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Message Subject Severe Weather: Tornado watch for Denver NOW!!!p152
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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SPC and the HRRR model seem to have the right idea with respect to the tornado threat in Nebraska. Initiation should begin in southwest Nebraska underneath the exit region of the mid-level trough-eventually migrating towards the northeast into southeast South Dakota. Possibly an extension of a higher risk farther northeast into South Dakota later. This area carries an enhanced risk at present-with an upgrade possible.

A line of discrete cells along the dryline into the triple point sweeping east.
Elevated convection and hail north of the east/west boundary, strongly backed modeled low-level winds along this boundary so it may become just as active as the dryline-if not more so.
Farther south along the dryline, the HRRR does not ever really overcome the cap. So, a conditional threat here. Although the dryline almost always seems to produce something. As the SPC noted, there should be better dynamical lift north of Texas and this should allow erosion of the cap over western Kansas and require inclusion in a higher risk area.
 
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