Going Viral-Ebola vaccine is having ‘major impact’ but Congo outbreak may still explode; pg12

nevermind

Last Edited by R+ on 08/25/2018 12:55 AM

Nevermind to what? Do explain...

[link to www.newswise.com]

Newswise — As world health officials seek more effective Ebola treatments amidst another outbreak in Africa, an international team of scientists has discovered the first case of virus transmission from a female Ebola survivor, introducing more questions about the need to continue to treat survivors as well as detecting new cases quickly.

According to the study, “An Ebola virus disease cluster in Liberia in November 2015, after the end of widespread transmission, raised the possibility of transmission from a persistently infected individual. Investigations showed that a female patient survived Ebola virus disease in 2014, had viral persistence or recurrent disease, and transmitted the virus to other family members a year later. Based on serology and epidemiological and genomic data, our study is to our knowledge the first to provide evidence suggesting Ebola virus transmission from a persistently infected female survivor of Ebola virus disease.”

Not that hard when you think about. It's not in their back yard. Then there's the "it's a manmade attempt to cull the herd" people, who aren't really welcome in here, nor are the "it's a big pharma conspiracy to sell dangerous vaxes" crowd. So, you just get the people who are aware and awake and are keeping track of potential trouble spots in the world.

Personally, I think that man's downfall will be an ebola or Avian flu pandemic, so I keep track of such things. There are a few of us in here. And I know there are lurkers who read, but just don't chime in.

So here we are. I hope I'm wrong, but it's only a matter of time...and timing.

Yeah, this is quite concerning. And not very well known. The standard WHO/CDC/TPTB line is 90 days. If it becomes well known that survivors may be infectious after a year...or longer, then that opens a whole new can of worms. Survivors of ebola are already stigmatized and shunned, and the touchy-feely crowd will go batshit crazy if they think that people could be permanently ostracized from their local society. And, it creates a moral dilemma for those decision makers that have to balance the "rights" of the infected vs the safety of the community. Do they separate recovered from society? How do they decide who is a "persistently infected individual"?

Ugh.


[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]

Interim Guidance for Management of Survivors of Ebola Virus Disease in U.S. Healthcare Settings

[snip]

Ebola virus (EBOV) can persist for several months after acute infection in organs that are considered “immunologically privileged sites” – sites that are shielded from the survivor’s immune system (e.g., testes, eye, central nervous system). EBOV was isolated from a semen specimen collected 82 days after acute EVD onset from a male survivor12. Molecular evidence suggested sexual transmission of EBOV from an asymptomatic male survivor to a female partner 179 days after the survivor’s EVD onset13. The potential for residual infectious risk from EBOV persistence is further highlighted by recovery of infectious EBOV in cerebrospinal fluid collected at 282 days after EVD onset from a survivor who experienced late onset of meningoencephalitis signs and symptoms 14, and isolation of EBOV from an intraocular fluid specimen of an eye affected by panuveitis collected at 14 weeks after EVD onset 15, It is unknown whether EBOV can persist in synovial fluid with or without accompanying arthritis. Table 1 summarizes data available to date on detection of EBOV RNA by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or recovery of viable EBOV in viral culture from different clinical specimens.

The risk of infectivity from patients with persistent infection is unknown but appears to be low and is likely to decrease over time. Because patients who recover from acute EVD and later become ill with neurological or ocular symptoms might have persistent EBOV replication, appropriate infection control practices such as those recommended for evaluating persons under investigation for EVD should be adhered to until EBOV testing is negative. This also includes any situations where there is the possibility of contact with spinal fluid, semen, or ocular contents (e.g., lumbar puncture, spinal anesthesia, prostate or testicular surgery, and intraocular procedures).

Comment: Note the risk from patients with persistent infection is "unknown" but, of course "appears" to be low. CDC Weasel Words.

And, another question weighs on my mind. Since all the vaxes are unproven, will the vax wear off (for example, tetanus) and need a booster? Could the vax merely suppress the virus to low enough levels that the patient doesn't become symptomatic, but then gets sick 3 months, 6 months, a year later? If the vax is administered to someone who is infected, could they become a persistent spreader?

I am pro-vax, but these questions, plus others, make me nervous. Relying to heavily on vax and not trying to get to the root of the problem...where the fuck is ebola hosted?... is a big problem.

Add to the fact that there are at least five different "experimental" vaccines.

We have such little data on the drugs, especially now long they may be effective for. Also, when using multiple vaccines in the same areas, how do they know which are most effective, especially using the ring vaccination approach.

I am not anti vaccine, but I will say I work alongside many different clients and several different vaccines. Where science should be number one, often profit does become number one instead. It's infuriating....

This is why we pay attention. This time *is* different. is it the 'big one' or just another warning shot across the bow.

