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TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

 
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Storm getting some shear from the north. Weather channel
 Quoting: Earth Cries


Yeah, that was expected but it will diminish later today.
 Quoting: FeedYourHead


Wtf
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07/11/2019 08:53 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Pin it!
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!


Nothing will happen. It's been shredded to pieces by the northerly shear in the past few hours.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76944712


Goddamit even natural doom is blue balls.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Storm getting some shear from the north. Weather channel
 Quoting: Earth Cries


Yeah, that was expected but it will diminish later today.
 Quoting: FeedYourHead


Wtf
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!


Not sure what you mean with the wtf?

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Last Edited by FeedYourHead on 07/11/2019 09:02 AM
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
New Orleans is saved!
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07/11/2019 09:22 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Gonna get Katrina'd again.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40885184


Could be much worse if it goes up the mouth of the Mississippi River. Katrina did not make landfall in NOLA, it made landfall east of NOLA in Biloxi, Mississippi.
 Quoting: DEPLORABLE Lady Jayne Smith


Actually, Katrina made landfall in sw Mississippi, near Pearlington (close to the MS/LA state line). The entire Mississippi Gulf Coast took an enormous hit though, as did southeast Louisiana. The biggest problem Nola had was flooding. Hoping Barry won’t strengthen too much, so those levees won’t be breached.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Storm getting some shear from the north. Weather channel
 Quoting: Earth Cries


Yeah, that was expected but it will diminish later today.
 Quoting: FeedYourHead


Well, it looks like the storm could entirely dissipate by then.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76944712


LOL...I give up....where the heck are you jokers getting this from?
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Here again! catfilenails
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@RyanMaue
47 minHá 47 minutos
Mais
A slight eastward deviation in track of developing "Barry" could shift this large area of 10-20" rainfall directly over New Orleans.

Louisiana to be inundated by this slow-moving tropical system this weekend.

(NWS WPC total precipitation forecast data)
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
3
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@RyanMaue
47 minHá 47 minutos
Mais
A slight eastward deviation in track of developing "Barry" could shift this large area of 10-20" rainfall directly over New Orleans.

Louisiana to be inundated by this slow-moving tropical system this weekend.

(NWS WPC total precipitation forecast data)
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
3
 Quoting: Luisport


Doom on again
I only seek the truth n nothing but the truth!

The truth will set you free, for a price!
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07/11/2019 09:41 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@TropicalTidbits
25 minHá 25 minutos
Mais
[#NerdTweet] #PTC2's circulation is elliptical. Ellipses rotate counterclockwise with time. As the SW lobe rotates through the southern semicircle where ocean fluxes are highest and convection is occurring downshear, opportunity for vorticity generation is at a maximum.


Don't get lost in the wind forecast though. By far, flooding is the major concern, regardless of future #Barry's wind strength. Lots of rain for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas is forecast. Any storm surge backing up the river would also be a major problem. Be vigilant.


Once convection gets close enough to the center, decent intensification through landfall is likely. The current NHC forecast for hurricane intensity (75 mph max wind) at landfall is not an unreasonable one in my view, but there is a significant uncertainty range on that number.


The intensity forecast is not confident either. While PTC2 is elongated this morning, weak steering currents means 36-48 hours of time left over water. When shear shifts from upper- to mid-level tomorrow, convection may become more organized.


The result of all this is that the evolution so far is more GFS-like than ECMWF or HWRF-like. Weak today, slower, more likely to turn north sooner. Models have shifted east relative to yesterday. Some even have landfall in Mississippi. Uncertainty remains in the exact track.


The shear is upper-level right now, being maximized by a "shortwave" in the 200mb flow along the FL panhandle. As this moves south, 200mb flow becomes more friendly to the storm on Friday. But then mid-level shear increases, so we end up exchanging one shear layer for another.



The centroid of the low-level circulation is north of the convection due to increasing northerly shear, evident from cirrus streaming southward from Mobile Bay. This is preventing a proper inner core from forming early in the development process.


@TropicalTidbits
51 minHá 51 minutos
Mais
This SW lobe was just flown through by a new recon plane, with extrapolated pressures of 1005mb. This is 5-7mb lower than 12 hours ago, indicating that cyclogenesis is underway, despite the disheveled appearance.
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@RyanMaue
47 minHá 47 minutos
Mais
A slight eastward deviation in track of developing "Barry" could shift this large area of 10-20" rainfall directly over New Orleans.

