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I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.

 
Prayandprepare000
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I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Greetings all.

Scott Cahill is at Watershed Services of Ohio, along with his wife who is also an expert in dam safety. He has three decades of dam safety teaching and experience under his belt.

[link to www.linkedin.com (secure)]

The phone number is online, so I called to ask about the spillway. I never expected a call back, but within a few hours he and his wife called me back. I asked him several questions and we spoke for over half an hour.

I want to add my general impression of the man. He is very gracious and kind and answered every question, and is not by any means a "doomer", but a realistic sounding person who wants to hope for the best and cares about lives below a troubled dam. He said I could repeat anything he said- ie, not worried about a lawsuit- but there are some things I won't repeat in case I didn't remember the exact details perfectly and I don't want to misquote him.

He gave me the disclaimer that he has not been out on the dam this spring, nor party to DWR secret information. He does have some CA contacts inc. engineers who have told him things the past couple years, but are afraid to go public because they will lose their jobs.

The new billion dollar spillway has failed. Too much water is coming up from underneath. They bolted it down to the underlying rock, but it had been bolted down in 2017 and we saw what happened. They are afraid to use it now lest a slab be pushed up from the water pressure. They are hoping that there is no more major rain, and the Hyatt Power Plant discharge (approx 10,000 cfs) can handle the snow melt enough to not make the spillway necessary this year.

The new emergency spillway would fail from erosion cutback, same as last time. No question. They need excess water to go down the primary spillway, not the emergency spillway.

I asked him, if the 2017 "canyon" did not cut back to the lake, and the spillway failed again this year, could it cut back to the lake this time? He said maybe.

He said the information about the underlying rock and all the geology has been made a national security item, so the public is not to be told anything. I asked about grouting the voids. He said that if the rains stop and they don't need to use the spillway, they could take maybe six months and try to grout all the voids where the water is moving underneath. I asked if they could definitely seal the places where water is moving and he said maybe.

Lots of maybes with this dam.

He told me that some years ago he was asked to be on a panel to assess the California dams. He did his investigation, wrote up a report of all the problems, and made recommendations. This what he does- dam safety. The panel report finally came out and they had eliminated every single thing he had written, and basically said the dams were fine.

I asked why- I mean, it is just so wrong- and he said CA is bankrupt and they don't want to face all the work that needs to be done on their dams.

Cahill said that in 2017 when the spillway broke and carved that nasty canyon in the hill, it was visually awful but not a threat to the dam itself. However, the gates are the big threat. He said they should not have tried to fix the spillway yet but made the gates the top priority the last two years. (all sorts of cracks).

I asked about Juan Brown ( Blancolirio). He said Juan was a good guy who started out reporting on the dam and flying his plane over, but he is a pilot and not a dam safety person. Juan is pretty much the same as DWR now when it comes to what you will hear presented. Cahill wasn't critical or bitter, (he knows they say nasty things about him at the Blancolirio site), but Juan believes what DWR says and DWR is not honest.

He then told me some possible insider knowledge about conflicts of interest and shady business dealings within the CA govt structure as it relates to dams. No surprise, and I think I'll let it go at that.

He said a hundred thousand people may have to die in a dam failure before CA does what has to be done.

He talked about the loss of Oroville dam to Central Valley agriculture and the S CA water supply. It would be disastrous.

He made a big effort to contact responsible persons and agencies about his concerns but nobody official writes or calls back.

If you pray to the Lord, you can pray for mercy that it doesn't rain and that when the water levels drop they can grout all the voids so well that there are no more water leaks. And that they fix the gates. Or else accept that this dam may fail and pray the people below can get out safely. I can't tell you how to pray, but it is not a good situation.

Thanks for reading.
CleverCreator

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04/15/2019 07:43 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Yep. Not exactly new info. Send them prayers.
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
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04/15/2019 07:45 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
You....................You mean the engineers were wrong ! ..........................................again !
CleverCreator

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04/15/2019 07:46 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
You....................You mean the engineers were wrong ! ..........................................again !
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76660192


No. They were told to lie.
See the good. Prepare for the bad. And enjoy right now.
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 07:47 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Thanks brah
Kerwinjr

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04/15/2019 07:52 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
They do this every time. No sooner do we have enough water to escape the drought then suddenly there's an "accident" and we lose all the gains.
Prayandprepare000  (OP)

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04/15/2019 08:15 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Yep. Not exactly new info. Send them prayers.
 Quoting: CleverCreator


Yes, nothing really new if you follow the thread over 1000 pages. But given the CA people here who might not follow that, I figured a heads up just in case might be good.

