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Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert

 
Luisport

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03/13/2019 06:25 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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With tropical Cyclone #IDAI expected to landfall in the next two days, #INGC issued yesterday a #redalert for the central provinces of Sofala, Manica, Zambézia, and Tete, already hit by #MozambiqueFloods2019. It appeals for US$18 million to assist the affected populations.
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03/13/2019 06:27 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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Luisport

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03/13/2019 07:22 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Tropical cyclone #Idai is now at Cat 2 equivalent, strengthening up to low Cat 4 as heads to landfall in #Mozambique Thurs night. Idai is a “very dangerous system," says WMO specialized centre in La Reunion. Storm surge likely to exceed 3 m at landfall
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2019 08:31 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Idai now is finishing its ERC, and a larger, better defined eye began to appear in satellite imagery [link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport

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03/13/2019 09:06 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Parts of Mozambique have today to evacuate as Cyclone Idai hits hard

People in low-lying areas where the cyclone is expected to hit have been instructed to evacuate the area by Wednesday afternoon. This comes after Weather Today reported that rain wass expected to be between 400 and 900 millimetres, reports Lowvelder. Lodges and local fishermen have been warned to secure their boats and fishing gear as the tide surges might damage them. The main area affected will be Beira, but surrounding areas as far as down the coast as Vilanculos could be affected.
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03/13/2019 09:20 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
---- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2019 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 19:28:11 S Lon : 39:03:36 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 957.2mb/107.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : -2.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C
Luisport

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03/13/2019 09:21 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Tropical Cyclone #Idai will likely be the strongest TC to hit Mozambique since Eline in 2000 (115 kt). Unfortunate timing of ERC completion about a day before landfall means wind field will be both larger and stronger at the time of landfall. Environmental conditions are ideal.
Phillip J. Fry

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03/13/2019 09:23 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Loot early, Loot often! money
.

"Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it, in which case for the love of God. Don't not do it!"
Luisport

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03/13/2019 09:27 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Tropical Cyclone #Idai will likely be the strongest TC to hit Mozambique since Eline in 2000 (115 kt). Unfortunate timing of ERC completion about a day before landfall means wind field will be both larger and stronger at the time of landfall. Environmental conditions are ideal.

 Quoting: Luisport


Windfield expanding = larger system = larger circulation to pick up moisture to add even more rain = bad
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2019 09:53 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Cyclone Idai is exploding right now , large convective bursts seen on radar
Luisport

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03/13/2019 09:54 AM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2019 11:03 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Cyclone #Idai has completed its eyewall replacement. Heading straight for the city of Beira. Expect catastrophic damage from wind and tidal surge. Hope Mozambique is conducting a massive evacuation [link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]
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03/13/2019 11:25 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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DOOM IS ON
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03/13/2019 11:42 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Thread: Uh oh .Estimated surge near Beira Mozambique 7-8 m.Most of the city will be wiped out by cyclone surge
Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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03/13/2019 11:53 AM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Close up of the new large eye of Idai. Notice the intense convection on the left side of the eyewall, a sign that intensification is beginning. #cyclone #idai [link to mobile.twitter.com (secure)]
Ostria1

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03/13/2019 12:03 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Floods kills at least 66 in Mozambique ahead of tropical cyclone

Maputo — At least 66 people have been killed and 141,000 affected after heavy rains deluged central and northern Mozambique, the government says as it appeals for funds to manage the crisis.

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert

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Ostria
Luisport

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03/13/2019 12:52 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Deadliest Weather Disaster of 2019: Category 2 Idai Kills 111 in Africa; 20-Foot Storm Tide Possible

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Luisport

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03/13/2019 12:53 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
VERY VERY BAD!!!

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Last Edited by Luisport on 03/13/2019 12:54 PM
Luisport

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03/13/2019 02:53 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
SSD

20190313 | 1730 | SW-IND | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | -19.6 | -38.6 | 927 mb
| 115 kt | 18S | IDAI | 1 | JF

Oooof

Meanwhile ADT

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2019 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 19:30:00 S Lon : 38:37:11 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 955.0mb/109.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 5.5

The timing of the EWRC and restrengthening now couldn't be much worse. It looks like this could be close to a worst case scenario for the people in Beira...
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Luisport

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03/13/2019 03:03 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
This is a dire sight. Manual Dvorak analysis plus estimates from CIMSS and microwave imagery support an intensity around 115kt, and all indications are Idai is still intensifying. JTWC's assessment of 90kt is nonsense.
Luisport

