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An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked

 
Fifth-and-a-Half Element
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An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
For the first time in a while, stock market investors are being spooked this week by what’s happening in the bond market. And the reason has something to do with an occurrence that is not exactly in the everyday investor’s lexicon: an inverted yield curve.

Put simply, an inverted yield curve happens when bond yields at the short end of the bond spectrum rise above those at the long end. Usually, the bond market focuses on the difference between the yields on U.S. Treasury two-year notes and those for 10-year notes. When the yield curve inverts, it means the two-year notes pay bondholders more in interest than 10-year notes do, something that’s both rare and counterintuitive.

For economists and investors, it’s a loud warning about the economy’s outlook. One portfolio manager called the inverted yield curve a “harbinger of doom.” It has a scarily accurate track record of predicting economic recessions, which in past decades have arrived six months to two years after an inversion.

[link to fortune.com]
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/06/2018 08:44 AM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Thread: dow jones futures down almost 500!!!!
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12/06/2018 12:21 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
hmmmzers
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The DarkShadow

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12/06/2018 12:22 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
After 8 years of ZIRP and no interest rate increases, it sure doesn't take a very high percentage to invert the yield curve.

It also doesn't take a very large percentage to bring the potemkin economy crumbling.

Is the Fed working with Mueller? It wouldn't surprise me.
Adragon

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12/06/2018 12:24 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
For the first time in a while, stock market investors are being spooked this week by what’s happening in the bond market. And the reason has something to do with an occurrence that is not exactly in the everyday investor’s lexicon: an inverted yield curve.

Put simply, an inverted yield curve happens when bond yields at the short end of the bond spectrum rise above those at the long end. Usually, the bond market focuses on the difference between the yields on U.S. Treasury two-year notes and those for 10-year notes. When the yield curve inverts, it means the two-year notes pay bondholders more in interest than 10-year notes do, something that’s both rare and counterintuitive.

For economists and investors, it’s a loud warning about the economy’s outlook. One portfolio manager called the inverted yield curve a “harbinger of doom.” It has a scarily accurate track record of predicting economic recessions, which in past decades have arrived six months to two years after an inversion.

[link to fortune.com]
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


The inverted yield curve is a graph that shows that younger treasury bond yields are yielding more interest than older ones.



doom
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12/06/2018 02:41 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
"(((Yield-Curve)))"...?

Ha-Ha-Ha...

Stark-Market is the most corrupt, NWO-controlled, BQMTJ infested shit-hole on the planet...

Get-Some...!

REAL Ass-Hats that is...!

?

House-Of-Cards...
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BohemianExile

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12/06/2018 02:45 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
After 8 years of ZIRP and no interest rate increases, it sure doesn't take a very high percentage to invert the yield curve.

It also doesn't take a very large percentage to bring the potemkin economy crumbling.

Is the Fed working with Mueller? It wouldn't surprise me.
 Quoting: The DarkShadow


Democrats created the Federal Reserve, the IRS, the FBI, and the CIA.

They exist to maintain Democrat power. That is all.
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Hermit Seb

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12/06/2018 02:48 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
After 8 years of ZIRP and no interest rate increases, it sure doesn't take a very high percentage to invert the yield curve.

It also doesn't take a very large percentage to bring the potemkin economy crumbling.

Is the Fed working with Mueller? It wouldn't surprise me.
 Quoting: The DarkShadow


Democrats created the Federal Reserve, the IRS, the FBI, and the CIA.

They exist to maintain Democrat power. That is all.
 Quoting: BohemianExile


Yeah but in those days the Democrunts were the Right, and the Republicans the Left.. at some point the name switched sides for some reason lol
Please listen closely to what I am about to say: "Hey.. Don't!!"
rosicrucian1

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12/06/2018 03:34 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
For the first time in a while, stock market investors are being spooked this week by what’s happening in the bond market. And the reason has something to do with an occurrence that is not exactly in the everyday investor’s lexicon: an inverted yield curve.

