats with no reported cases to the point where they didn't know it is in africa is concerning, what else are they freaking missing,

So it looks like in their testing they found a way to workaround the BSL 4 live virus specifications, Though I didn't see them finding a way to test how effective that system is for false negatives and positives in comparison.

My summary would be that I think this may make things a bit more complex. If we have that much crossover in them they would be able to switch and transfer genes moderately well. Cross over events aren't even able to be mapped out yet since most of the strain variants aren't in the system.

Not sure if that answers what you want, this article is pretty much a pointing out of how little they know about these viruses compared to what they need to know.

Edit* just realized that I had not finished the report, I will try to get back to finish it later, but I've a crying baby and 2 to feed lunch to so no promises.

It looks like they did do a test for effectiveness in a BSL4 so that previous statement was wrong.

Last Edited by Feistylorax on 06/08/2018 12:25 PM
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Thanks Feisty!

Appreciate the feedback...Definitely one to watch closely
NawtyBits  (OP)

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
h/t tetano

[link to www.africanews.com]

DR Congo reports first post-vaccination Ebola case


Democratic Republic of Congo has recorded its first confirmed case of Ebola in over a week, the health ministry said on Thursday, although medics say they have made significant progress in their efforts to contain the disease.

The patient, a known contact of someone who is believed to have died from Ebola on May 20, was confirmed positive on Wednesday for the haemorrhagic fever in the rural community of Iboko, the ministry said in a daily report.
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Since the launch of the vaccination on May 21, 2,064 people have been vaccinated, including 698 in Mbandaka, 498 in Bikoro, 838 in Iboko and 30 in Ingende.


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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
h/t shiloh


Nepal - Bird flu outbreak on 2 poultry farms in Kathmandu, tests pending on 2 symptomatic people - May 26, 2018
May 26th, 2018, 11:42 AM

Source: [link to thehimalayantimes.com (secure)]

Bird flu outbreak in Kathmandu
Published: May 26, 2018 9:10 am On: Kathmandu
Himalayan News Service

Kathmandu, May 25

H5N1 influenza virus, commonly known as bird flu, has been detected in two farms in the capital.

The virus was detected in farms belonging to Hira Tamang at Dharmasthali in Tarkeshwor Municipality and Shanti Tamang at Lambagar of the same municipality. After the bird flu was detected and confirmed in ducks, the authorities culled 5,451 ducks and 180 hens, besides destroying 3,720 eggs of ducks. Up to 250 kg feed was also destroyed. “We culled ducks and hens after ducks tested positive for bird flu,” said Dr Keshav Prasad Premy, joint secretary, Ministry of Agriculture, Land Management and Cooperatives.

According to the Chief of Epidemiology and Disease Control Division Dr Kedar Century, after the Directorate of Animal Health confirmed detection of bird flu it asked EDCD to send necessary manpower for assistance. “We sent our staff for investigation and they have collected throat swab of two people in the area who showed symptoms of bird flu,” added Dr Century
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Got an informative Nipah thread going here...hopefully more will chime in, although it being rather new to the scene for most, and not often highly reported about it seems people aren't quite sure what to think...

This thing is a nasty beast with probably the greatest pandemic threat out there besides flu pandemic. It's symptoms often inc!use cough and sneezing which can allow it to spread in the air as well as on surfaces. This is in contrast to Ebola, which does not typically produce respiratory symptoms. Case fatality rate between 60-90% and a relatively long incubation period similar to Ebola, topping out around 14-21 days on the higher end. Also, it is a particular type of RNA virus which is known to mutate often. It has multiple strain variations, further complicating what we know about it. It has shown clear ability to infect mammals, most notably pigs and humans, while demonstrating H2H transmission. Not sure if this is yet another created or alteted made virus, but for the reasons above it may as well be.c

Thread: Nipah Virus-The one you need to HEAR about!
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06/09/2018 10:47 AM

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Nawty, Feisty, I want to hear from you two on this...Please respond with comments when you get back...Article on common testing methods for the virus and potential for false positive results, even with genetic strains we are aware of yet alone variations from pre-existing strains....