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03/13/2019 03:28 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
AS THE ERC IS NOW OVER, IDAI HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE THIS
EVENING (EYE DIAMETER LARGER THAN 45 NM IN EIR IMAGERY). DUE TO THE
LARGE EYE CONSTRAINT IN THE DVORAK METHOD (NO POSITIVE E-NUMBER
ADJUSTMENT), STRONG DISCREPANCIES APPEAR ON THE RAW DT-NUMBER,
PENDING ON APPLYING OR NOT THE LARGE EYE CONSTRAINT (DT AT 5.5 OR 6.5).
THEREFORE, THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS SET AT 6.0 AND IS BASED ON PT-NUMBER. THE
FINAL INTENSITY AT 100 KT COME ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ADT
AT 95 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AND THE LATEST SATCON AT 105 KT (10-MIN WINDS).
Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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03/13/2019 03:33 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Cyclone #Idai looking powerful as it moves toward the Mozambique coast in east Africa. Eye has cleared out and warmed substantially today.

Automated technique estimates satellite IR eye temperature warmed from -2C to +17C (12-18Z). Indication of better organization.
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Luisport

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03/13/2019 03:36 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21 - 22:00 PM RET March 13 2019
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE IDAI (11-20182019)
=========================================================
East of Mozambique

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Idai (945 hPa) located at 19.6S 38.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
45 nm radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 nm radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
95 nm radius from the center, extending up to 100 nm in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 nm radius from the center, extending up to 140 nm in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.8S 37.0E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.8S 35.3E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.2S 32.2E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
=========================
As the eyewall replacement cycle is now over, Idai has developed a well defined large eye this evening (eye diameter larger than 45 nm in enhanced infrared imagery). Due to the large eye constraint in the dvorak method (no positive e-number adjustment), strong discrepancies appear on the raw Dvorak T-number, pending on applying or not the large eye constraint (DT at 5.5 or 6.5). Therefore, the final t-number is set at 6.0 and is based on pt-number. The final intensity at 100 knots come also in good agreement between the ADT at 95 knots (10-min winds) and the latest SATCON at 105 knots (10-min winds).

Idai's track is still on a general westwards track under the influence of a subtropical ridge located to the south-west of the system. This general trend should continue until landfall with some possible slight acceleration of the forward motion. The confidence in the track forecast is very good, with low dispersion. On this track, Idai should very probably landfall during the evening or the night from Thursday to Friday in a 100km area around Beira.

On infrared imagery, Idai tends to look like an annular cyclone which mean that the system should be rather steady in strength until landfall.

Idai is an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone and should remain so at landfall. The inhabitants of the threatened area are urged to follow official recommendations and monitor the information issued by the Mozambican National Weather Service.

There is still enough uncertainty on the final track to talk about a precise storm surge value at Beira. Having said that, an extremely dangerous storm surge, exceeding 3-4 meters is very likely south of the landfall point and potentially more in the Pungwe river mouth if the maximum of storm surge hit that place. If the current track is confirmed, this could be a worst case scenario for Beira.
Luisport

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03/13/2019 03:37 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
"Tropical cyclone Idai poses a grave threat to life in the area and
could be the most powerful cyclone to strike Mozambique since 2000.
In terms of insurance and reinsurance exposure, this is likely to be
relatively limited given low penetration rates in the region, although
there are some commercial installations on this coastline that may have
more robust coverage in place.
Hence, cyclone Idai is likely to once again demonstrate the issue of
underinsurance and the need for greater penetration to be achieved.
Of course, the African Risk Capacity (ARC) has a model for tropical
cyclones and the ability to cover countries at the sovereign level
against this peril. But so far, we believe that no African countries
have taken up this coverage option with ARC."
Luisport

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03/13/2019 03:38 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
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HO LEE FUKK

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03/13/2019 03:44 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
HOW MANY AFRICANS CAN SWIM.....???drevil
Luisport

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03/13/2019 03:50 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Upgraded to Cat 4.
Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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03/13/2019 04:13 PM
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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Upgraded to Cat 4.
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow.Do you have link to this information? Shocked to see there so little interest in this storm in media.I bet they will be interested after storm kills thousands.
Luisport

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03/13/2019 04:34 PM

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Re: Cyclone Idai cat 3 made landfall in Mozambique.Thousands of deaths feared.Zimbabwe will open its dams.Red alert
Upgraded to Cat 4.
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow.Do you have link to this information? Shocked to see there so little interest in this storm in media.I bet they will be interested after storm kills thousands.
 Quoting: Kek the Winged Hussar


It's Cat 4 (115 knots)