Louisiana to be inundated by this slow-moving tropical system this weekend.

(NWS WPC total precipitation forecast data)
[link to twitter.com (secure)]
3
 Quoting: Luisport


Doom on again
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!

Of course... trolls don't know nothing!
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
cyclogenesis is underway, despite the disheveled appearance
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Tony
@whatdoweseehere
An extremely rare day 3 High Risk issuance— only used for two other events (Harvey and Florence). RT @NWSWPC: A HIGH risk is in effect in our Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. More details: [link to go.usa.gov]
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
TD2 may become TS Barry rather quickly. System is wrapping around on north side finally.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
hiding
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
HWRF at 48 hrs 971mb

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Recon finding more SMFR TS winds

41.0 knots (~ 47.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


Uh oh
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


Uh oh
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!


TS BARRY NOW!
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Thread: New Invest 93L Issued NOW!
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
...Tennessee east across the Southern Appalachians and Carolinas...

The stalled cold front sags south a bit over the TN Valley, the

southern Appalachians, and near the NC/SC border Saturday and

Saturday night. Gulf moisture continues to stream north from

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 and converges on this front. At least

an isolated flash flood threat is along this boundary, so a

Marginal Risk was introduced for an overlapping zone shifted a bit

south from Day 2. Should any particular areas become more evident

to sustained convective storms or the front completely stall from

Day 2 to 3, a Slight Risk would be warranted.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86


What does that mean
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86


@hurrtrackerapp
22 minhá 22 minutos
Mais
NEW: A mandatory evacuation order is in effect for the entire Eastbank of Plaquemines Parish & Westbank from the Oakville floodgate south to Venice, as well as for Lafitte, Barataria, Crown Point and the town of Jean Lafitte in Louisiana. #PTC2 #Barry
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86


What does that mean
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!


new area to look, but no worry for now... just in case...
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


Uh oh
 Quoting: Truth Seeker!


TS BARRY NOW!
 Quoting: Luisport


odance
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
508 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The impacts of a tropical system will dominate the weather across
the forecast area through the weekend. At this time, a broad area
of low pressure with associated with scattered convection over
the north Gulf is not well defined. This system is forecast to
track to the west southwest today and then to the west on Friday
and begin strengthening before making a turn toward the northwest
with continued strengthening on Saturday and possibly making
landfall as a weak hurricane. Models remain in pretty good
agreement through the next 48 hours, but then diverge with the
movement somewhat beyond that as a result of differences in the
models with regards to the strength of the mid/upper ridge to
north of the system. At this time, it appears that the most likely
landfall will be in south central or southwest Louisiana.
Regardless of where the system eventually make landfall, it
appears that pretty much the entire forecast area will see
significant impacts from this storm with the potential for heavy
rainfall being the greatest threat. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 15
inches will be possible through the weekend with isolated amounts
up to 20 inches. In addition, storm surge will pose a threat with
this system with the potential for 3 to 6 feet along the southeast
Louisiana coast and 1 to 3 along the Mississippi coast and in
Lake Pontchartrain. Hurricane conditions will be possible across
coastal areas by Friday night with tropical storm storm conditions
possible by Friday. Isolate tornadoes will also be possible
tonight and Friday.

Conditions will not begin to improve until this system pulls
farther inland and away from the area early next work week. 11

&&
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@TropicalTidbits
1 minHá 1 minuto
Mais
Recon aircraft is finding tropical storm-force winds of 40-45 mph in the southeastern quadrant.

An important note is how far these maximum winds are from the center (~200 km), which indicates the disorganization of the storm, for now.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@hurrtrackerapp
Seguir Seguir @hurrtrackerapp
Mais
#PTC2 will be upgraded to #TD2 with the next update in 30 minutes from the NHC.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Recon finding more SMFR TS winds

41.0 knots (~ 47.2 mph)
Tropical Storm

 Quoting: Luisport


Dang, I run to the store for a little while and look what you went and did Luis!!! Can't leave you alone for a minute!

rockon

That was quick.....
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall