Finnish Parliamentary Election - April 14th, 2019 - Can the Finns Party Take the Top Spot?

Just came back from voting. Beautiful spring day today. Early voting results coming in three hours...

What a weird election.

No single party got the magical 20% of the votes which would have made them almost automatically the party that gets the Prime Ministership and forms the next government.

Now the top three parties are within one point: the Social Democrats, Finns Party and the National Coalition Party.

The Center Party collapsed, losing 18 seats, which was no surprise. The royally screwed up while leading the previous government.

The Social Democrats, in spite of having sat in the opposition, managed to win only a meager six seats. They now have 40 seats and this can be considered almost a loss, even though they are the biggest party. They were in the opposition when the sitting government fucked up and collapsed, and still they couldn't manage to win more votes. A pathetic show.

The Finns Party gained only one seat, but is now the second largest party with 39 seats.

The Greens and the Left Alliance made the most gains in these elections, but they remain medium sized parties.

The Finnish government is a coalition government, usually made up from 3-6 parties. Unlike in US, the winner does NOT take all. The next step is for someone (usually the winner) to start negotiations with all the other parties on under what conditions they would be willing to form a coalition government. They key word is negotiations. Even if your party wins a landslide victory, you do not set all the terms. You always need to compromise to get others on board.

Now with the top three parties within one single point, it is unclear who will be the leader. Even if that is resolved quickly, the negotiations will probably take longer than usual. All the other parties will find the Finns Party agenda unacceptable. The National Coalition Party was in the previous government and their economic agenda is diametrically opposite to that of the Social Democrats. I doubt they and Social Democrats can find a compromise.

A coalition between National Coalition Party, the Finns Party and a minor right-leaning party (e.g. the party representing Swedish-speaking Finns) might make a majority government. That would, however, require that the Finns Party will have to compromise on its immigration and climate agenda, and I find it unlikely.

My bet today would be: a coalition government of the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Alliance. That would make a solid and strongly left-leaning majority government. It's not what I want, but that's what's likely.

"Finland's most famous tranny" didn't get elected.

[link to www.iltalehti.fi (secure)]

(in Finnish, but the photo speaks for itself)

I don't underdrand what you say about the other parties refusing to work with the Finns Party (nationalist party?. I thought the Finns Party was in your previous coalition government that collapsed.

Here they are blocked from any government.

Yes, the nationalists were in the last governing coalition, but the party split in two a few years ago. The more moderate members left and formed their own party that got SQUISHED in the yesterday's election (no representatives elected). Those who remained wanted to pursue a more radical agenda, and they got 39 representatives.

The other parties were willing to work with the moderates, but I don't think they will work with the Finns Party because there is no room to compromise on the climate and immigration agendas. The other parties are committed to climate change and globalism, whereas the Finns Party can't backtrack that much on what they promised during the campaign. If they do, they'll go extinct the same way as the moderate wing did.

Time to send more 3rd World muslims to Finland, be happy with the socialist left wing government.

Actually, I miscalculated. The Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Alliance cannot form a majority government. They've got 76 seats, and for majority you need at least 101. Damn, it's going to be tricky.

Another major trend was the number of elected women (92 women out of 200 representatives), and the significant number of new first-term representatives. Much of the old guard either didn't run or failed to get elected.

Congratulations! you were the Vote King!

Did you vote for Jussi Halla-Aho/yourself?

Maybe the seasoned top politicians know that doom is coming and are retiring to their bunkers.