HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265

What model?

Not yet. Will take time

But will happen

MODEL DENOTES A SOUTHERN PASSAGE

Following. Thanks for all your work.

Your CURRENT Local Weather Forecast Here

Weather Alert
Coastal Flood Advisory issued September 01 at 5:52AM CDT until September 02 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS New Orleans

...Persistent Onshore Flow Leading to Some Minor Coastal Flooding... .With days of onshore flow having already occurred water has been slowly piling up along the south and east facing shores. Winds have finally begun to ramp up and this is driving even more water towards the coast. Combine that with larger tidal fluctuation right now and tides are running almost 2 feet above normal in a few places. Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal are expected through at least Sunday and possibly well into next week. ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT Sunday. * COASTAL FLOODING...1 to 2 feet above normal tides. * TIMING...through Sunday and possibly well into next week. * IMPACTS...Minor inundation of low lying areas along the coast and outside levees.

looks like a fun week

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Seven, located a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

1. A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Pasch

I sense this will be really nasty to east coast, maby worse than Sandy and Katrina.

Really really hard to NOT ignore this mid level low currently sitting over Louisiana.

Tropical or not, it sure is pretty.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi
7h7 hours ago

Pattern IMO warrants concern about Florence, Like 1933 west east high out over N Atl Sept 9-12 may steer storm west if no recurve this weekend, should be 1st major of season,very warm SST feedback pumps ridge to north, also fuels storm. matches pre season intensity concern

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Erosion and subsidence are already a huge problem. Clear day flooding in Charleston was significant the last time I was there.

The coast has been sinking for a while

See: Botanical Phenomena and the Problem of Recent Coastal Subsidence by
Douglas Wilson Johnson for details

The coast is like a ghost of its former self now:

[link to phys.org (secure)]

The Matthew hurricane that Shep reported on turned into a dud(relatively) immediately after he said those words. Maybe they should ask him to be a doommonger again for this year's hurricane so he can work his magic again.

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 09/03/2018 05:28 AM

@CycloneTracker
3h3 hours ago

Would definitely expect #Florence to have a go at becoming a hurricane today. That satellite presentation is stunning considering how it looked like yesterday afternoon!

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

Just in: NOAA hurricane model has Gordon as a category two hurricane at the LA/MS border.

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]


In 2005 Hurricane Katrina made landfall at LA/MS as a category three.



Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 09/03/2018 07:19 AM

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE is small compared to the next on comming it will form in the next day or two there is too much engry in the water and it has got to go some were

Better not ask Joel Osteen for help!

523
WTNT32 KNHC 031131
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

061
ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Seven, located near the upper Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next several days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Flo nearing hurricane strength according to UW CIMMS ADT

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 SEP 2018 Time : 104535 UTC
Lat : 18:03:33 N Lon : 37:58:00 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 986.0mb/ 63.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.0 4.0

532
WTNT62 KNHC 031202
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS...

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Stewart

Thread: GORDON: FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... GRENADA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...!!!