Last Edited by NawtyBits on 08/25/2018 02:56 PM

Figuted i would post this here, although some if you may frequent this site and already know.

From Crofsblog


So despite the growing numbers, I'm so far encouraged. As long as you can keep count of the cases, you're OK. It's also a good sign that the MOH is posting its daily updates right around 11:00 p.m. or midnight local time, and firing off an email about it to subscribers. If only Saudi Arabia were that much on top of events!

Still, I wish the Congolese were telling us more: about the communities, about the relationships between cases, about the staff working in the ETCs (who are among the bravest healthcare workers in the world). And about the lessons learned. It may seem like a dubious distinction, but the Congolese are becoming world experts in the handling of viral hemorrhagic disease outbreaks. Those outbreaks won't always be confined to the DR Congo, or to Africa, and other healthcare systems should be taking copious notes.

I also wish the Congolese media were doing more. Too often, their online sites are just rehashing yesterday's MOH update, or some Reuters report, rather than doing any serious reporting on their own. I realize that the DR Congo ranks 154th out of 190 nations on the 2018 Press Freedom Index, and that the country is overrun with trigger-happy militias like the Allied Democratic Forces in North Kivu. Still, it would be helpful if DR Congo reporters could interview healthcare workers, or Ebola survivors, or even ordinary people in the street, and publish what they learn.

[link to crofsblogs.typepad.com]

Charts below

[link to crofsblogs.typepad.com]

[link to crofsblogs.typepad.com]

Here is the quote that I did not believw.

From crofs, whom I have respect for, yet I do not agree with at this point. Personally, he is jumping the gun....bigtime. I would like happy results too, yet it is still very early in the game.




On balance, though, the tenth outbreak is growing much more slowly than we might have expected, and the response has been faster and more effective. Let's hope we can say the same four weeks from now.

__-__---_-------__-----::_::::::-::--

We are about One single month beyond the start of this.

[link to us13.campaign-archive.com (secure)]

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION IN THE PROVINCE OF NORTH KIVU

Sunday, August 26, 2018

The epidemiological situation of the Ebola Virus Disease dated 25 August 2018:

• A total of 111 cases of haemorrhagic fever were reported in the region, 83 confirmed and 28 probable.

• 6 suspected cases are under investigation.

• 4 new confirmed cases, including 3 in Beni and 1 in Mabalako.

• 2 deaths of confirmed cases, including 1 in Beni and 1 in Mabalako.

[snip]

Vaccination

• Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 3,591 people have been vaccinated , including 1,822 in Mabalako, 761 in Beni, 887 in Mandima and 121 in Oicha.

h/t crofsblog

[link to www.radiookapi.net (secure)]

Death of a person in Bunia after vomiting blood; suspected Ebola outbreak

One person died Saturday, August 25 in Bunia (Ituri), after showing similar signs of the Ebola virus disease. According to the provincial vice-governor, Pacific Kerta, the patient died a few hours after vomiting blood.

The patient had left Butembo in North Kivu and was traveling to Watsa in Haut-Uélé via Ituri. When he arrived in Lopa, 30 km north of Bunia, he began to vomit blood several times.

[snip]

He was first taken to a medical facility in Ndibakudu in Bunia before being sent to the General Hospital where he died.

Family members who wanted to recover their brother's body faced the refusal of the staff. A dispute ensued. The police had to intervene with warning shots to disperse them.

Comment: In 2012, Bunia had a population of 366,126 people.

From wikipedia: The city is at the center of the Ituri conflict between the Lendu and Hema. In the Second Congo War the city and district were the scene of much fighting and many civilian deaths from this conflict, and related clashes between militias and Uganda-based forces. Consequently, the city is the base of one of the largest United Nations peace-keeping forces in Africa, and its headquarters in northeastern DRC.

[link to allafrica.com (secure)]

Congo-Kinshasa: Ebola Outbreak Spreads to Eastern 'No-Go' Zone Surrounded By Rebels

Rebel violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is escalating inside the vast country's Ebola-hit North Kivu province, putting millions at risk, the United Nations refugee agency warned on Friday.

"Thousands of civilians have fled their burned-out villages, bringing reports of brutal attacks," Andrej Mahecic, spokesperson for the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), told the regular press briefing in Geneva Friday, following reports that a case of Ebola infection and one suspected case have been found in one town in the area, Oicha, which is surrounded by armed groups.

[snip]

At the same briefing, Dr. Peter Salama, WHO Deputy Director-General of Emergency Preparedness and Response, said that the discovery of Ebola infection in the hard-to-reach part of eastern DRC could mark a "pivotal" point in the response to the deadly disease.

