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Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert

 
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
hiding
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
bump
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17 - 22:00 PM RET March 12 2019
CYCLONE TROPICAL IDAI (11-20182019)
=========================================================
North Northeast of Europa island
East of Mozambique

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Idai (965 hPa) located at 19.1S 40.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
20 nm radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 nm radius from the center, extending up to 35 nm in the southwestern quadrant, up to 40 nm in the northeastern quadrant and up to 45 nm in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===================
85 nm radius from the center, extending up to 90 nm in the northeastern quadrant, up to 95 nm in the northwestern quadrant and up to 100 nm in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
125 nm radius from the center, extending up to 135 nm in the northwestern quadrant and up to 140 nm in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.5S 39.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.8S 38.4E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.8S 35.7E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 18.5S 33.8E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
=========================
The last microwave images available (1309z and 1522z SSMIS, 1515z WINDSAT) allow the monitoring of the lengthy evolution of the eyewall replacement cycle. As the inner eyewall remains solid and seems to be the main motor of the improvements in the ir sat presentation over the last 12 hours, the outer eyewall finally closed its western semi-circle and began to contract. The inner eyewall should thus disappear overnight and this eyewall replacement cycle could be completed by tomorrow morning.

Idai maintains a southwestwards track that is expected to bend gradually westwards from tomorrow with the strengthening influence of a subtropical ridge located to the southwest of the system. Confidence in the track forecast remains good, as the model dispersion is low. There are approximately 3 chances out of 4 for the landfall point on the Mozambican coast to be between Chinde in the north and Chiloane in the south, including Beira's area. The landfall should occur between Thursday night and early Friday morning.

Although environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive and able to support an intense system until landfall, the intensity forecast remains challenging due to the ongoing inner core processes. Mimic precipitable water imagery from CIMSS shows some dry air wrapping around the eastern outer circulation but with very low shear or mid-shear expected, this dry air should remain outside the inner core.

Idai is expected to regain its intense tropical cyclone status as it nears the Mozambique coast in the next 24-48 hours. Maximum intensity has been increased at 115 knots taking into account the last intensity guidance runs, this represents a compromise between the ICNW data at 95-100 knots and the french Finescale model Arome that brings the system to 120-130 knots tomorrow.

Idai should be a very dangerous storm at the time of its landfall and the inhabitants of the expected landfall area are urged to follow official recommendations and monitor the information issued by the Mozambican national weather service. Dangerous storm surge, exceeding 3 meters are likely at the point of landfall and to its south. On the current forecast track, storm surge in the Beira area may reach 2 meters (caution: this value does not take into account the tide and the sea level rise due to the cyclonic swell)
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
[link to twitter.com (secure)] simulation.I heard somewhere that storm surge will reach 20 ft siren2 siren2 siren2
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
APOCALIPTIC FLOODS!

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Luisport

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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Luisport

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Landfall area [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
 Quoting: Luisport


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Landfall will be in Sofala province, near Beira city on the night of 14th to 15th March!
Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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03/12/2019 05:31 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
 Quoting: Luisport


Very close to Beira third largest city in Mozambique siren2 worst winds will hit them.Did you notice that this city lays near some kind of bay?That will increase maximum storm surge siren2
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03/12/2019 05:33 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
 Quoting: Luisport


Very close to Beira third largest city in Mozambique siren2 worst winds will hit them.Did you notice that this city lays near some kind of bay?That will increase maximum storm surge siren2
 Quoting: Kek the Winged Hussar


Yes i know Mozambique. Beira port is one of the most important of the country... too sad!
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03/12/2019 05:35 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Not only the wind... huge storm surge... 20ft predicted in Beira city!

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Last Edited by Luisport on 03/12/2019 05:36 PM
Luisport

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
scary that RSMC has a near 130 knot landfall and JTWC has 115 knots instead.
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
At places, pretty near the coast near Beira, MPI has risen to over 150 knots. The spot with lowering to Cat 3 is spurious, caused by Idai itself.
Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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03/12/2019 06:14 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
At places, pretty near the coast near Beira, MPI has risen to over 150 knots. The spot with lowering to Cat 3 is spurious, caused by Idai itself.
 Quoting: Luisport


#CycloneIDAI Advisory Number 8
Max Winds: 115mph
Strength: C3
MSLP: 961mb
#Idai expected to become a Category 4 tropical cyclone again by Wednesday morning, as the cyclone expected to move south-southwest across the Mozambique Channel, just offshore the West Madagascar.

