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Message Subject Time to board the Bitcoin train
Poster Handle Midwest Skeptic
Post Content
High $19,065 (on weekly chart)
Current $3,900

Nearly all people who have bought Bitcoin since 9/17/2017 are UPSIDE DOWN on their purchase. There have only been 5 weeks since then that Bitcoin has traded lower than it's present price, and all of those have been in the last 2 months. To top it off those prices haven't been much lower than the present price (meaning not much of a gain has been possible).

Following the 90/10 rule, a mania object will lose lose 90% of it's gains once the mania ceases leaving only 10% of the gains, AT MOST. With that knowledge one can easily calculate where a solid basing area for Bitcoin MIGHT come into play.

Weekly price high $19,065, the old long term basing ares before the "Bubble" was in the $600 to $950 range, so let's call it $1000 for shits and grins, leaving a BUBBLE GAIN of $18,000+-. 90% of that is $16,200. 19,065 less $16,200 gives an indicated HIGHEST LEVEL potential pricing base area in the $2,850 range, but it could easily be lower. (That is still a solid $1000 below the current level). Bitcoin could easily go all the way back to it's old basing area of $600 to $900 before it hits a solid foundation.

If you analyze risk, even if one believes in Bitcoin, one should NOT invest in Bitcoin until it hits that potential base area $2,850 (preferably lower), otherwise your RISK for further declines is way too high on a "risk adjusted basis".


(to condense MANY years and a lot of research of my looking at MANY Manias: ... in my review of major "mania's" over the centuries I have noted that some go all the way to ZERO ... only those with real economic substance can really form a "Base" and SLOWLY start back up from there. To add further ... usually the collapse off of a bubble top takes 24 to 60 months, with most of those collapses bottoming in the 36 to 48 month range)
 
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