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TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/08/2019 06:18 PM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Yeah how weird is it that it's forming from north to south, from land to water, so weird. I can't think of a time when that ever happened.
 Quoting: I'm Listening


never seen that, except coming of the coast of Africa. Never in the GOM
 Quoting: overwatch


It's possible to intensify to Cat 1...
 Quoting: Luisport


At this point, the category wind speeds will not be as important as the rainfall and tsunami-like flooding that is now characteristic of storms whether forming over land or water. The fact that this is forming over land before the over water low goes to TS/Hurricane level is ominous.
UH
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


Some models dishing out totals of 1-2 feet+ of rain..that is scary alone if it happens. Yes the likliest outcome is a slow moving big rain producer regardless of intensity.
 Quoting: Luisport


LOOKS LIKE THOSE MISSISSIPPI BEACHES ARE GONNA BE OPEN AND REAL CLEANED OUT!..IN AUGUST..
 Quoting: UH 73776459


DIS?
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
THIS THING WILL MEET AND INTERACT WITH THE MASSIVE HEAT WAVE COMING THIS NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS...SHOULD B FUN...!
 Quoting: UH 76372983


THE 'REMNANTS OF 92 IL' AND THIS HEAT WAVE WILL NEVER STOP RAINING IN CERTAIN AREAS...
 Quoting: UH 76372983

 Quoting: UH 76372983


AN DIS
Tynyyn

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07/08/2019 06:31 PM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
wow, 20 inches of rain possible for southern louisiana. That's a lot of moisture.

Louisport, any idea of how far inland that storm is gonna push north?
AmericanSpyglass

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07/08/2019 06:50 PM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Won’t this just pick up all the pollution in the gulf and drop it back on land?
Seems that would be epic in the extreme.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73609151


Not really, when water evaporates and condenses it can’t take stuff like oil or heavy pollutants with it.
Goofy for God
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Just watched WC really something to watch grouphugin South Texas Crops are ready for harvest
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
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BRsquatter77 • 9 minutes ago
The evolving WPC rainfall forecast is starting to remind me more and more of the 2016 flood we had in Baton Rouge. The dramatic upward trends in the days leading up. Slow and westward moving system hugging the gulf coast...
 Quoting: Luisport


I live near BR and I'm getting that sinking feeling. I got 6 feet of water in 2016. Yesterday with only a small chance of rain we got a pop-up storm that lasted only 10 mins but hail was blowing across my front porch and hitting my front door and trees were downed all around me... thinking of moving back to the desert.
"Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness." So I got that goin' for me, which is nice.
Goofy for God
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
The rain has never stopped even for a day in the US and July and Aug are hot and dry. The EQs wont stop in Calif what nexthiding
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
I'm Listening

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07/08/2019 11:05 PM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
No self-respecting Floridian or Gulf Coast occupant is nervous for anything less than a Cat 2 so WHATEVER. If you don't live here you don't know nothin about tropical disturbances.

cheers
 Quoting: I'm Listening


Normally I would totally agree, but im still rebuilding my town which was all but erased by michael last october. NOt really nervousness, just kinda meh
 Quoting: overwatch


You get a pass in my book! You guys got rocked so hard last year. My friend lost her house. She had to move over to another city! Funny how you guys are so close to Tallahassee but it's like they forgot about you all. Makes me so mad!

Last Edited by I'm Listening on 07/08/2019 11:06 PM
I'm Listening

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
No self-respecting Floridian or Gulf Coast occupant is nervous for anything less than a Cat 2 so WHATEVER. If you don't live here you don't know nothin about tropical disturbances.

cheers
 Quoting: I'm Listening


Normally I would totally agree, but im still rebuilding my town which was all but erased by michael last october. NOt really nervousness, just kinda meh
 Quoting: overwatch


I'm just trying to help as usual...
 Quoting: Luisport


Just don't panic the new folks LOL
I'm Listening

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
No self-respecting Floridian or Gulf Coast occupant is nervous for anything less than a Cat 2 so WHATEVER. If you don't live here you don't know nothin about tropical disturbances.

cheers
 Quoting: I'm Listening


That's horseshit. I have family -from TX to FL. Every single one down to a person - gets nervous now. From extreme flooding to tornadoes, it's all a wild card only now, lately, the deck seems stacked to lose.