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Where did you read about 150 knots wind?Is it or something else .Wow cat 5 possible
Luisport

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03/12/2019 06:21 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
At places, pretty near the coast near Beira, MPI has risen to over 150 knots. The spot with lowering to Cat 3 is spurious, caused by Idai itself.
 Quoting: Luisport


#CycloneIDAI Advisory Number 8
Max Winds: 115mph
Strength: C3
MSLP: 961mb
#Idai expected to become a Category 4 tropical cyclone again by Wednesday morning, as the cyclone expected to move south-southwest across the Mozambique Channel, just offshore the West Madagascar.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Where did you read about 150 knots wind?Is it or something else .Wow cat 5 possible
 Quoting: Kek the Winged Hussar


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Luisport

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03/12/2019 06:22 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
BAD, VERY VERY BAD!!!

Beira: Mozambique's second largest city is sinking
Residents despair as crops sink and houses fall in city just above sea level, as planners develop ways to solve crisis.
by Andrew Mambondiyani
"...Tropical cyclones build up over the Indian Ocean, sending in water that pummels coastal cities such as Beira and Maputo, Mozambique's largest city.
Beira's increasing population and poor infrastructure mean the city is vulnerable to flood damage; some residential areas lie below sea-level.
The 19th-century city was designed to host no more than 30,000 people, but today more than 500,000 people live in Beira. Most struggle in poverty." From:
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03/12/2019 06:27 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Where the hell is mozambeak?
Luisport

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03/12/2019 06:30 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Where the hell is mozambeak?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Indic african coast
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03/12/2019 06:34 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Where the hell is mozambeak?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Indic african coast
 Quoting: Luisport


OK, but why are we discussing it. They've had stroms before and they will again. It won't snow there, so it's just a rain and windstrom. It's raining here too.

I'm sure they'll do OK.
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03/12/2019 06:37 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Where the hell is mozambeak?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Indic african coast
 Quoting: Luisport


OK, but why are we discussing it. They've had stroms before and they will again. It won't snow there, so it's just a rain and windstrom. It's raining here too.

I'm sure they'll do OK.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Already 40+ deaths and will fall more than a year rain in few days + Cat 4+ winds and 20 foot storm surge... there will be thousands of deaths!
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03/12/2019 07:02 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Where the hell is mozambeak?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Indic african coast
 Quoting: Luisport


OK, but why are we discussing it. They've had stroms before and they will again. It won't snow there, so it's just a rain and windstrom. It's raining here too.

I'm sure they'll do OK.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Already 40+ deaths and will fall more than a year rain in few days + Cat 4+ winds and 20 foot storm surge... there will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm confused here. If you stay out of the gullies and are above the storm surge, you'll get wet and you might get a cold, but what are you dying from? They must have some kind of shelter, even if it's just hanging out on the lee side of a rock. That and a tarp wrapped around you should keep you alive until the wind and rain stop happening. Anyone can live for a few days without food.
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
...


Indic african coast
 Quoting: Luisport


OK, but why are we discussing it. They've had stroms before and they will again. It won't snow there, so it's just a rain and windstrom. It's raining here too.

I'm sure they'll do OK.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Already 40+ deaths and will fall more than a year rain in few days + Cat 4+ winds and 20 foot storm surge... there will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm confused here. If you stay out of the gullies and are above the storm surge, you'll get wet and you might get a cold, but what are you dying from? They must have some kind of shelter, even if it's just hanging out on the lee side of a rock. That and a tarp wrapped around you should keep you alive until the wind and rain stop happening. Anyone can live for a few days without food.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


no shelters, no warnings...
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03/12/2019 07:22 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
...


OK, but why are we discussing it. They've had stroms before and they will again. It won't snow there, so it's just a rain and windstrom. It's raining here too.

I'm sure they'll do OK.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Already 40+ deaths and will fall more than a year rain in few days + Cat 4+ winds and 20 foot storm surge... there will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm confused here. If you stay out of the gullies and are above the storm surge, you'll get wet and you might get a cold, but what are you dying from? They must have some kind of shelter, even if it's just hanging out on the lee side of a rock. That and a tarp wrapped around you should keep you alive until the wind and rain stop happening. Anyone can live for a few days without food.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


no shelters, no warnings...
 Quoting: Luisport


It's sad that they died, but I'd think they could hold on to a tree or something for a day or two. They must have buildings there.
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03/12/2019 07:24 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
...


Already 40+ deaths and will fall more than a year rain in few days + Cat 4+ winds and 20 foot storm surge... there will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm confused here. If you stay out of the gullies and are above the storm surge, you'll get wet and you might get a cold, but what are you dying from? They must have some kind of shelter, even if it's just hanging out on the lee side of a rock. That and a tarp wrapped around you should keep you alive until the wind and rain stop happening. Anyone can live for a few days without food.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


no shelters, no warnings...
 Quoting: Luisport


It's sad that they died, but I'd think they could hold on to a tree or something for a day or two. They must have buildings there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Cat4+ winds... you don't get it?
UH...
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03/12/2019 07:25 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
HEY...?!

IM GONNA PREDICT THAT THIS ENDS UP SPREADIN' DAT EBOLA-OBOLO SHIT ALL OVUH...AFRICAUH...AND PERHAPS DUH MHIDDLE EAST TOO...!

IS THIS AREA AND THAT CITY 3RD LARGEST...IN POSSESSION OF ANY POSS. EBOLA-OBAMA PATIENTS....?...

SERIOUSLY...IN SPITE OF MY GHRAHAMMER-UR!
Luisport

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03/12/2019 07:26 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
HEY...?!

IM GONNA PREDICT THAT THIS ENDS UP SPREADIN' DAT EBOLA-OBOLO SHIT ALL OVUH...AFRICAUH...AND PERHAPS DUH MHIDDLE EAST TOO...!

IS THIS AREA AND THAT CITY 3RD LARGEST...IN POSSESSION OF ANY POSS. EBOLA-OBAMA PATIENTS....?...

SERIOUSLY...IN SPITE OF MY GHRAHAMMER-UR!
 Quoting: UH... 76369567


no ebola in Mozambique...
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03/12/2019 07:33 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
...


I'm confused here. If you stay out of the gullies and are above the storm surge, you'll get wet and you might get a cold, but what are you dying from? They must have some kind of shelter, even if it's just hanging out on the lee side of a rock. That and a tarp wrapped around you should keep you alive until the wind and rain stop happening. Anyone can live for a few days without food.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


no shelters, no warnings...
 Quoting: Luisport


It's sad that they died, but I'd think they could hold on to a tree or something for a day or two. They must have buildings there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77335283


Cat4+ winds... you don't get it?
 Quoting: Luisport


I think cat 4 is less than 150mph. If you're on the ground and dig in a bit, you'd glue yourself to the ground with the mud. Hold onto a tree or shrub and you'll probably survive. Crawl to the leeward side of a hill if possible.
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 - 10:00 AM RET March 13 2019
CYCLONE TROPICAL IDAI (11-20182019)
=========================================================
North Northwest of Europa island
East of Mozambique

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Idai (970 hPa) located at 19.4S 39.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
50 nm radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
70 nm radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
90 nm radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 nm radius from the center, extending up to 140 nm in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.6S 38.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.7S 36.8E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
36 HRS 19.7S 35.5E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.4S 34.0E - 60 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
=========================
Over the last six hours, Idai cloud pattern keep on fluctuating due to the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The former small eye was still visible earlier but it has disappeared since. Microwave imagery confirm the deterioration of the inner core and the building of the outer eyewall, 30 nm away from the center. Given last night ASCAT data and recent microwave data, maximal winds are likely in the outer eyewall. Also the 16011545 buoy measured 985hpa 30 nm south of the center at 0000z.

Idai's track began to bend westwards under the influence of a subtropical ridge located to the southwest of the system. The confidence in the track forecast remains good. On this track, Idai should probably (3 chances out of 4) landfall in the evening or the night from Thursday to Friday in a 100km area around Beira. The exact timing is still uncertain.

Although environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive and able to support an intense system until landfall, the intensity forecast remains challenging due to the ongoing inner core processes. Indeed, the current eyewall replacement cycle is not finished and a second one might start before the landfall. The current forecast do not take into account such a scenario and show a deepening up to the coastline.

Idai is a very dangerous system and should remain so at landfall. The inhabitants of the threatened area are urged to follow official recommendations and monitor the information issued by the Mozambican national weather service. Dangerous storm surge, exceeding 3 meters is likely at the point of landfall and to its south. On the current forecast track, storm surge in the Beira area may reach 2.50 meters and more in the Pungwe river mouth (caution: this value does not take into account the tide and the sea level rise due to the cyclonic swell).