For that matter, anybody in the whole country who eats CA produce and nuts (probably everybody) might want to think about this if the dam fails, and stock up if it goes down.
HollyWho

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04/15/2019 08:17 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
bump
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 08:22 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Well I guess ppl didn't pray or they got turned down.

It's raining
FeedYourHead

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04/15/2019 08:24 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Greetings all.

Scott Cahill is at Watershed Services of Ohio, along with his wife who is also an expert in dam safety. He has three decades of dam safety teaching and experience under his belt.

[link to www.linkedin.com (secure)]

The phone number is online, so I called to ask about the spillway. I never expected a call back, but within a few hours he and his wife called me back. I asked him several questions and we spoke for over half an hour.

I want to add my general impression of the man. He is very gracious and kind and answered every question, and is not by any means a "doomer", but a realistic sounding person who wants to hope for the best and cares about lives below a troubled dam. He said I could repeat anything he said- ie, not worried about a lawsuit- but there are some things I won't repeat in case I didn't remember the exact details perfectly and I don't want to misquote him.

He gave me the disclaimer that he has not been out on the dam this spring, nor party to DWR secret information. He does have some CA contacts inc. engineers who have told him things the past couple years, but are afraid to go public because they will lose their jobs.

The new billion dollar spillway has failed. Too much water is coming up from underneath. They bolted it down to the underlying rock, but it had been bolted down in 2017 and we saw what happened. They are afraid to use it now lest a slab be pushed up from the water pressure. They are hoping that there is no more major rain, and the Hyatt Power Plant discharge (approx 10,000 cfs) can handle the snow melt enough to not make the spillway necessary this year.

The new emergency spillway would fail from erosion cutback, same as last time. No question. They need excess water to go down the primary spillway, not the emergency spillway.

I asked him, if the 2017 "canyon" did not cut back to the lake, and the spillway failed again this year, could it cut back to the lake this time? He said maybe.

He said the information about the underlying rock and all the geology has been made a national security item, so the public is not to be told anything. I asked about grouting the voids. He said that if the rains stop and they don't need to use the spillway, they could take maybe six months and try to grout all the voids where the water is moving underneath. I asked if they could definitely seal the places where water is moving and he said maybe.

Lots of maybes with this dam.

He told me that some years ago he was asked to be on a panel to assess the California dams. He did his investigation, wrote up a report of all the problems, and made recommendations. This what he does- dam safety. The panel report finally came out and they had eliminated every single thing he had written, and basically said the dams were fine.

I asked why- I mean, it is just so wrong- and he said CA is bankrupt and they don't want to face all the work that needs to be done on their dams.

Cahill said that in 2017 when the spillway broke and carved that nasty canyon in the hill, it was visually awful but not a threat to the dam itself. However, the gates are the big threat. He said they should not have tried to fix the spillway yet but made the gates the top priority the last two years. (all sorts of cracks).

I asked about Juan Brown ( Blancolirio). He said Juan was a good guy who started out reporting on the dam and flying his plane over, but he is a pilot and not a dam safety person. Juan is pretty much the same as DWR now when it comes to what you will hear presented. Cahill wasn't critical or bitter, (he knows they say nasty things about him at the Blancolirio site), but Juan believes what DWR says and DWR is not honest.

He then told me some possible insider knowledge about conflicts of interest and shady business dealings within the CA govt structure as it relates to dams. No surprise, and I think I'll let it go at that.

He said a hundred thousand people may have to die in a dam failure before CA does what has to be done.

He talked about the loss of Oroville dam to Central Valley agriculture and the S CA water supply. It would be disastrous.

He made a big effort to contact responsible persons and agencies about his concerns but nobody official writes or calls back.

If you pray to the Lord, you can pray for mercy that it doesn't rain and that when the water levels drop they can grout all the voids so well that there are no more water leaks. And that they fix the gates. Or else accept that this dam may fail and pray the people below can get out safely. I can't tell you how to pray, but it is not a good situation.

Thanks for reading.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Dang...incredible efforts you went to. I followed Mr. Cahill's discussion when the emergency was going on. It was obvious he knew his stuff. Very sobering information you have here but sadly as with everything these days it seems the truth will be ignored by those in place to do anything.
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 08:28 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
I like what you said, OP, and it is very informative, but I would have given more consideration to Cahill.

you could have just cost him his job.

repeating anything under 'national security' gets a person fired. quickly.

oh well. I know you had good intentions, but...
Jake

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04/15/2019 08:30 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
so don't move to california
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 08:37 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
sell your homes below the dam and go east, young man. Try to find one of the remaining vestiges of white conservative rule, and pray you die before the filthy infidel invaders take over.
Mental Case

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
He said a hundred thousand people may have to die in a dam failure before CA does what has to be done.

