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Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/25/2019 08:55 PM
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Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
On Friday afternoon, the yield curve inverted, which, if you’re a halfway normal person, sounds extremely boring, but it sent the financial press into a tizzy.

CNBC reported on a Morgan Stanley client note urging customers to “get defensive” with their investments due to a “key indicator of an economic recession.” A separate, not-so-reassuring CNBC segment over the weekend featured a key official from the Bank of Singapore urging, “Don’t panic over yield curve inversion yet.” But when is the right time to panic? James Mackintosh’s investing column at the Wall Street Journal led with the observation that “the market’s most reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red,” while Simon Moore at Forbes was more precise, pegging the risk of recession at exactly 30 percent.

This swiftly got pushed out of the mainstream news cycle by breathless speculation about Robert Mueller’s report on Trump and Russia, then by the summary of the report itself, but it continues to be a topic in financial media. And, realistically, you are more likely to have your life affected by the possibly looming recession than by Russian hackers.

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Anonymous Coward
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03/25/2019 10:59 PM
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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
This is not a good sign.


For economists and investors, it’s a loud warning about the economy’s outlook. One portfolio manager called the inverted yield curve a “harbinger of doom.” It has a scarily accurate track record of predicting economic recessions, which in past decades have arrived six months to two years after an inversion.


Thread: An Inverted Yield Curve, a Reliable Predictor of Recessions, Has the Stock Market Spooked
Jake

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03/25/2019 11:03 PM

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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
actually the yield curve is flat not inverted and its

because Europe's economy is flatlining

And the great news is in a fox business news poll from

today 61% of Americans feel the economy is doing great


flip Brics

Last Edited by Jake on 03/25/2019 11:03 PM
Jake

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03/25/2019 11:04 PM

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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
Brics the giant nothingburger
Anonymous Coward
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03/25/2019 11:10 PM
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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
actually the yield curve is flat not inverted and its

because Europe's economy is flatlining

And the great news is in a fox business news poll from

today 61% of Americans feel the economy is doing great


:fli Brics
 Quoting: Jake


Actually, you're wrong. Again.



The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note on Friday dipped below the yield on the 3-month paper. It was the first time since mid-2007 that the yield curve — which plots bond yields from shortest maturity to highest and is considered a barometer of economic sentiment — inverted.

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Anonymous Coward
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03/25/2019 11:11 PM
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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
GLP EFFECT PLEASE. hidingafro
Anonymous Coward
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03/25/2019 11:17 PM
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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
actually the yield curve is flat not inverted and its

because Europe's economy is flatlining

And the great news is in a fox business news poll from

today 61% of Americans feel the economy is doing great


flip Brics
 Quoting: Jake


You should go pump your fake polls and jake news in another thread.

The yield curve *did* invert last week, for the first time since before the great recession ion 2008. An invested yield curve has correctly predicted each of the recessions for the last 60 years.

This is a serious indicator that should not be taken lightly.
Anonymous Coward
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03/26/2019 01:45 AM
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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
actually the yield curve is flat not inverted and its

because Europe's economy is flatlining

And the great news is in a fox business news poll from

today 61% of Americans feel the economy is doing great


flip Brics
 Quoting: Jake


You should go pump your fake polls and jake news in another thread.

The yield curve *did* invert last week, for the first time since before the great recession ion 2008. An invested yield curve has correctly predicted each of the recessions for the last 60 years.

This is a serious indicator that should not be taken lightly.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72286785


'serious indicator'

Fire in the coal bunker is not an indicator of trouble, it is trouble.
Anonymous Coward
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03/28/2019 12:03 AM
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Re: Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic
Thread: Apocalyptic Bond Collapse Continues - SEVERE ECONOMIC DEPRESSION LOOMS...