We got flesh eating virus, toxic algae, flash floods.

Pick one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75879077


Not horseshit. Once you get you ass handed to you by a storm, you never ever let your guard down again.

I've been pretty blah about storms since that 1993 no name storm.
 Quoting: jt210


Let me tell you about Hurricane Betsy...
 Quoting: Masiro®


No self-respecting Floridian or Gulf Coast occupant is nervous for anything less than a Cat 2 so WHATEVER. If you don't live here you don't know nothin about tropical disturbances.

cheers
 Quoting: I'm Listening


That's horseshit. I have family -from TX to FL. Every single one down to a person - gets nervous now. From extreme flooding to tornadoes, it's all a wild card only now, lately, the deck seems stacked to lose.

We got flesh eating virus, toxic algae, flash floods.

Pick one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75879077


Not horseshit. Once you get you ass handed to you by a storm, you never ever let your guard down again.

I've been pretty blah about storms since that 1993 no name storm.
 Quoting: jt210


Let me tell you about Hurricane Betsy...
 Quoting: Masiro®


Yeah I lived through a bunch including Andrew. So like I said, not news till it's at least Cat 1. If we're talking about flooding then that's another story. My family in New Orleans knows all about that.

Last Edited by I'm Listening on 07/08/2019 11:13 PM
AmericanSpyglass

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07/09/2019 01:16 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Some of the latest model runs are still trending to a CAT 1, but it could always be more. Don’t forget we have been surprised by rapid intensification before.
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
974mbar

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Eric Webb
@webberweather
The overnight ECMWF run shifted east w/ the track of #92L &/or #Barry in the Gulf of Mexico thanks in largely to early changes in the low-level vort max structure & a stronger trough over the Great Lakes at day 3. Both changes may be within the realm of modeled error/white noise
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
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SoonerShawn • 5 minutes ago
GFS now pretty much dissipates 92L right before Texas. Again, this is why we have to wait until it's out over the water and establishes the closed LLC before putting too much stock into the models. They don't have anything to latch unto at the moment...and there's no way of knowing exactly when/where the closed LLC would form.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
00z euro drops nearly 3 feet of rain near Baton Rouge

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091102
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida
Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is
forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Once the system is over
water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to
develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether
or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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07/09/2019 07:28 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Won’t this just pick up all the pollution in the gulf and drop it back on land?
Seems that would be epic in the extreme.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73609151


Not really, when water evaporates and condenses it can’t take stuff like oil or heavy pollutants with it.
 Quoting: AmericanSpyglass


Bacteria plume
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
MEC004 • a minute ago
New Update from Space City Weather on our lil friend:

Again, given that we don’t know for sure where 92L will go, we can’t say for sure what the forecast will be. But I try to be a reasonable person, so let me offer you three possible outcomes, in no particular order at all.

Scenario a.) Overnight model guidance, specifically off the Euro accurately shifted things east, and the system comes ashore in central Louisiana: Houston would be extremely hot and mostly dry. High temperatures would be in the upper-90s to near 100° and storm chances would be minimal Friday and especially Saturday.

Scenario b.) The GFS model is generally correct, and 92L will come more due west, disorganized: We would see high temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s all weekend with higher end daily storm chances, capable of locally heavy rainfall. That would probably yield 1 to 3 inches on average, with higher amounts possible.

