Russia-Ukraine UPDATE:Russia threatens Ukraine any attack on DPR/Pro Rus forces will lead to end of Ukraine's existence as a sovereign nation

My own guess is that Putin will steal what he believes he "needs," but not everything he wants. Thus, he will conquer the Ukrainian seacoast as far as Odessa, and link it up with the eastern rebel provinces (Donetsk and Luhansk). But he will not actually roll through Kyiv, because:

- NATO would react in some way, even if only financially (by cutting off Russian access to the world banking system)
- He would face some level of guerrilla warfare in the capital
- He would then have responsibility for Ukraine's economic problems
- The legitimate Ukrainian government would flee to Lviv, and get considerable international sympathy as well as overwhelming public support.

The sad truth is that if Putin limits himself to the seacoast and eastern provinces, NATO will do little in response.

Note also that Putin will certainly make up some kind of ridiculous excuse, just as Hitler did. Here is Hitler's famous quote:

[link to www.historyplace.com]
---
"I shall give a propagandist reason for starting the war. Never mind whether it is plausible or not. The victor will not be asked afterward whether he told the truth or not. In starting and waging a war it is not right that matters but victory."
---

Hitler's series of false-flag attacks was called Operation Himmler.

Last Edited by BeSkeptical on 12/13/2018 09:46 AM

Obviously, you are. If you actually knew both languages, you would know that Ukrainian is roughly halfway between Russian and Polish--just as one would expect from geography. Ukrainian city and other place names have a distnctive spelling style, different from Russian. There is a reason that Ukrainians prefer (even in English) to spell their capital Kyiv rather than Kiev.

Absolutely correct as I am very familiar with all 3: Russian, Ukrainian and Polish...

I am in agreement with your thoughts... Putin needs to consolidate access to Crimea and the Black Sea. The only way he could achieve that is by taking all lands east of Dniepr river without entering Kyiv. Not sure on Odessa though... However, if he did take Odessa it would allow a direct connection into Transdniestria - a most likely welcome benefit to Putin, while still not triggering NATO.

Here comes the next USSR:



INTELLIPUS
‏ @intellipus

INTELLIPUS Retweeted Dmitry Medvedev

Opening stage in a move to annex?

INTELLIPUS added,
Dmitry Medvedev
Verified account @MedvedevRussiaE
We are ready to continue building the Union State of Russia and Belarus, including establishing a joint issuing centre, single customs service, court and accounts chamber. In this case, we will also have a joint pricing and tariff policy

8:37 AM - 13 Dec 2018

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

This could be the perfect distraction for Russians to make a move in Ukraine - as US gets entangled with Turkey and The Kurds.


Mutlu Civiroglu
‏Verified account @mutludc

Turkey primed to start offensive against US-backed Kurds in Syria @guardian
5:57 PM - 12 Dec 2018

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

So you chose to post something from an obviously war-like Neocon group.
Let's reason this out.
Why would Russia attack Ukraine without provocation from Ukraine? What does Russia possibly have to gain by doing that? The thought is Preposterous. The ONLY way Russia would attack Ukraine would be in response to Ukraine killing Donbass and Russian people, or Blowing up the new Russian bridge might be enough provocation.
I do believe that Ukraine/NATO/US/Neocons are trying to provoke a war with Russia. Crazy times. I'm sure, if it starts, it won't be limited to Ukraine. I hope that President Trump is smart enough to figure that out. The US has no business in Ukraine. If Peroshenko does not achieve martial law, I'm sure he will be voted out. Thankfully. When Peroshenko goes, the Punishment of Donbass stops.

Yevhen Fedchenko
‏ @yevhenfedchenko

earlier this info was only on marginal websites, now it's official (announced by #Zakharova @MID_RF) - #Russia is preparing major offensive against #Ukraine, under pretext #Ukraine is doing that first. We do not know yet what and where will happen but #RussiaAttacksUkraine

2:28 AM - 13 Dec 2018

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What does Russia possibly have to gain by doing that? For one, it would greatly benefit Russia to consolidate the lands around Crimea, providing Crimea with much needed resources currently cut off by the Ukraine, and directly create a land bridge to disputed territory in Transdniestria. Secondly, it would once and for all settle Russia as THE master of the Black Sea. Pure dominance play.

I do believe that Ukraine/NATO/US/Neocons are trying to provoke a war with Russia. Crazy times. In full agreement with you on this.