[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

ELISA-based screening assays, although efficient, can yield high false positive and false negative rates compared with functional seroneutralization (SN) assays19. Thus, whenever possible, ELISA/Luminex-positive samples are confirmed by a SN assay. Although SN assays are considered a gold standard for seroprevalence studies19,20,21, follow-up confirmation with live virus SN assays is limited by the amount of sample available, and the requirement to work with live HNV in a high-containment facility (BSL-4). Consequently, in many prior studies only ELISA/Luminex-positive samples, and often only a small subset such as those with the highest binding activity, were confirmed with a biological or surrogate SN assay (reviewed in LF Wang et al.21; for example, AJ Peel et al.22). The latter is based on serum antibody competition of soluble receptor (sEphrinB2-Fc) binding to recombinant NiV-G or HeV-G conjugated to Luminex beads18. Although these procedures can guard against false positives, they do not address the loss of potential false negatives10,13,14.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67460490


ELISA MELISA tests are given for mold and other live toxins.
So yeah, they would have high false positives if they are looking for visuses.

What this test doesn't show is the Serous membrane. that's where the viruses cling, to the mucus membranes in the body, not the vital organs or blood.

Last Edited by MissCleo on 06/09/2018 10:49 AM
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Got an informative Nipah thread going here...hopefully more will chime in, although it being rather new to the scene for most, and not often highly reported about it seems people aren't quite sure what to think...

This thing is a nasty beast with probably the greatest pandemic threat out there besides flu pandemic. It's symptoms often inc!use cough and sneezing which can allow it to spread in the air as well as on surfaces. This is in contrast to Ebola, which does not typically produce respiratory symptoms. Case fatality rate between 60-90% and a relatively long incubation period similar to Ebola, topping out around 14-21 days on the higher end. Also, it is a particular type of RNA virus which is known to mutate often. It has multiple strain variations, further complicating what we know about it. It has shown clear ability to infect mammals, most notably pigs and humans, while demonstrating H2H transmission. Not sure if this is yet another created or alteted made virus, but for the reasons above it may as well be.c

Thread: Nipah Virus-The one you need to HEAR about!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37004534


it's a great thread btw.
NawtyBits  (OP)

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06/09/2018 11:52 AM
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Nawty, Feisty, I want to hear from you two on this...Please respond with comments when you get back...Article on common testing methods for the virus and potential for false positive results, even with genetic strains we are aware of yet alone variations from pre-existing strains....

[link to www.nature.com (secure)]

ELISA-based screening assays, although efficient, can yield high false positive and false negative rates compared with functional seroneutralization (SN) assays19. Thus, whenever possible, ELISA/Luminex-positive samples are confirmed by a SN assay. Although SN assays are considered a gold standard for seroprevalence studies19,20,21, follow-up confirmation with live virus SN assays is limited by the amount of sample available, and the requirement to work with live HNV in a high-containment facility (BSL-4). Consequently, in many prior studies only ELISA/Luminex-positive samples, and often only a small subset such as those with the highest binding activity, were confirmed with a biological or surrogate SN assay (reviewed in LF Wang et al.21; for example, AJ Peel et al.22). The latter is based on serum antibody competition of soluble receptor (sEphrinB2-Fc) binding to recombinant NiV-G or HeV-G conjugated to Luminex beads18. Although these procedures can guard against false positives, they do not address the loss of potential false negatives10,13,14.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67460490


Reading and noting

With a 3-4% sero positive rate in those who are handling fruit bats with no reported cases to the point where they didn't know it is in africa is concerning, what else are they freaking missing,

So it looks like in their testing they found a way to workaround the BSL 4 live virus specifications, Though I didn't see them finding a way to test how effective that system is for false negatives and positives in comparison.

