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HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265

 
NewGeneration2019

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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
So much for computer models:

"Given the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly intensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any intensity models, nor forecasters."

 Quoting: Luisport


told ya

hf
Veritas_Aequitas

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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
...


the major models say to NC and NY
 Quoting: Luisport


Man, it's really hard for any storm to make it that far north, not saying it can't happen but just keep in mind, it's historically difficult. It will be interesting to watch.
 Quoting: JustTheFactsPlease


True, but it has been happening more frequently on a 4-6 year cycle and since Irene & Sandy happened 6 years ago, it’s very concerning. Everyone! Get a bunch of fans and aim them off the coast lol, that will push the storm away 😜
 Quoting: Veritas_Aequitas


I did find these spaghetti models for her;

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

There is also another invest, 92L I think I saw, right behind her but it is currently predicted to track a little more to the south. This may (not may) allow it to stay more on a more westerly track, at least initially.

DOOM ON...just because it's that time of year!
 Quoting: JustTheFactsPlease


Thank you!
"If God saw what any of us did that night he didn't seem to mind. From then on I knew... God doesn't make the world this way. We do." --Rorschach

"Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial." - Shakespeare

And Shepherds we shall be For thee, my Lord, for thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand Our feet may swiftly carry out Thy commands. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomeni Patri Et Fili Spiritus Sancti.
Veritas_Aequitas

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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
Where is she headed?
 Quoting: Rachael123


the major models say to NC and NY
 Quoting: Luisport


Sooooo NJ, GREATTTTT eh. My roof leaks enough & we’ve been nailed by rain this summer. For Luis or anyone who is interested, there’s a guy on FB who runs “WeatherNJ” who is really good. He does a lot with hurricane watches & storms, he does focus more on the NE USA, but always has good info.
 Quoting: Veritas_Aequitas


Thanks I'll look him up.We have a place down the shore in Jersey and live in PA.
 Quoting: Rachael123


You’re welcome. He is pretty good! I live by the water so I’m always watching every possibility of a hit, more so since Sandy. Thankfully we are up a hill from one of the inlets & didn’t get the surge, but a lot of my neighbors were nailed directly. Having the power off for almost 3 weeks didn’t help :(
"If God saw what any of us did that night he didn't seem to mind. From then on I knew... God doesn't make the world this way. We do." --Rorschach

"Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial." - Shakespeare

And Shepherds we shall be For thee, my Lord, for thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand Our feet may swiftly carry out Thy commands. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomeni Patri Et Fili Spiritus Sancti.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
Hurricane Tracker App
@hurrtrackerapp
Repost: By day 7, what will likely be Hurricane #Helene will be headed W/WNW towards the Caribbean. Next week may be crazy as #Florence & #Helene may threaten land.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265

Ed Vallee 🌽 Vallee Wx Consulting 🌾
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@EdValleeWx
In all seriousness, #Florence has no choice but to go due west early next week on this GFS run thanks to emerging high pressure north of the system. Going to be a wild few days as things become more clear.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265

Ed Vallee 🌽 Vallee Wx Consulting 🌾
✔
@EdValleeWx
In all seriousness, #Florence has no choice but to go due west early next week on this GFS run thanks to emerging high pressure north of the system. Going to be a wild few days as things become more clear.

 Quoting: Luisport


Right now East coast should be closely monitoring this, but 8 or 9 days out and models will change, especially specifics. However, people in Bermuda really need to be concerned now- they should prepare for the worst.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
MAJOR DOOM!!!

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

Surge will be a massive issue if flo comes this close. The storm is huge and powerful. The coast line will funnel in waves, inducing record high surge
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
MAJOR DOOM!!!

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

Surge will be a massive issue if flo comes this close. The storm is huge and powerful. The coast line will funnel in waves, inducing record high surge

 Quoting: Luisport


[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
buh bye florence according to this model but helene is coming too
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
The thinking is that the GFS model has Florence drive into the ridge too easily. If it didn't do this then it would be comfortably showing a landfall solution. All eyes onto the more reliable Euro model coming out shortly. hiding
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
helene could shift west and hit east coast thanks to ridge [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] at this point all these models failed to predict strenght of florence
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
@RyanMaue
28m28 minutes ago

Ocean heat increases on the track of Hurricane #Florence ... so as long as the shear remains manageable, the storm can continue to intensify.