Scenario c.) The Euro and GFS trend toward one another or the center forms further south in the Gulf today and tomorrow, allowing a more westward track toward southeast Texas rather than central Louisiana: We would see tropical depression or tropical storm type impacts Saturday and Sunday in the Houston area. That would include wind, waves, and widespread heavy rain in this scenario.

All three of these scenarios or some hybrid of a couple are completely plausible right now. I don’t expect a ton more clarity this afternoon, but I do expect a decent boost in forecast confidence by tomorrow morning.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Surface obs this morning indicate a surface trough extension along the Florida panhandle. This is a feature the GFS picked up on but the ECMWF missed.

Watching today for whether this feature or something closer to Tampa becomes dominant - a very important detail for 92L's future pic.twitter.com/jLvaUAtCsK

— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 9, 2019
overwatch

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07/09/2019 08:22 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
No self-respecting Floridian or Gulf Coast occupant is nervous for anything less than a Cat 2 so WHATEVER. If you don't live here you don't know nothin about tropical disturbances.

cheers
 Quoting: I'm Listening


Normally I would totally agree, but im still rebuilding my town which was all but erased by michael last october. NOt really nervousness, just kinda meh
 Quoting: overwatch


You get a pass in my book! You guys got rocked so hard last year. My friend lost her house. She had to move over to another city! Funny how you guys are so close to Tallahassee but it's like they forgot about you all. Makes me so mad!
 Quoting: I'm Listening


Tell me about it. The area is big time republican, Im sure that has something to do with it. Im from nola originally, left about 4 years ago bc I just couldnt clean up another storm related mess. Seems that is not in the cards for me. Screw it though, this is paradise to me
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
GEOS-5 has been moving toward this weaker, heavy rain event. Hits Louisiana & goes on to Houston. Might get to a Tropical Storm briefly this run but overall struggles with land and rains.
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07/09/2019 09:02 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
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hidinghidinghidinghiding

bump
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
...


That's horseshit. I have family -from TX to FL. Every single one down to a person - gets nervous now. From extreme flooding to tornadoes, it's all a wild card only now, lately, the deck seems stacked to lose.

We got flesh eating virus, toxic algae, flash floods.

Pick one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75879077


Not horseshit. Once you get you ass handed to you by a storm, you never ever let your guard down again.

I've been pretty blah about storms since that 1993 no name storm.
 Quoting: jt210


Let me tell you about Hurricane Betsy...
 Quoting: Masiro®


...


That's horseshit. I have family -from TX to FL. Every single one down to a person - gets nervous now. From extreme flooding to tornadoes, it's all a wild card only now, lately, the deck seems stacked to lose.

We got flesh eating virus, toxic algae, flash floods.

Pick one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75879077


Not horseshit. Once you get you ass handed to you by a storm, you never ever let your guard down again.

I've been pretty blah about storms since that 1993 no name storm.
 Quoting: jt210


Let me tell you about Hurricane Betsy...
 Quoting: Masiro®


Yeah I lived through a bunch including Andrew. So like I said, not news till it's at least Cat 1. If we're talking about flooding then that's another story. My family in New Orleans knows all about that.
 Quoting: I'm Listening


Let me tell y'all about Katrina...

But really, it doesn't take a big storm to cause major flooding. Everything is paved over and there is nowhere for the rainwater to go anymore.
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
ICON - 974 mb

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Sea surface temps in Gulf of Mexico - Yikes!

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Gemini Rising

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
Isn't this kind of early for a TS? I thought they tended to be Septemberish
 Quoting: TunafishSammiches


Hurricane season began June 1st.
Luisport  (OP)

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07/09/2019 09:33 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

@TropicalTidbits
5 minHá 5 minutos
Mais
There are hints of weak low- to mid-level rotation south of Apalachee Bay. Much of the broad-scale rotation remains over land, currently hidden without clouds to track it.

#92L is a sloppy, loose system. It is not expected to develop today just yet. Just showers for FL today.
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86
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Last Edited by Luisport on 07/09/2019 09:48 AM