My summary would be that I think this may make things a bit more complex. If we have that much crossover in them they would be able to switch and transfer genes moderately well. Cross over events aren't even able to be mapped out yet since most of the strain variants aren't in the system.

Not sure if that answers what you want, this article is pretty much a pointing out of how little they know about these viruses compared to what they need to know.

Edit* just realized that I had not finished the report, I will try to get back to finish it later, but I've a crying baby and 2 to feed lunch to so no promises.

It looks like they did do a test for effectiveness in a BSL4 so that previous statement was wrong.
 Quoting: Feistylorax


Nipah is a very concerning virus. I agree with what Feisty. False positives and false negatives are always a problem. Henipaviruses mutate often, and this will be a problem. We saw false negatives with MERS, as it mutated away from the test.

From the Nature article " These contrasting results suggest that our infectious NiVpp SN assay has increased sensitivity." With increased sensitivity comes increased chances for false positives in viruses, as exposure levels may be enough to trigger the test, but not "infect" the subject.

"Drexler et al. also showed that serum from the African bat that was infected with the parental GhV (Gh-M74a) exhibited cross-reactivity with antigens expressed on NiV-infected cells17. Mapping the sequence of GhV-G onto the NiV-G crystal structure indicated that despite the low overall sequence identity (~25%) between the two attachment glycoproteins, the ephrinB2 receptor-binding site was relatively conserved suggesting common receptor usage between these two divergent HNVs ." Commonalities can trigger the test.

Admittedly, most of the Nature article was above my education level.

Bottom line for me, I'd rather see false positives than false negatives. (Even today after 40 years, there are still false positives for things like HIV, because the tests that blood banks, for example, use is less sensitive than clinical level testing. It's cheaper and "close enough.")
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
[link to allafrica.com]

Congo-Kinshasa: WHO Reports 'Very Strong Progress' in Battling DR Congo Ebola Outbreak


One month after the start of an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), United Nations health experts on Friday reported "very strong progress" in the response to the disease.

Dr. Peter Salama of the World Health Organization (WHO) told journalists in Geneva that the first phase -- protecting urban centres and towns -- "has gone well, and we can be cautiously optimistic."

There have been 62 Ebola cases in the DRC during this latest oubreak, with 38 confirmations and 27 deaths.

The latest case, confirmed on Thursday, is in the remote Iboko health zone in the northwest: an indication that the outbreak is ongoing.
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
NiV Chart up to June 8:

[link to dhs.kerala.gov.in]
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06/18/2018 06:59 PM

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Has anyone else seen the sudden freakout on H7N9?
It's not changed or exploded that I've seen.
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06/18/2018 07:02 PM

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
h/t tetano

[link to www.africanews.com]

DR Congo reports first post-vaccination Ebola case


Democratic Republic of Congo has recorded its first confirmed case of Ebola in over a week, the health ministry said on Thursday, although medics say they have made significant progress in their efforts to contain the disease.

The patient, a known contact of someone who is believed to have died from Ebola on May 20, was confirmed positive on Wednesday for the haemorrhagic fever in the rural community of Iboko, the ministry said in a daily report.
 Quoting: NawtyBits


good to know.
Crazy Harriet

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06/21/2018 12:12 PM

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
A week or so ago I read about the bird flu in China. If that article was correct, it still spreads only from birds to people, not human-to-human, and would require 3 mutations to become h2h. Don't have the article anymore. It's getting so that if you don't bookmark something when you read it, good luck finding it again.

Still, just wanted to put that there, the no H2H.
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
I honestly think the recent H7N9 freak out may be conditioning for the threat to come. The articles strike me as strange, as if the virus is new in some way. It is at least 5 years old, that we know. It is possible the virus circulated in briefs before we discovered it.

It is off indeed feisty...

The media released threats have increased to a high level. Exercises, including the famed Ebola plane exercises, pandemic planning, and TPTB (Gates and others) are making it seem completely certain that a world changing pandemic is right around the corner. Everything seems to be pointing to the pandemic event. Possibly this fall/winter, as it is the centennial of the great 1918 pandemic.

