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Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!

 
Luisport

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03/18/2019 04:13 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
"Severe tropical cyclone Trevor continues to develop, with an eye evident on IR
imagery for the past several hours. Radar and recent microwave imagery depict a
very compact inner convective core [RMW - 10 nautical miles or less]."

Whoa. Some significant likelihood of major intensification before landfall in Cape York. Thankfully, the area is sparsely populated and >64kt wind field is small, but there are still people who will have to endure this storm, unfortunately.
Luisport

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03/18/2019 04:21 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
ACTF has Trevor from 55kt @ 1200Z to 90kt @ 1800Z. 35kt increase in 6 hours. Crazy RI.
Luisport

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03/18/2019 04:25 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Kek the Winged Hussar  (OP)

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03/18/2019 04:27 PM
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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
#CycloneTrevor Advisory Number 7
Max Winds: 105mph
Strength: C2
MSLP: 967mb
Trevor has intensified into a Category 4 tropical cyclone equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the BOM scale. Landfall expected this evening...

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Luisport

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03/18/2019 04:35 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Luisport

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03/18/2019 04:40 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Luisport

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03/18/2019 06:37 PM

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Wondering Mind

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03/18/2019 06:38 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
deviltard
The most precious things are the simple things in life, always present in the simplest of minds.
Luisport

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03/18/2019 06:42 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
And this shows a CAT 5
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Luisport

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03/18/2019 06:42 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
And this shows a CAT 5
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Luisport

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03/18/2019 06:44 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Luisport

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03/18/2019 06:46 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
And this shows a CAT 5
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 Quoting: Luisport


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siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2

Last Edited by Luisport on 03/18/2019 06:46 PM
Luisport

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03/18/2019 06:55 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Luisport

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03/18/2019 07:06 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
JTWC have Trevor at 115kts prior to landfall, which is still enough for Cat 5 on the Australian/Fiji scale (107kts+)

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Luisport

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03/19/2019 05:35 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17 - 4:55 PM EST March 19 2019
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TREVOR, CATEGORY THREE (20U)
=============================================================​

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor, Category Three (967 hPa) located at 13.0S 143.6E or 40 kilometers southeast of Lockhart River and 190 kilometers east southeast of Weipa has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
15 nm from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
25 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
20 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant
20 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===================
50 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is currently crossing the coast just south of Lockhart River as a strong category 3 system.

The cyclone will weaken as it crosses the northern Peninsula tonight and Wednesday, but is expected to remain a category 1 cyclone until it enters the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday. It is expected to re-intensify rapidly once it enters the Gulf of Carpentaria and track towards the Northern Territory.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of the cyclone, with extreme gusts up to 220 km/h (110 knots), is making landfall to the south of Lockhart River.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h (70 knots) are expected between Cape Grenville and Coen. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS will move some way inland with the cyclone tonight.

GALES, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h (50 knots), are expected in coastal areas between Orford Ness and Cape Melville during the rest of today and tonight. These GALES are expected to extend inland over the Peninsula overnight and on Wednesday as the cyclone moves inland to include areas between Cape York and Pormpuraaw during Wednesday.

A STORM TIDE is expected between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, including Princess Charlotte Bay. During Wednesday, a STORM TIDE is also expected between Cape Keerweer and Mapoon on the western Peninsula Coast. LARGE WAVES may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in these areas are likely to be affected by flooding and should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are also expected around the Wednesday morning high tide for the far northeast Queensland coast, north of Port Douglas.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast across far north Queensland for the remainder of today, tonight and continuing over the next few days. A Flood Warning is current for the Daintree and Mossman rivers as well as a broader Flood Watch for catchments north of Innisfail to Kowanyama.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS 13.1S 142.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 13.1S 141.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 13.1S 140.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.9S 138.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
========================
Severe tropical cyclone Trevor is making landfall on the far north Queensland's coast near Lockhart River. The circulation developed rapidly in the last 36 hours, then temporarily weakened earlier today when the eye filled in, but in the few hours prior to landfall it has experienced a burst in deep convection indicating renewed intensification.