The US has no business in Ukraine. Majority of Ukrainians are tired of old Soviet style government and blatant corruption it breeds... They yearn to emulate the western values (not sure which ones these days) and a western style of economy. They see folks live better in Europe and want the same for themselves.

If Peroshenko does not achieve martial law, I'm sure he will be voted out. Thankfully. When Peroshenko goes, the Punishment of Donbass stops.
I agree, the only way Poroshenko gets elected is if Russia invades - in which case he freezes elections. "Punishment of Donbass" is Putins way of applying direct pressure on Ukrainian election outcome, imo.

Radio Lemberg
‏ @RadioLemberg

Radio Lemberg Retweeted Necro Mancer

"We, Russians, went there to Donbas not to support those temporary "people's republics" but to join this territory to Russia."

Watch it carefully, @cnni @BBCWorld @NBCNews @AFP @AP @dwnews @euronews @RFERL @EU_Commission

Radio Lemberg added,
1:02
Necro Mancer
@666_mancer



3:51 AM - 13 Dec 2018

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Jens Stoltenberg
‏Verified account @jensstoltenberg

Substantial meeting with; President Petro Poroshenko today at NATO HQ. #NATO stands with #Ukraine and will continue to provide strong political & practical support.
3:28 AM - 13 Dec 2018

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ELINT News
‏ @ELINTNews

#UPDATE: Ukraine’s SBU intel: Russian intelligence services plotting to stage violent riots in various Ukrainian cities this Saturday in an attempt to disrupt the historic Kyiv assembly to establish an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church free from Moscow

3:57 AM - 13 Dec 2018

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ivMilAir
✈
‏ @CivMilAir

'UAVGH000' 51,000ft watching over eastern #Ukraine 🇺🇦

🇺🇸 US Air Force
RQ-4 Global Hawk
2:39 AM - 13 Dec 2018

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Kateryna_Kruk
‏ @Kateryna_Kruk

Kateryna_Kruk Retweeted RT

Kyiv isn’t starting anything but each time RU raises the alarme like this is to cover its own actions.

Kateryna_Kruk added,
RT
Verified account @RT_com
#Kiev may start major offensive in rebellious east ‘within days’ – #Moscow [link to on.rt.com (secure)]
4:46 AM - 13 Dec 2018

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ukraine Wants Nuclear Weapons: Will the West Bow to the Regime in Kiev?

The former Ukrainian envoy to NATO, Major General Petro Garashchuk, recently stated in an interview with Obozrevatel TV:

“I'll say it once more. We have the ability to develop and produce our own nuclear weapons, currently available in the world, such as the one that was built in the former USSR and which is now in independent Ukraine, located in the city of Dnipro (former Dnipropetrovsk) that can produce these kinds of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Neither the United States, nor Russia, nor China have produced a missile named Satan … At the same time, Ukraine does not have to worry about international sanctions when creating these nuclear weapons."

/.../
Moscow, if faced with such a possibility, would not just stand there. In spite of Russia having good relations with North Korea, it did not seem too excited at the prospect of having a nuclear-armed neighbor. With Ukraine, the response would be much more severe. A nuclear-armed Ukraine would be a red line for Moscow, just as Crimea and Sevastopol were. It is worth remembering the Russian president’s words when referring to the possibility of a NATO invasion of Crimea during the 2014 coup:

"We were ready to do it [putting Russia's nuclear arsenal on alert]. Russian people live there, they are in danger, we cannot leave them. It was not us who committed to coup, it was the nationalists and people with extreme beliefs. I do not think this is actually anyone's wish – to turn it into a global conflict."

As Kiev stands on the precipice, it will be good for the neocons, the neoliberals and their European lackeys to consider the consequences of advising Kiev to jump or not. Giving the nuclear go-ahead to a Ukrainian leadership so unstable and detached from reality may just be the spark that sets off Armageddon.

[link to www.strategic-culture.org (secure)]

/less 50%/

Petri Mäkelä
‏ @pmakela1

Petri Mäkelä Retweeted English Lugansk

Either there is a kinky party coming up in #Donetsk or someone is following the propaganda narrative and preparing for the (false flag) escalation that the Russian media has been drumming up for weeks now.

