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Iran Enters Deep Recession, Admits 27% Unemployment

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01/10/2019 06:07 PM

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Iran Enters Deep Recession, Admits 27% Unemployment
The government of Iran is prone to belligerent defiance about the resilience of its economy in the face of U.S. sanctions, but Radio Farda noted on Wednesday that even the dubious data officially released by Tehran depicts a country in “deep recession” with staggering unemployment rates.

Radio Farda explained that even though Iran’s official statistics bureau laughably counts people who work one hour per week as “employed,” it still found 27 percent unemployment among young Iranians, 40 percent among university graduates, and job creation puttering along at 550,000 jobs for the year when 900,000 are needed. The Iranian year begins on March 21, so those totals are about two months shy of being final for 2018.

The Radio Farda article advanced some other reasons to find Iran’s official data “barely convincing”:

For instance, the economic growth rate for the past six months has declined in comparison to the average growth rate last year. As a matter of fact, in the last few months of 2018, Iran officially entered a deep recession. The decline must have affected the unemployment rate, but there is no trace of it in the statistics Iran has released.

Meanwhile, Iranian employment figures are based on limited samples but their results are generalized to the entire heterogeneous society. Such a methodological flaw will affect the results. So, even if the unemployment figures have not been manipulated, they are questionable from a methodological point of view. Therefore, true unemployment figures for this year can be much higher that what has been announced.

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