Not trying to fear monger, but as someone who has been watching intently, it does seem all to clear.

I view this as part of the larger plan of population reduction, along with war, famine, and other methods to usher along a society which can be controlled easily in a mall potions of the g!obe. Automation and AI will fill the gaps upon reconstruction and the masters will have godlike control.
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bump
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bump
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06/28/2018 02:24 PM

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Was wondering what happened to this thread. No news on ebola or the Indian outbreak? hmmm
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NawtyBits  (OP)

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06/28/2018 03:39 PM
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
Was wondering what happened to this thread. No news on ebola or the Indian outbreak? hmmm
 Quoting: Crazy Harriet


shhhhhh
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
[link to allafrica.com]

Congo-Kinshasa: Special Statement by the Minister of Health on the Development of the Ninth Ebola Outbreak in the DRC


This Thursday, June 28, 2018, all people who have been in contact with the last confirmed case of Ebola have completed their 21-day follow-up period without showing signs of contamination. This is an important step in the response to the Ebola outbreak as it marks the beginning of the countdown to the announcement of the end of the ninth Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The end of the epidemic will be declared when the country has spent 42 days, two incubation periods, without notifying a new confirmed case of Ebola.

Comment: Good news. Half way there.
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‘Another outbreak is a certainty’: are we ready for a superbug epidemic?

[link to www.theguardian.com (secure)]

It has been 15 years since an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in Hong Kong killed 299 people and infected 1,755. The wildfire spread of the deadly virus through densely packed housing estates stunned the city’s health authorities and traumatised residents. Now the city’s top microbiologist thinks more deaths are on the way.

“It’s very likely we’ll see an epidemic on the scale of Sars,” says Professor KY Yuen, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong. He cites two key reasons for this, both applicable to cities around the world. The first is population density. “Our population is increasing. The number of people living in subdivided flats is now at least 200,000, maybe as high as 600,000,” says Yuen.

The second is the rise of antibiotic-resistant superbugs. One new superbug infection is reported every 18 minutes in the city’s public hospitals. “The level of antimicrobial resistance in Hong Kong far exceeds that in other developed countries, with resistance to some antibiotics over 20 times higher than in the UK or Sweden,” says Yuen.

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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
I read that there have been no new Nipah cases since May 30, still waiting for the 42 days before the outbreak can be called over.
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‘Another outbreak is a certainty’: are we ready for a superbug epidemic?

[link to www.theguardian.com (secure)]

It has been 15 years since an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in Hong Kong killed 299 people and infected 1,755. The wildfire spread of the deadly virus through densely packed housing estates stunned the city’s health authorities and traumatised residents. Now the city’s top microbiologist thinks more deaths are on the way.

“It’s very likely we’ll see an epidemic on the scale of Sars,” says Professor KY Yuen, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong. He cites two key reasons for this, both applicable to cities around the world. The first is population density. “Our population is increasing. The number of people living in subdivided flats is now at least 200,000, maybe as high as 600,000,” says Yuen.

The second is the rise of antibiotic-resistant superbugs. One new superbug infection is reported every 18 minutes in the city’s public hospitals. “The level of antimicrobial resistance in Hong Kong far exceeds that in other developed countries, with resistance to some antibiotics over 20 times higher than in the UK or Sweden,” says Yuen.

 Quoting: NawtyBits


Subdivided flats is professional speak for what others call coffin homes. Here is a peek at them. Ien by the poor.


[link to apartment.charmlab.org]

While they seem like some nightmarish fantasy, like the film, Brazil, they are how many live. Probably similar to urban India, such as Bangladore. Most of us in the west just don't understand the severity of the overcrowding problem.

It is no wonder that public health personnel worry about outbreaks into these conditions.
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‘Another outbreak is a certainty’: are we ready for a superbug epidemic?