Petri Mäkelä added,
English Lugansk
@loogunda
Dec13 occupied part of #Donetsk oblast: OZK hazmat suits [link to twitter.com (secure)] …
Show this thread
1:54 PM - 13 Dec 2018

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World Events Live
‏ @IdeologyWars

World Events Live Retweeted World Events Live

#UPDATE: This move by #Russia is similar to what came before invasion of #Georgia and usually comes right before troop movements.#Iskander Ballistic missiles are also capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This is also a move to likely prevent other nations getting involved.-Gage

World Events Live added,
World Events Live
@IdeologyWars
#UPDATE: #Russia has moved an Iskander ballistic missile unit 50km away from the #Ukraine border putting Kyiv in their range. -Gage [link to twitter.com (secure)] …
6:32 PM - 13 Dec 2018

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Josh Manning
‏ @joshuamanning23

Josh Manning Retweeted Olga Lautman

This is a key indicator of impending action. The Iskanders were key ahead of the 2008 Georgia incursion. Moscow uses these missiles ahead of troop movements.

4:43 PM - 13 Dec 2018

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Mark Rachkevych
Mark Rachkevych
@chitowntoktown
·
4h
#Ukraine #military intel says #Russia delivered 100 additional fighter jets to #Crimea. This build up is alarming, to say the least.

Russia has an economic incentive to invade Ukraine without provocation by repeating what they did to Crimea. I would argue Ukraine has much less a reason to provoke Russia and only has a downside. But I do agree USA has no business in Ukraine outside of friendly trade relations. USA would not like military assets in Cuba or Mexico.

If you hear reports of Ukrainian friendly forces attacking into disputed border regions with Russia, get ready. That per-mediated both Crimea and Georgia invasions.

Last Edited by Old Custer on 12/14/2018 10:28 AM

Business Ukraine mag
‏ @Biz_Ukraine_Mag

Business Ukraine mag Retweeted Yevhen Fedchenko

Kremlin media continues to push the narrative of an impending Ukrainian offensive. Meanwhile, Russia is massing troops and tanks in the border zone, leading to speculation that Moscow is preparing the ground for a fresh escalation which it will seek to blame on “Kyiv aggression”

5:35 AM - 13 Dec 2018

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Thread: The Ukraine will be used as a tool to see how far they can push Russia

marqs
‏ @MarQs__

marqs Retweeted Mark Rachkevych

It's not only alarming, it's INSANE.

marqs added,
Mark Rachkevych
@chitowntoktown
#Ukraine #military intel says #Russia delivered 100 additional fighter jets to #Crimea. This build up is alarming, to say the least. [link to gur.gov.ua]
7:13 AM - 14 Dec 2018

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maybe is a misspelling, probably 10 not 100

ric Moreno
‏ @KingNeptune767

Eric Moreno Retweeted Mikhail D.

Reports of 6 russian #submarines in the black sea. Due to size restrictions I would assume most if not all are #SSK.

@CovertShores @intellipus @ZcohenCNN @Capt_Navy

@Saturn5_ @YorukIsik see any sub transits lately??

Eric Moreno added,
Mikhail D.
@Eire_QC
(2) Ukrainian military intelligence official: Russia has also deployed 6 modern submarines capable of carrying Kalibr missiles which can strike at ground target for up to 1,500 Kilometers. #Ukraine #Crimea
Show this thread
9:46 AM - 14 Dec 2018

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INTELLIPUS
‏ @intellipus
Replying to @KingNeptune767 @CovertShores and

Thats the entire 4th independent Submarine Brigade according to this source: [link to www.kchf.ru] …

Alrosa (B-871) (Kilo)
Novorossiysk (B-261)
Rostov na donu (B-237)
Staryy Oskol (B-262)
Krasnodar (B-265)
Velikiy Novgorod (B-268)
Kolpino (B-271)

All except Alrosa improved Kilo
10:28 AM - 14 Dec 2018

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ELINT News
‏ @ELINTNews

#UPDATE: To clarify some local sources were referring to heavier fighting near the old airfield near Vodyane, not far from Mariupol. Not Donetsk International Airport as it turns out. No clashes at Donetsk airport.
1:21 PM - 14 Dec 2018

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Beware "fakenews" coming out of the region...

Some threads on GLP are using these reports as fact





World Events Live
‏ @IdeologyWars


#WARNING: The account below is a Russian propaganda account that is trying to impersonate me and spread false information under my name. This is not me nor am I affiliated with this account in any way. -Gage

World Events Live added,
Russia International News
🇷🇺
@russia_watch
#BREAKING: According to reports the #Ukraine army is attacking #Dontesk airports with heavy artillery and tanks. -Gage
2:00 PM - 14 Dec 2018

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Beware Fake News:

Always verify with "English Lugansk" feed for actual time sensitive reports from Donbas:

[link to twitter.com (secure)]