110-knots is the current intensity but could be a nudge higher (Category 4)

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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
so Florence is no land hit?
I only seek the truth n nothing but the truth!

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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
so Florence is no land hit?
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!


NO NEAD TO... scream
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
The eye of hurricane #Florence continues to warm and is surrounded by deep convection with very cold cloud tops.

Signs point to this being a category 4 storm later today.


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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
GFS was initialized at 978 mbars. EMCWF at 993 mbars. FV3 at 971mbars. If anything it seems that the FV3 currently has the best grasp of the storm.
a passing cloud

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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
so it just has to get on the "good" side of that pressure dome and then it's "guaranteed coastal hit"?

there's something about that six year interval between sandy and today that intrigues me [i'm in NYC]...of course that's not backed by science, but science gets constantly humbled.
why did i send myself to this world?? there must have been a reason.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
Thank again Luis you may have a permanent pin for hurricanes.


What is talk about Hawaii


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current wind
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
[youtube]
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
Maxwell Little • a few seconds ago
Florence is why global models are not very good for tropical cyclone intensity. Hurricanes are fundamentally mesoscale systems which require significantly more resolution to properly model.

Also, whatever is in the water over there needs to be strained out - a Category 3/4 under those conditions isn't supposed to happen.

My theory is that Florence is somehow coupled to the TUTT in such a way as to minimize core wind shear, kind of like Gert and Chris did for awhile.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
so it just has to get on the "good" side of that pressure dome and then it's "guaranteed coastal hit"?

there's something about that six year interval between sandy and today that intrigues me [i'm in NYC]...of course that's not backed by science, but science gets constantly humbled.
 Quoting: a passing cloud


I said the same thing earlier, a 4-6 year track. I’m in NJ, so I hear you!
"If God saw what any of us did that night he didn't seem to mind. From then on I knew... God doesn't make the world this way. We do." --Rorschach

"Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial." - Shakespeare

And Shepherds we shall be For thee, my Lord, for thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand Our feet may swiftly carry out Thy commands. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomeni Patri Et Fili Spiritus Sancti.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
Euro... [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]


alone
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to twitter.com (secure)]
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
Before dismissing or doom-blasting any tropical storm, history has proven any prediction greater than 72 hours out is subject to radical reconfiguration.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
 Quoting: Luisport


This one makes landfall with 966Mb
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
so it just has to get on the "good" side of that pressure dome and then it's "guaranteed coastal hit"?

there's something about that six year interval between sandy and today that intrigues me [i'm in NYC]...of course that's not backed by science, but science gets constantly humbled.
 Quoting: a passing cloud


I think that the high pressure is in a good position it just has to stay strong enough because its ridge is what steers the storm towards the US

these much warmer than normal sea temps off the east coast are helping to 'pump the ridge' damned

Last Edited by CoronaCoaster on 09/05/2018 02:53 PM
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
"I said the same thing earlier, a 4-6 year track. I’m in NJ, so I hear you!"

i think it could be the same way with megaquakes, only with a seven year cycle. if so, we're weeks or days away from a 9+ whomper...cascadia? i wish they were better prepared.
why did i send myself to this world?? there must have been a reason.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
 Quoting: Luisport


This one makes landfall with 966Mb
[link to imgur.com (secure)]

 Quoting: Luisport


[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

Nearly stalled out for 2 days over NJ coast!!!
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
The eye is getting pretty small yet it is warming and the convection is intensifying.... its like the storm is trying to fortify itself from its surroundings. Annular transition would not be surprising.
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Re: HURRICANE MICHAEL ON CAROLINAS: Floodings on NC. Tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and Virginia until 9 PM EDT!!p265
@NHC_TAFB
5m
5 minutes ago

A satellite altimeter pass this morning confirms that wave heights 12 ft or greater now extend up to 210 nautical miles (NM) north and 120 NM south of the center of Major Hurricane Florence #Florence
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