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ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"

 
BullionDude
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12/06/2018 08:30 AM
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ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
With initial jobless claims breaking their positive trend, ADP (and tomorrow's BLS data) are left to confirm the "strong economy" narrative with their linearly extrapolated jobs growth trends.

After beating expectations in 4 of the last 5 months, November saw ADP employment additions disappoint notably (+179k vs +195k exp) with large employers (1000+) shedding jobs...



“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

”Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ability to provide stronger wages and benefits. It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but has likely peaked. This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation. With very tight labor markets, and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.”

Under the covers, the most notable item is the drop in large employer employment..

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
Fifth-and-a-Half Element

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12/06/2018 08:33 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Uh oh.
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12/06/2018 08:36 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!

Last Edited by Willins on 12/06/2018 08:37 AM
Vicious Deplorable dollop
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12/06/2018 08:41 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
They must have consulted with Obama to produce that.
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Fifth-and-a-Half Element

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12/06/2018 08:43 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


Thread: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
BullionDude  (OP)

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12/06/2018 08:46 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


They must have consulted with Obama to produce that.
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


I am a Trump fan but unfortunately Bush, Obama and the Fed have created a stock market bubble, a real estate bubble and a dollar bubble that are all starting to pop. I am not sure what Trump can do as there has been so much damage done to this country by others for so long.

In my opinion the only thing that can fix it is a giant reset.
Fifth-and-a-Half Element

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12/06/2018 08:50 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


They must have consulted with Obama to produce that.
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


I am a Trump fan but unfortunately Bush, Obama and the Fed have created a stock market bubble, a real estate bubble and a dollar bubble that are all starting to pop. I am not sure what Trump can do as there has been so much damage done to this country by others for so long.

In my opinion the only thing that can fix it is a giant reset.
 Quoting: BullionDude


2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
BullionDude  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:04 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


It would have been if things would have been fixed. If banks would have been allowed to fail instead of be bailed out. If people would have gone to jail. Unfortunately 2008 was an appetizer compared to the plate of crap that is coming.

I was in the subprime mortgage industry. I am seeing everything that was going on in 2007 and 2008 happening all over again. Zero down mortgages. Use your homes equity as an ATM. Property values are back to where they were or higher.

Most people do not realize that a big part of the financial crisis was not just people buying homes they could not afford but speculators buying multiple brand new homes from the builder to flip just based on the quick increase in prices. These people had excellent credit, assets and great jobs.
Fifth-and-a-Half Element

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12/06/2018 09:15 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


It would have been if things would have been fixed. If banks would have been allowed to fail instead of be bailed out. If people would have gone to jail. Unfortunately 2008 was an appetizer compared to the plate of crap that is coming.

I was in the subprime mortgage industry. I am seeing everything that was going on in 2007 and 2008 happening all over again. Zero down mortgages. Use your homes equity as an ATM. Property values are back to where they were or higher.

Most people do not realize that a big part of the financial crisis was not just people buying homes they could not afford but speculators buying multiple brand new homes from the builder to flip just based on the quick increase in prices. These people had excellent credit, assets and great jobs.
 Quoting: BullionDude


Slimeball.
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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12/06/2018 09:31 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


It would have been if things would have been fixed. If banks would have been allowed to fail instead of be bailed out. If people would have gone to jail. Unfortunately 2008 was an appetizer compared to the plate of crap that is coming.

I was in the subprime mortgage industry. I am seeing everything that was going on in 2007 and 2008 happening all over again. Zero down mortgages. Use your homes equity as an ATM. Property values are back to where they were or higher.

Most people do not realize that a big part of the financial crisis was not just people buying homes they could not afford but speculators buying multiple brand new homes from the builder to flip just based on the quick increase in prices. These people had excellent credit, assets and great jobs.
 Quoting: BullionDude


^^That^^

Most people seem to not have learned, and the predators were not disciplined by the legal or financial system -- the bailouts just let them off the hook for their bad behavior.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

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Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

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12/06/2018 09:33 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


It would have been if things would have been fixed. If banks would have been allowed to fail instead of be bailed out. If people would have gone to jail. Unfortunately 2008 was an appetizer compared to the plate of crap that is coming.

I was in the subprime mortgage industry. I am seeing everything that was going on in 2007 and 2008 happening all over again. Zero down mortgages. Use your homes equity as an ATM. Property values are back to where they were or higher.

Most people do not realize that a big part of the financial crisis was not just people buying homes they could not afford but speculators buying multiple brand new homes from the builder to flip just based on the quick increase in prices. These people had excellent credit, assets and great jobs.
 Quoting: BullionDude


Slimeball.
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


Not any more than the person working for banks and auto companies after the bailout.