Intensity of 85 kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=5.0 based on time averaged embedded center and eye pattern though some fluctuations in DT numbers in the past six hours. ADT estimates have risen sharply to CI=5.3, and hence SATCON has responded with intensity at 90kn [corrected to 10 min. mean].

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS
====================================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in force from Orford Ness to Cape Melville, including Lockhart River and Coen, and Pormpuraaw to Cape York, including Weipa and Aurukun in Queensland
Luisport

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03/19/2019 05:43 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!

@severeweatherEU
Seguir Seguir @severeweatherEU
Mais
*Tropical* CAT3 Tropical Cyclone Trevor is tracking towards an imminent landfall south of Lockhart River, Queensland. It packs winds gusting up to 205 km/h and is expected to dump as much as 400 mm rainfall over the Cape York Peninsula. Images: NASA WorldView
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Assyrian King

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03/19/2019 06:39 AM
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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
They say it will hit at 220km/h

Bet you it will just end up being a normal storm.
THE STRENGTH OF GOD'S HAND
Luisport

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03/19/2019 06:41 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
They say it will hit at 220km/h

Bet you it will just end up being a normal storm.
 Quoting: Assyrian King


No it will be a nasty one.
Luisport

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03/19/2019 07:10 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!

@wxcharts
6 minHá 6 minutos
Mais
ECMWF and GEFS cyclone tracks for #Veronica are rather alarming. Still a bit of time to go but landfall of two major cyclones (potentially within 24 hours of each other) is actually a possibility.
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Luisport

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03/19/2019 07:19 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
Met Office Storms
@metofficestorms
Tropical Cyclone #Trevor has made landfall over a sparsely populated area of the Cape York peninsula of #Queensland, #Australia. The cyclone is expected to cross the peninsula and restrengthen in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Luisport

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03/19/2019 07:25 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2019 07:39 AM
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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
Tropical low over SE #PapuaNewGuinea will enter the Coral Sea on Sunday and can strengthen to a cyclone early next week. Models coming into better agreement on system impacting northern #Queensland, #Australia later next week

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[link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] 912 hpa !
 Quoting: Kek the Winged Hussar


The models said the last cyclone would hit south east Queensland, Brisbane area, never even came close.

I doubt this one will hit either and if it does that area is sparsely populated anyway.
 Quoting: TassieLurker


At least 20 people live in that whole area!!

ahhh
Luisport

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03/19/2019 07:40 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
Jason Nicholls
✔
@jnmet
Tropical low 19U off NW #Australia will become TC #Veronica by Thursday and may impact the #Pilabara coast of Western Australia as a severe TC this weekend. Veronica could cause problems for natural gas and oil production along the Pilbara coast.
Luisport

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03/19/2019 12:19 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Luisport

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03/19/2019 01:53 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS TC 20P TRACKS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. TC 20P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 20P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 20P WILLEMERGE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
Luisport

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03/19/2019 03:34 PM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
Met Office Storms
@metofficestorms
Tropical Cyclone #Veronica has formed northwest of #Australia. Expected to become very strong and may threaten land in several days time.
Luisport

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03/21/2019 09:40 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
And the Himawari loop on both; Australia is getting another shot of rain from another feature on the SW coast as well:

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Luisport

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03/21/2019 09:58 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!
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Luisport

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03/21/2019 10:07 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!


But the thing is it's not forecast to stall and linger for days like Harvey or Florence. Those 68.8 inches are gonna drop from Sunday - Monday according to the Euro.
Luisport

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03/21/2019 10:10 AM

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Re: Aussies attention.Very powerful cyclone may hit your country next week! Models show 912 hpa storm!


But the thing is it's not forecast to stall and linger for days like Harvey or Florence. Those 68.8 inches are gonna drop from Sunday - Monday according to the Euro.
 Quoting: Luisport


Pay close atention to this! It's just apocalyptic!!!

siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2

Last Edited by Luisport on 03/21/2019 10:12 AM