What a weird election.

No single party got the magical 20% of the votes which would have made them almost automatically the party that gets the Prime Ministership and forms the next government.

Now the top three parties are within one point: the Social Democrats, Finns Party and the National Coalition Party.

The Center Party collapsed, losing 18 seats, which was no surprise. The royally screwed up while leading the previous government.

The Social Democrats, in spite of having sat in the opposition, managed to win only a meager six seats. They now have 40 seats and this can be considered almost a loss, even though they are the biggest party. They were in the opposition when the sitting government fucked up and collapsed, and still they couldn't manage to win more votes. A pathetic show.

The Finns Party gained only one seat, but is now the second largest party with 39 seats.

The Greens and the Left Alliance made the most gains in these elections, but they remain medium sized parties.

The Finnish government is a coalition government, usually made up from 3-6 parties. Unlike in US, the winner does NOT take all. The next step is for someone (usually the winner) to start negotiations with all the other parties on under what conditions they would be willing to form a coalition government. They key word is negotiations. Even if your party wins a landslide victory, you do not set all the terms. You always need to compromise to get others on board.

Now with the top three parties within one single point, it is unclear who will be the leader. Even if that is resolved quickly, the negotiations will probably take longer than usual. All the other parties will find the Finns Party agenda unacceptable. The National Coalition Party was in the previous government and their economic agenda is diametrically opposite to that of the Social Democrats. I doubt they and Social Democrats can find a compromise.

A coalition between National Coalition Party, the Finns Party and a minor right-leaning party (e.g. the party representing Swedish-speaking Finns) might make a majority government. That would, however, require that the Finns Party will have to compromise on its immigration and climate agenda, and I find it unlikely.

My bet today would be: a coalition government of the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Alliance. That would make a solid and strongly left-leaning majority government. It's not what I want, but that's what's likely.