Back then, for a noob in mortgage finance, you probably worked subprime. The folks with experience were the ones who worked with the prime customers.
Fate whispers to the warrior

"You cannot withstand the storm"

and the warrior whispers back

"I am the storm"

INTJ:
Independent, original, analytical, and determined. Have an exceptional ability to turn theories into solid plans of action. Highly value knowledge, competence, and structure. Driven to derive meaning from their visions. Long-range thinkers. Have very high standards for their performance, and the performance of others. Natural leaders, but will follow if they trust existing leaders.

Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Follow. But! Follow only if ye be men of valor! For the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel, that no man yet has fought with it... and lived! BONES of full fifty men lie *strewn* about its lair! So! Brave knights! If you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty, big, pointy teeth...

Killer Bunny
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12/06/2018 09:37 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Most people seem to not have learned, and the predators were not disciplined by the legal or financial system -- the bailouts just let them off the hook for their bad behavior.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


We never recovered from 2007 and 2008. The fed pumped money into the system and told banks to lend. They did. So money went everywhere. The stock market, the real estate market, cryptocurrencies all bubbles caused by cash flowing into them.

The dollars time as the world's reserve currency is near an end so plan accordingly.
rosicrucian1

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12/06/2018 09:38 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
NWO communists goal:

crash the economy before Jan 1, 2019 and blame it on Trump...

those cold hearted bastards.
“the devil is a foe to the blood” Prof. Minor
1-2-Follow

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12/06/2018 09:39 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
I'm sure nothing would please the media more than the failure of the citizens of the country so that they can blame the mean orange man.
My team color isn't red or blue. It's GOLD.

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Nonfeminazi

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12/06/2018 09:42 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
With initial jobless claims breaking their positive trend, ADP (and tomorrow's BLS data) are left to confirm the "strong economy" narrative with their linearly extrapolated jobs growth trends.

After beating expectations in 4 of the last 5 months, November saw ADP employment additions disappoint notably (+179k vs +195k exp) with large employers (1000+) shedding jobs...



“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

”Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ability to provide stronger wages and benefits. It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but has likely peaked. This month’s report is free of significant weather effects and suggests slowing underlying job creation. With very tight labor markets, and record unfilled positions, businesses will have an increasingly tough time adding to payrolls.”

Under the covers, the most notable item is the drop in large employer employment..

[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
 Quoting: BullionDude


Predictable. Once the Dems won the House, confidence stopped. Employers can see the writing on the Wall. Back to the Obummer years.
One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. Plato
BullionDude  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:45 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


It would have been if things would have been fixed. If banks would have been allowed to fail instead of be bailed out. If people would have gone to jail. Unfortunately 2008 was an appetizer compared to the plate of crap that is coming.

I was in the subprime mortgage industry. I am seeing everything that was going on in 2007 and 2008 happening all over again. Zero down mortgages. Use your homes equity as an ATM. Property values are back to where they were or higher.

Most people do not realize that a big part of the financial crisis was not just people buying homes they could not afford but speculators buying multiple brand new homes from the builder to flip just based on the quick increase in prices. These people had excellent credit, assets and great jobs.
 Quoting: BullionDude


Slimeball.
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


Not any more than the person working for banks and auto companies after the bailout.

Back then, for a noob in mortgage finance, you probably worked subprime. The folks with experience were the ones who worked with the prime customers.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


I went from mortgage broker to wholesale account executive for subprime mortgage lenders. I was looking for more stability and subprime was hiring. I did it for 13 years until 2008. The two mortgage brokers in The Big Short are spot on representations of the industry. The people that wanted to make more money did subprime. It was quality versus quantity. If you wanted to make the same amount of money in prime loans you had to do twice as many.

Fun fact the guy who got me into the business was Matthew Bevan Cox but that is a whole other story.
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Nonfeminazi

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12/06/2018 09:48 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


No, the real problem is employers not willing to train someone who is a good worker. Their "qualifications" are so out of this world, no one bothers to apply.
One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. Plato
rosicrucian1

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12/06/2018 09:50 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


No, the real problem is employers not willing to train someone who is a good worker. Their "qualifications" are so out of this world, no one bothers to apply.
 Quoting: Nonfeminazi


they do this deliberately to exclude you from the workforce it is reverse discrimination.
“the devil is a foe to the blood” Prof. Minor
BullionDude  (OP)

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12/06/2018 09:52 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


No, the real problem is employers not willing to train someone who is a good worker. Their "qualifications" are so out of this world, no one bothers to apply.
 Quoting: Nonfeminazi


The real problem is government intervention and sticking their noses where it does not belong. Minimum wages are the biggest reason for an employer not hiring a worker and in second place is health insurance.
marcomartim

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12/06/2018 10:29 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
The company my friend works in NJ is offering $ 2500 for anyone bringing a new employee ...
Beware of misinformation agents, they are infiltrating everywhere.
Most of the things that have taught you about the story, is a farce.
The truth is still out there
Sarah Langley

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
The company my friend works in NJ is offering $ 2500 for anyone bringing a new employee ...
 Quoting: marcomartim


Same here. We need over 100 new people. Must be US Citizen and have basic skills in the field. Can't find any.