Put simply, an inverted yield curve happens when bond yields at the short end of the bond spectrum rise above those at the long end. Usually, the bond market focuses on the difference between the yields on U.S. Treasury two-year notes and those for 10-year notes. When the yield curve inverts, it means the two-year notes pay bondholders more in interest than 10-year notes do, something that’s both rare and counterintuitive.

For economists and investors, it’s a loud warning about the economy’s outlook. One portfolio manager called the inverted yield curve a “harbinger of doom.” It has a scarily accurate track record of predicting economic recessions, which in past decades have arrived six months to two years after an inversion.

[link to fortune.com]
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


how could this have happened unless the Fed fukkery?

anyone?
“the devil is a foe to the blood” Prof. Minor
Cardiak

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12/06/2018 03:52 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
For the first time in a while, stock market investors are being spooked this week by what’s happening in the bond market. And the reason has something to do with an occurrence that is not exactly in the everyday investor’s lexicon: an inverted yield curve.

Put simply, an inverted yield curve happens when bond yields at the short end of the bond spectrum rise above those at the long end. Usually, the bond market focuses on the difference between the yields on U.S. Treasury two-year notes and those for 10-year notes. When the yield curve inverts, it means the two-year notes pay bondholders more in interest than 10-year notes do, something that’s both rare and counterintuitive.

For economists and investors, it’s a loud warning about the economy’s outlook. One portfolio manager called the inverted yield curve a “harbinger of doom.” It has a scarily accurate track record of predicting economic recessions, which in past decades have arrived six months to two years after an inversion.

[link to fortune.com]
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


how could this have happened unless the Fed fukkery?

anyone?
 Quoting: rosicrucian1


Ez, The fed brought down rates to almost 0 during Obamas eight years and began raising them over and over during trumps second year when the economy was booming. Not sure that could even be considered an indicator considering we’ve never brought interest rates as low as we did during those years
BRIEF

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12/06/2018 04:33 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
They got spoiled with cheap interest rates...cash costs money, like I've always said the borrowers are slave to the lenders, so um kneel while I unzip lol
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Hermit Seb

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12/06/2018 05:09 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
One of you guys need to learn your own history better.. pretty sad that a Canadian has to school you about this..


Did the Democrats and Republicans “Switch Parties”?

The American political parties, now called Democrats and Republicans, switched platform planks, ideologies, and members many times in American history. These switches were typically spurred on by major legislative changes and events, such as the Civil War in the 1860’s, and Civil Rights in the 1960’s. The changes then unfolded over the course of decades to create what historians call the “Party Systems


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Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/06/2018 07:24 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Monty Python

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12/06/2018 08:59 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Here's a good explanation of the Inverted Yield Curve theory:

[link to www.bloomberg.com (secure)]
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Monty Python

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12/06/2018 09:03 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
After 8 years of ZIRP and no interest rate increases, it sure doesn't take a very high percentage to invert the yield curve.

It also doesn't take a very large percentage to bring the potemkin economy crumbling.

Is the Fed working with Mueller? It wouldn't surprise me.
 Quoting: The DarkShadow


Democrats created the Federal Reserve, the IRS, the FBI, and the CIA.

They exist to maintain Democrat power. That is all.
 Quoting: BohemianExile


Don't be fooled by Party labels.

The globalist banksters and Wall Street created the Fed.

Read The Creature From Jekyll Island for more info.
Monty Python's Flying Circus
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:05 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Here's a good explanation of the Inverted Yield Curve theory:

[link to www.bloomberg.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Monty Python


"The spread between short- and long-term Treasury yields [inverted curve yield] has dropped below zero ahead of each of the past seven recessions."

This is the most accurate predictor of an impending recession that we have.

Get ready.
jake

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12/06/2018 09:06 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.