[link to www.theguardian.com (secure)]

It has been 15 years since an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in Hong Kong killed 299 people and infected 1,755. The wildfire spread of the deadly virus through densely packed housing estates stunned the city’s health authorities and traumatised residents. Now the city’s top microbiologist thinks more deaths are on the way.

“It’s very likely we’ll see an epidemic on the scale of Sars,” says Professor KY Yuen, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong. He cites two key reasons for this, both applicable to cities around the world. The first is population density. “Our population is increasing. The number of people living in subdivided flats is now at least 200,000, maybe as high as 600,000,” says Yuen.

The second is the rise of antibiotic-resistant superbugs. One new superbug infection is reported every 18 minutes in the city’s public hospitals. “The level of antimicrobial resistance in Hong Kong far exceeds that in other developed countries, with resistance to some antibiotics over 20 times higher than in the UK or Sweden,” says Yuen.

 Quoting: NawtyBits


Subdivided flats is professional speak for what others call coffin homes. Here is a peek at them. Ien by the poor.


[link to apartment.charmlab.org]

While they seem like some nightmarish fantasy, like the film, Brazil, they are how many live. Probably similar to urban India, such as Bangladore. Most of us in the west just don't understand the severity of the overcrowding problem.

It is no wonder that public health personnel worry about outbreaks into these conditions.
 Quoting: Crazy Harriet


And once something gets started, nothing will stop it, short of burning the entire area to the ground.
I am a professional paranormal investigator, evidence posted on my Facebook page:

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]

WWJB-What Would Jimmy Buffett Do

"If it's wet and not yours, don't touch it." Oregon H1N1 Summit speaker
Anonymous Coward
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06/30/2018 06:41 PM
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
bump

Honestly surprised the outbreaks haven't begun yet...These living conditions appear all throughout Asia and beyond. Perfect recipe to spread viruses far and wide...and fast given how cramped they are. Often having toilets within a foot of sinks and cooking materials.

We have basically gotten lucky in recent years. Time is not on our side given population explosions, cramped living, and extremely overcrowded cities, of which people travel and interact with those who travel all over the world. It won't be long, given the history of major and moderate pandemics in the last hundred years alone, surprised it hasn't happened yet.

To those with heads buried in the sand, it WILL come...There is almost no way at this point that it won't happen very soon. Add to this the increased deforestation the world over, animal farms, etc new viruses are bound to break out onto the scene.

Just look at the relatively new Nipah virus which just hit India. We know very little, but do know that the virus can transmit from human to human in its current state. It is my leading contender for the next pandemic and is very deadly.I would keep a close eye on India, Bangladesh, and neighboring countries where the virus seems to be popping up more and more. Just remember that each time a human becomes infected, it gives the virus more chances to evolve and adapt.

Finally, there have been several drill scenarios, examining the impact of Nipah, or Nipah/influenza hybrids in the last few years. Clade X exercise and others like the blue ribbon exercise to name a couple.

[link to www.nbcnews.com (secure)]

It’s a scary scenario: A genetically engineered Nipah virus is sprayed into the air during a July 4th celebration in Washington, D.C., and across the country, killing more than 6,000 people.


A badly prepared United States does almost nothing at first, and people die as officials scramble to get a grip on what happened.

At some point, we will likely be attacked with a biological weapon, and will certainly be subjected to deadly naturally occurring infectious diseases and accidental exposures, for which our response will likely be insufficient.”
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06/30/2018 06:48 PM
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Re: Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12
The clade X exercise has much, much higher impacts than the previously mentioned link above. Suggesting millions could be killed all over the globe. This is the one that keeps me up at night. Given that it causes respiratory symtoms, unlike Ebola, it has a much easier time spreading as individuals cough and sneeze, this spreading the virus in aerosols rather than by direct contact with hu!s. It also often occurs in impoverished, densely populated areas. From which, it would easily move from the outbreak source, all around the globe.

Death rates as high as 70%, and long incubation periods, mean nasty things for this virus. Allowing spread to occur silently, until it is too late to stop transportation.

Very interesting.