--------

That is californias "plan".

Let dams fail, people die...call it an "disaster"...and force all the other states (fed gov) to pay for their corrupt/bankrupt ass.

Billion $ fix on the spillway...my big hairy left one! The politico's threw half a million at it & stole the rest!
If I am going to be damned...I am going to be damned for who I really am!
Miss Bunny Swan

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04/15/2019 08:57 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Greetings all.

Scott Cahill is at Watershed Services of Ohio, along with his wife who is also an expert in dam safety. He has three decades of dam safety teaching and experience under his belt.

[link to www.linkedin.com (secure)]

The phone number is online, so I called to ask about the spillway. I never expected a call back, but within a few hours he and his wife called me back. I asked him several questions and we spoke for over half an hour.

I want to add my general impression of the man. He is very gracious and kind and answered every question, and is not by any means a "doomer", but a realistic sounding person who wants to hope for the best and cares about lives below a troubled dam. He said I could repeat anything he said- ie, not worried about a lawsuit- but there are some things I won't repeat in case I didn't remember the exact details perfectly and I don't want to misquote him.

He gave me the disclaimer that he has not been out on the dam this spring, nor party to DWR secret information. He does have some CA contacts inc. engineers who have told him things the past couple years, but are afraid to go public because they will lose their jobs.

The new billion dollar spillway has failed. Too much water is coming up from underneath. They bolted it down to the underlying rock, but it had been bolted down in 2017 and we saw what happened. They are afraid to use it now lest a slab be pushed up from the water pressure. They are hoping that there is no more major rain, and the Hyatt Power Plant discharge (approx 10,000 cfs) can handle the snow melt enough to not make the spillway necessary this year.

The new emergency spillway would fail from erosion cutback, same as last time. No question. They need excess water to go down the primary spillway, not the emergency spillway.

I asked him, if the 2017 "canyon" did not cut back to the lake, and the spillway failed again this year, could it cut back to the lake this time? He said maybe.

He said the information about the underlying rock and all the geology has been made a national security item, so the public is not to be told anything. I asked about grouting the voids. He said that if the rains stop and they don't need to use the spillway, they could take maybe six months and try to grout all the voids where the water is moving underneath. I asked if they could definitely seal the places where water is moving and he said maybe.

Lots of maybes with this dam.

He told me that some years ago he was asked to be on a panel to assess the California dams. He did his investigation, wrote up a report of all the problems, and made recommendations. This what he does- dam safety. The panel report finally came out and they had eliminated every single thing he had written, and basically said the dams were fine.

I asked why- I mean, it is just so wrong- and he said CA is bankrupt and they don't want to face all the work that needs to be done on their dams.

Cahill said that in 2017 when the spillway broke and carved that nasty canyon in the hill, it was visually awful but not a threat to the dam itself. However, the gates are the big threat. He said they should not have tried to fix the spillway yet but made the gates the top priority the last two years. (all sorts of cracks).

I asked about Juan Brown ( Blancolirio). He said Juan was a good guy who started out reporting on the dam and flying his plane over, but he is a pilot and not a dam safety person. Juan is pretty much the same as DWR now when it comes to what you will hear presented. Cahill wasn't critical or bitter, (he knows they say nasty things about him at the Blancolirio site), but Juan believes what DWR says and DWR is not honest.

He then told me some possible insider knowledge about conflicts of interest and shady business dealings within the CA govt structure as it relates to dams. No surprise, and I think I'll let it go at that.

He said a hundred thousand people may have to die in a dam failure before CA does what has to be done.

He talked about the loss of Oroville dam to Central Valley agriculture and the S CA water supply. It would be disastrous.

He made a big effort to contact responsible persons and agencies about his concerns but nobody official writes or calls back.

If you pray to the Lord, you can pray for mercy that it doesn't rain and that when the water levels drop they can grout all the voids so well that there are no more water leaks. And that they fix the gates. Or else accept that this dam may fail and pray the people below can get out safely. I can't tell you how to pray, but it is not a good situation.

Thanks for reading.
 Quoting: Prayandprepare000


Very interesting, thank you.
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 09:01 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
You can thank Bill Clinton and Al Gore for denying funds to western water agencies to evaluate the safety of all dams and appropriate funding for necessary repairs and maintenance.

Clearly they wanted this to happen, all part of the plan.
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Wow, a thread that's actually not anti-black, hebrew or muslim.

clappa
Embrace the cognitive dissonance.
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 09:07 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
You can thank Bill Clinton and Al Gore for denying funds to western water agencies to evaluate the safety of all dams and appropriate funding for necessary repairs and maintenance.

