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Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152

 
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2019 03:50 AM
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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Parts of Texas and Oklahoma (from about just east of OKC and Wichita Falls to just east of Lubbock) are now officially under a high risk (the most severe category) for Monday.

OKC, Norman, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, Abilene, and Lubbock are under a Moderate Risk(2nd worst) for Monday.

Amarillo and Midland are in Enhanced Risk, though very close to the Moderate Risk area. Slight Risk extends into southeastern Colorado. It's going to be a rough day for much of Oklahoma and much of North Texas and the Texas panhandle tomorrow.
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 04:34 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152

@severestudios
Seguir Seguir @severestudios
Mais
A very rare HIGH RISK of severe weather today. Tornado outbreak expected.
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Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 04:37 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Sam Lillo
@splillo
00z soundings give insight to why tomorrow is a big deal.

80F dew point at Corpus Christi, 4285J/kg MLCAPE at Brownsville (h/t @JakeMulholland1), 72kt 500mb wind at Albuquerque.

These values are among records in their own right, and will be converging tomorrow in N TX and OK.
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2019 04:39 AM
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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
This forecaster's final shift at WFO Lubbock is proving to be a
memorable one as our forecast area has its first High Risk for
severe weather since the evening of April 26, 2009.
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 04:40 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Posting the full SPC discussion because it's probably the most strongly worded text you'll ever read from them.

If HRRR trends are correct, the high risk will need to be expanded to include the OKC metro.We may need a 45% tornado contour later today too.

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected
today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition,
many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The
severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas
Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas into western Missouri and
western Arkansas. Additional severe storms with wind damage and hail
will be possible this afternoon from southeast New York into
southern and central New England.

...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into
Tonight...

...Southern and Central Plains...
An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly
eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90
knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the
system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the
Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and
eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very
favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and
evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.
The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight
period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and
property.

RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability
corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma
show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50
to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with
0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. This environment
should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km
storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from
about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early
evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better
focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong
tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet.

The current thinking concerning the details is that the first round
of severe storms will begin early as thunderstorms initiate in west
Texas and move northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid
to late morning. Initially, large hail will be the main threat but
as these storms mature, tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
and more dominant cells. Additional supercells with tornado
potential are expected to initiate near the warm front in western
and central Oklahoma. A tornado threat will transition to large hail
and wind damage as the storms move into Kansas to the north side of
the boundary. This first round of severe storms is forecast to move
northeastward, away from the warm sector, allowing for the
development of extreme instability during the mid to late afternoon
from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

The second round of severe storms is expected to start during the
late afternoon as repeat initiation takes place in west Texas. Rapid
supercell formation is forecast along the I-27 corridor from the
vicinity of Lubbock northward to just south of Amarillo. A cluster
of tornadic supercells is then forecast to move northeastward into
northwest Texas and the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the
early evening. Additional tornadic supercells are forecast to
rapidly develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeastward into
west-central Oklahoma. At that time, the strengthening low-level jet
will couple with a highly progressive and seasonably strong
mid-level jet, making conditions favorable for long-track strong
tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes.

The greatest threat for long-track tornadoes will exist along the
corridor from near Lubbock northeastward to Childress, Altus,
Lawton, Clinton to just west of the Oklahoma City and Enid
vicinities. After considerable deliberation, a High risk will be
issued for parts of west Texas, the southeastern Texas Panhandle
into western Oklahoma.

In addition to the tornado threat, conditions will be very favorable
for large hail and wind damage. Strong instability, enhanced
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will make
hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the
more intense supercells, mainly in west Texas and the western half
of Oklahoma. A wind-damage threat will also exist across much of the
southern Plains due to the expected intense nature of the storms.
The wind-damage threat, including some gusts above 70 kt, should
become widespread during the late evening into the overnight period
as squall line organizes and moves quickly eastward across the
southern Plains.
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2019 04:41 AM
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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2019 05:14 AM
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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Cape of 6000 in between Lubbock and SW and Central Oklahoma [link to www.ventusky.com (secure)]
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 05:16 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
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miabelieves

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05/20/2019 06:19 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
bump
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 06:39 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
High Impact SEVERE EVENT today & tonight coupled with HIGH RISK for FLOOD. Not surprised w/SPC HIGH RISK today. Probabilities below for Tornadoes, Damaging Winds &Big Hail all high!
Flying into OKC yesterday fields looked excessively wet from the air. 4th map is WPC flood risk
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Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:12 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
TORCON 9 TODAY!!!


siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:13 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
On-going elevated convection in the Texas panhandle leaving an outflow boundary that may become a focus for initiation farther south (later)...


