REPORT ABUSIVE REPLY
|
Message Subject
|
Hawaii Hurricane Hector is OVER - (pg 6)
|
Poster Handle
|
Rose8 |
Post Content
|
...
142 WTPZ45 KNHC 022041 TCDEP5
Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018
Hector is a small but powerful hurricane this afternoon. Visible GOES-15 data show that it has a 10 n mi wide eye, surrounded by a increasingly symmetric area of deep convection. The latest satellite estimates at 18 UTC were between 90 kt and 95 kt, and since the presentation has continued to improve during the past few hours, the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt.
Hector has intensified an impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours- remarkable since the environment did not seem particularly favorable even 12 hours ago. What is perplexing about this forecast is that, despite all of the global models showing a more conducive environment during the next day or two, none of the regional hurricane models show intensification, and in fact they all show weakening. This would be a dramatic change, which seems pretty unlikely given the current state of things. It makes the most sense to show continuing strengthening, albeit at a reduced rate since the SSTs do moderate, in line with the SHIPS & LGEM models. The new forecast has a peak intensity at 72 hours when SSTs are the warmest with the lowest environmental shear. After that time, water temperatures and mid-level humidites should gradually decrease, which will probably promote some weakening. Obviously this is a low confidence forecast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had to be raised in the short term later tonight.
Hector continues on course, moving westward at 12 kt. The track forecast for the next 3 days is of high confidence, since the guidance is in good agreement and a large subtropical ridge is providing a well-defined steering current. Complications arise in the long range due to the potential interaction of Hector with a mid-level trough in the Central Pacific. The latest models show Hector moving into a weakness in the ridge associated with the trough, causing a more west-northwestward motion earlier in the forecast. This is a fairly subtle change but has led to most of the guidance trending to the north. The official forecast is shifted in that direction, but remains on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, close to the corrected-consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 125.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
Quoting: Rose8 Why do you call it a "Hypercane"?? It's a CAT 3 with sustained winds are 115 kts at peak, a CAT 5 is > 136 kts sustained winds. I also rely more upon the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center. They have a much better accurate forecast history. USN isn't fake news/MSM based. [ link to www.metoc.navy.mil] Sorry to ruin your fear porn. Although, I'll see how far it marches across the Pacific Ocean over next week. I watch for tropical systems once they near Palau or Guam. Quoting: Agent MIB I think it is unkind to label any thread where the OP is giving an honest attempt to warn folks. That being said...You need to realize that the so-called "accurate weather models" are pretty much DEAD-IN-THE-WATER NOW with our current up-tick in Gamma Ray Bursts and the 180 electrical-connection to all the planets being on one side of the sun (this has a very REAL affect on Earth.) We had over 16 Gamma Ray Bursts detected for only the month of July 2018...an unprecedented number...that has punched "ELECTRICAL JUICE" into all the existing storms as well as adding to earthquake intensities. So...buckle-up Dorothy...YOU AERN'T IN KANSAS ANYMORE! Quoting: TheOracle'sCookie That was the clumsiest "You're right, big jerk here" I ever heard? Click-bait title sux
Hypercane winds exceed 700 MPH so this is not going to be a Hypercane, based on current forecast models it's barely going to be a major hurricane with winds topping near 120.
Quoting: PivotPower Awww....did I make you click on the informative thread? Waaaa Quoting: Rose8 1 star gay thread. The thread is a half-effort at some scary paata, but the op acts like an idiot really. *The Crayon font would save people a lot of time looking? They'd use it too because it looks bigger. Quoting: Timur2020 Nobody is asking for your stars Timur. Nobody is asking anyone to be scared, but to be aware. And nobody determines my worth but me. So fekk off.
|
|
Please verify you're human:
|
|
Reason for reporting:
|