Clearly they wanted this to happen, all part of the plan.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76760905


I was just thinking how much that would have cost to fix
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2019 09:13 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
sell your homes below the dam and go east, young man. Try to find one of the remaining vestiges of white conservative rule, and pray you die before the filthy infidel invaders take over.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77557579


hesright
MrNatural

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04/15/2019 09:16 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
great post OP.

I followed this slow mo disaster the first time around 3 or 4 years ago, whenever it was.

Thanks for catching me up on what could unfold in 2019.
MrNatural
Prayandprepare000  (OP)

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
I like what you said, OP, and it is very informative, but I would have given more consideration to Cahill.

you could have just cost him his job.

repeating anything under 'national security' gets a person fired. quickly.

oh well. I know you had good intentions, but...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76869839


Thanks for the concern. I think it is all fine, I specifically asked him about posting what he said online and he said it was ok.

That national security issue he mentioned was the specific geology of the underlying bedrock, and any faults and fractures. As I recall some of that was available in 2017 but has since been redacted. I can't imagine he would risk his livelihood to tell me anything forbidden.
Prayandprepare000  (OP)

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04/15/2019 09:20 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
You can thank Bill Clinton and Al Gore for denying funds to western water agencies to evaluate the safety of all dams and appropriate funding for necessary repairs and maintenance.

Clearly they wanted this to happen, all part of the plan.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76760905


yeah, agenda 21 and all that jazz.

In a way, wanting to return CA to wilderness makes sense of the situation. It doesn't make sense that they could be so inept and shortsighted. But what do I know.
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
evil democrats/communists hate the red parts of California, basically the parts that would be destroyed ifv Oroville fails.
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Here is a video from them using it on 4/7/2019.





Actually looks fucking great. I never thought I'd say that but they got their shit in order.

I used to buy all the Cahill stuff too and still agree with him that bureaucracies will definitely kill us all.

What day did you talk to him OP?

How do you reconcile the "can't use the spillway" mantra with the video of them using the spillway last week???
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
No one outside of the retards living CA, give 2 fucks about the god damn dam, go the fuck away.
Prayandprepare000  (OP)

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04/15/2019 10:24 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Here is a video from them using it on 4/7/2019.





Actually looks fucking great. I never thought I'd say that but they got their shit in order.

I used to buy all the Cahill stuff too and still agree with him that bureaucracies will definitely kill us all.

What day did you talk to him OP?

How do you reconcile the "can't use the spillway" mantra with the video of them using the spillway last week???
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4466048


Talked to him earlier today.

They opened it up, looked good, ran it to 15,000 or maybe 20,000 cfs. Then they said they were going to run it to 60,000 cfs, last Friday if I remember right.

Then they shut it down. Full stop. No 60,000.

They saw something when they fired it up that worried them enough to stop it. Jack in VA on Twitter has some conjectures and pictures. Maybe the drains. They were out with flashlights at night over by what is being called the mystery spot. Cahill said it is water under the spillway, which I interpret to mean hydraulic lift starting to inch up the concrete. My guess only. Or water underneath starting to erode the foundation?

Yes, looked great, but that doesn't make rotten rock underneath great.

Hey, we will see. Better to be prepared for a failure, even if it holds up IMO.
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04/15/2019 10:25 PM
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
At this point I hope it collapses and kills thousands just to rub it in the faces of all the fake doomers wasting my time with this shit for years now.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Here is a video from them using it on 4/7/2019.





Actually looks fucking great. I never thought I'd say that but they got their shit in order.

I used to buy all the Cahill stuff too and still agree with him that bureaucracies will definitely kill us all.

What day did you talk to him OP?

How do you reconcile the "can't use the spillway" mantra with the video of them using the spillway last week???
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 4466048


Because they shut it down suddenly yesterday and the water level is rising.
derelekt1

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04/15/2019 10:25 PM

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
Wow, a thread that's actually not anti-black, hebrew or muslim.

clappa
 Quoting: Jungleboogie


And... what kind of dam expert does it have? A dam safety expert.
Vindicate me, God, and defend my cause against an ungodly nation; rescue me from the deceitful and unjust man.

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Re: I spoke to Scott Cahill, the dam safety guy, today, about the Oroville Dam Spillway situation. Not so good.
You can thank Bill Clinton and Al Gore for denying funds to western water agencies to evaluate the safety of all dams and appropriate funding for necessary repairs and maintenance.

Clearly they wanted this to happen, all part of the plan.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76760905


They've been out of office for nearly 20 years. Stop making excuses for Republicans who've done nothing.