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Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:16 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152

@JimCantore
2 minHá 2 minutos
Mais Jim Cantore retweetou Univ. of Oklahoma
Many schools/education centers in OKC metro closed today for the SEVERE Risk on this anniversary of the horrible 2013 Moore, OK EF-5.J
Univ. of Oklahoma


@UofOklahoma
OU Alert: 7:40 PM Due to the threat of severe weather, the OU Norman campus will be closed on Monday, May 20. For more information, visit [link to ou.edu] .
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:19 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Next few days pose significant danger of severe weather in middle of U.S., especially Monday. Plan now for where to spend day, to be close to strong shelter - Not a mobile home, a vehicle, or under an overpass. Avoid large rooms and gyms. Choose shelter out of flood-prone areas.
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2019 07:28 AM
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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Horrendous dream about Wichita Falls
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Luisport  (OP)

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Horrendous dream about Wichita Falls
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 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3440479


hiding
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:30 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152

@splillo
4 hHá 4 horas
Mais
To put it bluntly, each HRRR run is a new nightmare for west Texas into Oklahoma tomorrow.
tcs

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05/20/2019 07:37 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Heads-up!




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"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." ~Author unknown
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

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05/20/2019 07:39 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Torcons of 9 I have never seen that level and matches the message given today uhohahhhdeviltardsiren2
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:40 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
already this morning... [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Snuffielover

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05/20/2019 07:46 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Good day everyone, going to watch this one closely. Hopefully in good company with you folks hf
If any foreign minister begins to defend to the death a "peace conference," you can be sure his government has already placed its orders for new battleships and aeroplanes.
ThreeLittleLambs
Curious....

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05/20/2019 07:53 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Prayers for everyone on the path. We had a tornado touch down last week about a mile from my house. I hate storms.
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 07:54 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Prayers for everyone on the path. We had a tornado touch down last week about a mile from my house. I hate storms.
 Quoting: ThreeLittleLambs


Stay safe! hf
CountryWise

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05/20/2019 08:00 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
They closed all our schools last night. I live in OKC/Yukon area and last night I had people checking on me in 3 states and not 1 cloud in the sky. Today is the 5 yr anniversary of the F5 Moore tornado that killed school kids.

Still have not seen 1 rain drop for almost 48 hrs.

I feel like the weather channel has played this up and gave my mother in law in California anxiety at 8pm last night.

Will write later with real news.
ThreeLittleLambs
Curious....

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05/20/2019 08:03 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
They closed all our schools last night. I live in OKC/Yukon area and last night I had people checking on me in 3 states and not 1 cloud in the sky. Today is the 5 yr anniversary of the F5 Moore tornado that killed school kids.

Still have not seen 1 rain drop for almost 48 hrs.

I feel like the weather channel has played this up and gave my mother in law in California anxiety at 8pm last night.

Will write later with real news.
 Quoting: CountryWise


Stay safe hf
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 08:15 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northwest Texas
Western and central Oklahoma

* HAZARDS...
Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. More-isolated but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes, is possible in surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.
CountryWise

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05/20/2019 08:15 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
They closed all our schools last night. I live in OKC/Yukon area and last night I had people checking on me in 3 states and not 1 cloud in the sky. Today is the 5 yr anniversary of the F5 Moore tornado that killed school kids.

Still have not seen 1 rain drop for almost 48 hrs.

I feel like the weather channel has played this up and gave my mother in law in California anxiety at 8pm last night.

Will write later with real news.
 Quoting: CountryWise


Stay safe hf
 Quoting: ThreeLittleLambs


Thank you ThreeLittleLambs!

When I said real news, I didnt mean in any way to say this wasnt real news or that the OP shared fake news, I only meant fake as in the weather channel giving people anxiety for me 4 or 5 states over.
Snuffielover

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05/20/2019 08:15 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
They closed all our schools last night. I live in OKC/Yukon area and last night I had people checking on me in 3 states and not 1 cloud in the sky. Today is the 5 yr anniversary of the F5 Moore tornado that killed school kids.

Still have not seen 1 rain drop for almost 48 hrs.

I feel like the weather channel has played this up and gave my mother in law in California anxiety at 8pm last night.

Will write later with real news.
 Quoting: CountryWise


You ought to get out of harm's way while you still can. Getting caught in an outbreak without a shelter when the place is flooding up would be very sad.
If any foreign minister begins to defend to the death a "peace conference," you can be sure his government has already placed its orders for new battleships and aeroplanes.
abeliever
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05/20/2019 08:16 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
bump

Praying for everyone!

Be safe!

hf
Luisport  (OP)

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05/20/2019 08:19 AM

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Re: Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Precipitation [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]