"It really was the problem we were anticipating and the problem ... we were dreading. Our teams have responded this week. They've had to reach Oicha with armed escorts... Once they reach Oicha, they are able to move within Oicha town more freely, because the town itself is a yellow zone from a security perspective," he explained.

[snip]

...UNHCR is particularly worried about the deteriorating situation in the Ebola-hit northern territory of Ben, where Oicha town is located. The area is home to some 1.3 million people. Spiralling conflict has left the population living there virtually in a state of siege since October 2017.

[link to www.africanews.com]

WHO confirms Ebola case of doctor in DR Congo, says its 'a dreaded scenario'

The World Health Organisation (WHO)confirmed on Friday that a doctor has become the first probable Ebola case in one of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo’s most violence-ridden and inaccessible zones.

WHO described it as a scenario “we have all been dreading”.

[snip]

A doctor living in the town of Oicha in North Kivu has been re-hospitalised with Ebola symptoms after his wife was confirmed as having the disease when she travelled to the nearby city of Beni, said Dr. Peter Salama, WHO’s head of emergency operations.

105 cases on Aug 24. 6 in a day again.

Thanks for the updates nawty!

anytime

Nawty, you are correct. This time IS different.

Those poor people, getting burnt out of their villages which happen to be on or near mineral-rich property, only to face refugee camps or worse, and ebola in the mix. Who knows what other problems?

it is concerning to think ths disease can lay dormant for a yr and then infect others.if ppl are becoming carriers after they are "cured" or recover,this will change how the world should view this and possably future disease outbreaks.

in a full pandemic it would be troublesome to quaranteen a person for 30days. after, that it becomes quite difficult considering the amount of food and supplies the sick person would use up. it would be almost impossable to Quaranteen a person for a year.very very fem communities wouold even consider let alone attempt to try that.in a full pandemic apocalypse this would further isolate communities.it highly restricts trading with others even.

you bring up many good points to the vax itself.the initial tests they will use the "best" they can come up with.over time as greed takes over, they will "dumb" down the vax.some side affects may not be known for 50yrs.it will be almost impossable to monitor these ppl for that long.this is not the nomral lab to be testing in.

in the recent case where the mother had a baby and then infected her mate and other children brings up more concerns.is the newborn child a carrier?in 16yrs,will that child pass the disease on thru sex?this applies to the vaccinated as well.
do the vaccinated mothers spread the virus after they give birth?will their children be carriers?do we have 3500 carriers now or could we have double that going to the next generation?

a pandemic of this nature not only kills the affected population, but it also hinders the reproduction of any future population growth.

[link to www.msn.com (secure)]

China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

For over a year, the Chinese government has withheld lab samples of a rapidly evolving influenza virus from the United States — specimens needed to develop vaccines and treatments, according to federal health officials.

Despite persistent requests from government officials and research institutions, China has not provided samples of the dangerous virus, a type of bird flu called H7N9. In the past, such exchanges have been mostly routine under rules established by the World Health Organization.

Now, as the United States and China spar over trade, some scientists worry that the vital exchange of medical supplies and information could slow, hampering preparedness for the next biological threat.

The scenario is “unlike shortages in aluminum and soybeans,” said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard Medical School.

“Jeopardizing U.S. access to foreign pathogens and therapies to counter them undermines our nation’s ability to protect against infections which can spread globally within days.”

Experts concur that the world’s next global pandemic will likely come from a repeat offender: the flu. The H7N9 virus is one candidate.

Since taking root in China in 2013, the virus has spread through poultry farms, evolving into a highly pathogenic strain that can infect humans. It has killed 40 percent of its victims.

If this strain were to become highly contagious among humans, seasonal flu vaccines would provide little to no protection. Americans have virtually no immunity.

“Pandemic influenza spreads faster than anything else,” said Rick A. Bright, the director of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services that oversees vaccine development. “There’s nothing to hold it back or slow it down. Every minute counts.”

Under an agreement established by the World Health Organization, participating countries must transfer influenza samples with pandemic potential to designated research centers “in a timely manner.”

[snip]

Scientists at the Department of Agriculture have had such difficulty obtaining flu samples from China that they have stopped requesting them altogether,

[snip]

At least four research institutions have relied upon a small group of H7N9 samples from cases in Taiwan and Hong Kong. (All four asked not to be identified for fear of further straining ties.)

[snip]

“Countries don’t own their viral samples any more than they own the birds in their skies,” said Andrew C. Weber, who oversaw biological defense programs at the Pentagon during the Obama administration.

“Given that this flu virus is a potential threat to humanity, not sharing it immediately with the global network of W.H.O. laboratories like C.D.C. is scandalous. Many could die needlessly if China denies international access to samples.”