Last Edited by jake on 12/06/2018 09:07 PM
#walkaway
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:16 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
jake

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12/06/2018 09:18 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


I'm talking about you ending up in federal prison

very soon.
#walkaway
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:20 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


I'm talking about you ending up in federal prison

very soon.
 Quoting: jake


For posting a factual article stating that an inverted yield curve is a reliable predictor of recessions? That this has predicted each of the last seven recessions?
Monty Python

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12/06/2018 09:21 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


Because a recession can't happen under Trump's policies, didn't you know? Even though no President controls the Fed.
Monty Python's Flying Circus
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:22 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


Because a recession can't happen under Trump's policies, didn't you know? Even though no President controls the Fed.
 Quoting: Monty Python


No, I will admit that I didn't know that. I was only going fro historical precedent.

So how is a recession impossible under Trump's policies?
Monty Python

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12/06/2018 09:23 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


Because a recession can't happen under Trump's policies, didn't you know? Even though no President controls the Fed.
 Quoting: Monty Python


No, I will admit that I didn't know that. I was only going fro historical precedent.

So how is a recession impossible under Trump's policies?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


I was being sarcastic.
Monty Python's Flying Circus
jake

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12/06/2018 09:26 PM

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
why the mods allow Russian propaganda artists on this

website i will never know..



Time to start turning them into the Feds.
 Quoting: jake


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


I'm talking about you ending up in federal prison

very soon.
 Quoting: jake


For posting a factual article stating that an inverted yield curve is a reliable predictor of recessions? That this has predicted each of the last seven recessions?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


you are gonna be rounded up, you know that right?
#walkaway
Yidna

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12/06/2018 09:26 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
inverted yield curve may be what spooked them then into recession every time it comes.

buck it this time.

we're on a good trajectory.

I thought it was you think it, and it happens.

how about 7 years of prosperity... but now that we're a space-man, why not make it seven "God Years", where each day of that seven years is translated into a thousand years.

Last Edited by Yidna on 12/06/2018 09:28 PM
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
...


I'm not sure – which of the posts are Russian propaganda?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


I'm talking about you ending up in federal prison

very soon.
 Quoting: jake


For posting a factual article stating that an inverted yield curve is a reliable predictor of recessions? That this has predicted each of the last seven recessions?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


you are gonna be rounded up, you know that right?
 Quoting: jake


For posting historical fact? Wow. Fascist much?

If you believe that the article is not accurate, please let us know.

Last Edited by Fifth-and-a-Half Element on 12/06/2018 09:31 PM
Yidna

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12/06/2018 11:32 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
THIS WHOLE CURVE IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE CANADIAN MAIL STRIKE.

DON'T WORRY

WE'LL BUY STUFF AGAIN AFTER THE STRIKE.
Yidna

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12/06/2018 11:34 PM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
THIS WHOLE CURVE IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE CANADIAN MAIL STRIKE.

DON'T WORRY

WE'LL BUY STUFF AGAIN AFTER THE STRIKE.
 Quoting: Yidna


WHEN A WHOLE COUNTRY PUTS IT'S INTERNET SHOPPING ON HOLD... THERE'S GONNA BE A CURVE.
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Thread: Treasuries yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade. *2007*
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Thread: Dow tumbles more than 500 points, wipes out gains for the entire year
Fifth-and-a-Half Element  (OP)

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12/08/2018 01:03 AM
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Re: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Brace for a 15% plunge in S&P 500 next year if the Treasury yield curve fully inverts

Parts of the U.S. bond market are seeing short-dated yields push above their long-dated peers, a “warning sign” for the stock market as Wall Street’s economic expectations for 2019 deteriorate.

That’s what Oliver Jones, an analyst for Capital Economics, said in a recent note, as investors pay newfound attention to the yield curve, the spread between short-dated and long-dated yields. Jones and others are worried that if this gap continues to narrow, more losses will follow for the S&P 500 SPX, -2.33% which has already been retreating from its October highs.

“History suggests that once the Treasury yield curve becomes very flat or starts to invert, the stock market tends to struggle over the following couple of years, as the economy eventually starts to weaken,” said Jones.

Jones says investors may not want to take any chances. In the chart below, he shows that whenever the spread between the 2-year note has matched or pushed above the 10-year note yield, the S&P 500’s returns over the next two years has turned negative. He expects the S&P 500 to slump 15% in 2019.

[link to www.marketwatch.com (secure)]