Hawaii Hurricane Hector is OVER - (pg 6)

142
WTPZ45 KNHC 022041
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Hector is a small but powerful hurricane this afternoon. Visible
GOES-15 data show that it has a 10 n mi wide eye, surrounded by a
increasingly symmetric area of deep convection. The latest
satellite estimates at 18 UTC were between 90 kt and 95 kt, and
since the presentation has continued to improve during the past few
hours, the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt.

Hector has intensified an impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours-
remarkable since the environment did not seem particularly
favorable even 12 hours ago. What is perplexing about this forecast
is that, despite all of the global models showing a more conducive
environment during the next day or two, none of the regional
hurricane models show intensification, and in fact they all show
weakening. This would be a dramatic change, which seems pretty
unlikely given the current state of things. It makes the most sense
to show continuing strengthening, albeit at a reduced rate since the
SSTs do moderate, in line with the SHIPS & LGEM models. The new
forecast has a peak intensity at 72 hours when SSTs are the warmest
with the lowest environmental shear. After that time, water
temperatures and mid-level humidites should gradually decrease,
which will probably promote some weakening. Obviously this is a low
confidence forecast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had to be
raised in the short term later tonight.

Hector continues on course, moving westward at 12 kt. The track
forecast for the next 3 days is of high confidence, since the
guidance is in good agreement and a large subtropical ridge is
providing a well-defined steering current. Complications arise in
the long range due to the potential interaction of Hector with a
mid-level trough in the Central Pacific. The latest models show
Hector moving into a weakness in the ridge associated with the
trough, causing a more west-northwestward motion earlier in the
forecast. This is a fairly subtle change but has led to most of
the guidance trending to the north. The official forecast is
shifted in that direction, but remains on the southwest side of the
guidance envelope, close to the corrected-consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 125.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

I think it is unkind to label any thread where the OP is
giving an honest attempt to warn folks.

That being said...You need to realize that the so-called
"accurate weather models" are pretty much DEAD-IN-THE-WATER
NOW with our current up-tick in Gamma Ray Bursts and
the 180 electrical-connection to all the planets being on
one side of the sun (this has a very REAL affect on Earth.)

We had over 16 Gamma Ray Bursts detected for only the month
of July 2018...an unprecedented number...that has punched
"ELECTRICAL JUICE" into all the existing storms as well
as adding to earthquake intensities.

So...buckle-up Dorothy...YOU AERN'T IN KANSAS ANYMORE!

Awww....did I make you click on the informative thread? Waaaa

Click-bait title sux

Hypercane winds exceed 700 MPH so this is not going to be a Hypercane, based on current forecast models it's barely going to be a major hurricane with winds topping near 120.

You ever been to the Hawaiian Islands??? This is an area unaccustomed to major storms, regardless of what you wish to call them, has massive numbers of tourists in low lying areas subject to nasty storm surges (the Hilton I stayed in on Waikiki last year would be inundated), and is generally prepared for only "paradise" type weather, and the random asshole who pushes the "incoming nuke" siren without reason.

I think we can all come up with ideas for something, on which, you can go pivot. Now find a thread to your liking, and stay away from this one.

OBTW, next time you see a storm packing 120mph sustained winds, please go stand in said winds, come back and let us know how it was.