[link to www.africanews.com]

DRC ebola epidemic: mass vaccination rolls out as death toll rises

Mass vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo in an attempt to stem the Ebola epidemic that has already claimed at least 75 lives.

During the vaccination, thousands of people received doses as well as new drugs tested in the Beni region of North Kivu province.

This region is one of the most unstable and deadly in the country. And instability does not always facilitate work by medical teams.

Thanks Nawty, still following, not online as much, the kiddos are keeping me busy.

Kiddos do that. Savor the time.

[link to apps.who.int]

Democratic Republic of Congo: Ebola Virus Disease - External Situation Report 4

Report from World Health Organization

Published on 28 Aug 2018

Health Emergency Information and Risk Assessment
WHO Health Emergency Program

The Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, World Health Organization (WHO) and partners continue to respond to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces since 1 August 2018.

Since our last situation report on 22 August 2018 (External situation report 3), an additional nine new confirmed EVD cases and 16 new deaths have been reported. Fourteen other suspected cases were under investigation to confirm or exclude EVD. On 26 August 2018, no new confirmed EVD cases were recorded; three deaths among confirmed cases were reported, one in Béni and two in Mabalako; and there were 25 case-patients admitted in the Ebola treatment centres (ETCs) in Mangina (20), Béni (3) and Goma (2).

As of 26 August 2018, a total of 111 confirmed and probable EVD cases, including 75 deaths (case fatality ratio 67.6%), have been reported. Of the 111 cases, 83 are confirmed and 28 are probable. Of the 75 deaths, 47 occurred in confirmed cases. A total of 15 healthcare workers have been affected, of which 14 are confirmed and one has died.

Since the onset of the outbreak, 18 case-patients have recovered from the disease, were discharged and re-integrated into their communities. Among 107 out of 111 confirmed and probable cases for which age and sex information is known, the age group 30–44 accounted for 25% (27/107) of all cases, with women accounting for 55% of cases (59/107).

Mabalako Health Zone in North Kivu Province remains the epicentre of the outbreak, accounting for 77% (85/111) of all cases, including 64 confirmed and 21 probable cases. Additionally, four other health zones in North Kivu Province and one in Ituri Province have reported confirmed and probable cases (Table 1).

As of 26 August 2018, a total of 2 445 contacts were under follow up, of which 1 903 (79%) were seen on the reporting day. Over the past two days, the contact tracing exercise was affected by some community resistance, especially in Bingo health area in Mabalako Health Zone and Botsuli health area in Béni Health Zone, as well as by insecurity in Oicha Health Zone.

Alerts have been reported and investigated in several provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo as well as its neighbouring countries, namely Burundi, Central African Republic, Rwanda, and Uganda, and to date, EVD has been ruled out in all these alerts.

[snip]

Conclusion

The EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to evolve. A lot of progress has been made on the
ground and all elements of the response are now functional, including an alert management system, systematic contact
tracing, laboratory confirmation, appropriate isolation facilities and use of experimental medicines, preventive vaccination, and community mobilization and engagement. These measures should be able to prevent further exposures to infections and break the chain of transmission. Notwithstanding, there are still some serious issues that are being attended to as a matter of urgency, for instance, occurrence of community deaths and emergence of cases outside known transmission chains, as well as resolving reluctance/resistance to public health actions by some communities.

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EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION IN THE PROVINCE OF NORTH KIVU

Tuesday 28 August 2018

The Epidemiological Situation of Ebola Virus Disease on August 27, 2018:

• A total of 112 cases of haemorrhagic fever were reported in the region, 84 confirmed and 28 probable.

• 18 suspected cases are under investigation, including 2 in the city of Goma.

• 1 new case confirmed in Mandima (known contact).

• No new deaths.

• 3 new people healed

[snip]

* Following the concerns of civil society regarding the start of the school year, a committee of experts met to assess whether it was necessary to postpone the start of the school year. After evaluating the situation, the committee concluded that it was preferable to maintain the return to school on September 3 as planned.

*Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 4,511 people have been vaccinated , including 2,278 in Mabalako, 1,095 in Beni, 1,017 in Mandima and 121 in Oicha.

Comment: In 2012, Goma had a population of 1 million people.

I'm trying to find out more info on:

Notwithstanding, there are still some serious issues that are being attended to as a matter of urgency, for instance, occurrence of community deaths and emergence of cases outside known transmission chains, as well as resolving reluctance/resistance to public health actions by some communities.

And, 2 suspected cases in a city of over a million people.



These events bear watching.

Oh. And Goma is on the border with Rwanda.

So, there's that.

Lovely. community acquired cases (best way to describe ones outside the transmission chains)on a large border town of another country with a population higher than my state. What could go wrong....

Oh yeah and tribal fighting between up to 40 groups...

I think I'll pick up some powdered bleach just in case.,