I'm building a house. Every contractor I deal with is behind on deadlines and complains of not being able to find anyone to work.

The good news is this will drive up pay. Those with work can expect to make more money.

Employment will tailor off as employers struggle with finding new talent.

Anyone who can't get a job is either dumb or lazy (or is covered in face tattoos.)
Sarah
BullionDude  (OP)

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12/06/2018 11:09 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
The company my friend works in NJ is offering $ 2500 for anyone bringing a new employee ...
 Quoting: marcomartim


Same here. We need over 100 new people. Must be US Citizen and have basic skills in the field. Can't find any.

I'm building a house. Every contractor I deal with is behind on deadlines and complains of not being able to find anyone to work.

The good news is this will drive up pay. Those with work can expect to make more money.

Employment will tailor off as employers struggle with finding new talent.

Anyone who can't get a job is either dumb or lazy (or is covered in face tattoos.)
 Quoting: Sarah Langley


Again government is the roadblock here.

Welfare and other Government programs probably make it hard to accept a job where you pay state and local taxes, drive to work and pay for child care. Are there dumb and lazy people out there sure, but there are also people who use recreational drugs and who have bad credit. There are also people leaving deep blue states and heading to red states because they just cannot afford to live in those states (NJ).
BUD WHITE

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12/06/2018 11:25 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Uh oh.
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


Yeah, oh no. The economy is humming along and there’s still 7 million jobs out there. Oh no bitch. Oh no. 😂
MissCleo

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12/06/2018 11:53 AM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
next comes famine.
Bonefortoona

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12/06/2018 11:57 AM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Sure it has, business knows that the next two years are completely uncertain. With the Dems controlling the House, its a time to pause, reflect and watch. Business knows that the Dems would rather crash the country than to stop harassing Trump. Taxes and regulations are going to skyrocket soon, so will interest and inflation.

Investigations, lawsuits, slander, MSM Headlines will all be negative. With all this negativity, business suffers. This is really there is to all of it, including the stock market selloff.

People are selling their investments and holding cash or buying property. No one trusts the Dems.
Little Red Hen

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12/06/2018 12:53 PM
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Pure bullshit!
Appeasement is feeding a crocodile, hoping he will eat you last.
SuperEliteSpaceForce

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12/06/2018 12:58 PM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
I'm looking to hire 2. Liberals need not apply.
You heard the man.
Tatoonie_Wizard

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12/06/2018 12:59 PM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
Fuck this bad news bullshit. The real fireworks in this economy will come next year. Don't forget this is not the asshole establishment economy, it is the TRUMP economy. The media are trying their ass off to get the word recession into as many sentences as possible. Full employment itself guarantees no recession for years. The economy runs on consumer spending, and you see how quiet the enemy media is about Black Friday shopping?? Oh you can find some news on it, but you have to LOOK for it.

Fuck this negative bullshit. The economy is set to grow and grow. The real problem will be getting enough skilled workers. MAGA!!!!!!
 Quoting: Willins


They must have consulted with Obama to produce that.
 Quoting: Vicious Deplorable dollop


I am a Trump fan but unfortunately Bush, Obama and the Fed have created a stock market bubble, a real estate bubble and a dollar bubble that are all starting to pop. I am not sure what Trump can do as there has been so much damage done to this country by others for so long.

In my opinion the only thing that can fix it is a giant reset.
 Quoting: BullionDude


2008 was not enough of a "reset" for you?
 Quoting: Fifth-and-a-Half Element


2008 was a blip.
Tatoonie_Wizard

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12/06/2018 01:08 PM
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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
next comes famine.
 Quoting: MissCleo


If a famine comes, your libtard buddies will be the progenitors.
marcomartim

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12/06/2018 01:16 PM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
The company my friend works in NJ is offering $ 2500 for anyone bringing a new employee ...
 Quoting: marcomartim


Same here. We need over 100 new people. Must be US Citizen and have basic skills in the field. Can't find any.

I'm building a house. Every contractor I deal with is behind on deadlines and complains of not being able to find anyone to work.

The good news is this will drive up pay. Those with work can expect to make more money.

Employment will tailor off as employers struggle with finding new talent.

Anyone who can't get a job is either dumb or lazy (or is covered in face tattoos.)
 Quoting: Sarah Langley


bump
Beware of misinformation agents, they are infiltrating everywhere.
Most of the things that have taught you about the story, is a farce.
The truth is still out there
SmoothSailing

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12/06/2018 01:49 PM

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Re: ADP Employment Disappoints: "Job Growth Has Likely Peaked"
ADP gave $24,695,303.00 toward Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016

[link to www.opensecrets.org (secure)]
"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."
Marcus Tullius Cicero