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TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86

 
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 10:37 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
New Orleans Mayor Cantrell:

"The city only enacts evacuations for hurricanes of Category 3 force or higher. Therefore, sheltering in place is our strategy."

That's a sound strategy for a city that is above sea level.
However, if your city is considerably below sea level and surrounded by water on all sides, only existing because of the elaborate system of dikes and pumping stations... the criteria for evacuations should include other factors than wind speed. Just saying...


stfu
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 10:37 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Hey Everyone! As expected Barry has is finally organizing and this is the point of the storm which is extremely dangerous with exception of a bit of shear-- the overall environment is capable of higher than normal Rapid Intensification. The only thing that may inhibit it from reaching a decent hurricane is time before landfall. But as we know there are scenarios where storms have turned from TS to Major hurricane in 24 hours or less. Just look at Patricia...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


and this is stalled...
 Quoting: Luisport


It definitely isnt moving very much.. look even like a job to the SSW. I think this is where the circulation is readjusting focus under the CDO. Unfortunately an additional 6-12 hours over open ocean could be a difference between a strong Tropical Storm and a Major Hurricane at this point...
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 10:38 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
The MS River gauge in New Orleans is already reading higher than projected at this time.
 Quoting: Luisport


the reading i'm getting is 16.62 feet
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13635864


that's not the latest...
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 10:38 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Hey Everyone! As expected Barry has is finally organizing and this is the point of the storm which is extremely dangerous with exception of a bit of shear-- the overall environment is capable of higher than normal Rapid Intensification. The only thing that may inhibit it from reaching a decent hurricane is time before landfall. But as we know there are scenarios where storms have turned from TS to Major hurricane in 24 hours or less. Just look at Patricia...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


and this is stalled...
 Quoting: Luisport


It definitely isnt moving very much.. look even like a job to the SSW. I think this is where the circulation is readjusting focus under the CDO. Unfortunately an additional 6-12 hours over open ocean could be a difference between a strong Tropical Storm and a Major Hurricane at this point...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


hesright
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 10:38 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
New Orleans Mayor Cantrell:

"The city only enacts evacuations for hurricanes of Category 3 force or higher. Therefore, sheltering in place is our strategy."

That's a sound strategy for a city that is above sea level.
However, if your city is considerably below sea level and surrounded by water on all sides, only existing because of the elaborate system of dikes and pumping stations... the criteria for evacuations should include other factors than wind speed. Just saying...


stfu
 Quoting: Luisport


You know the idiots in government there didn't learn from Katrina. They will make the wrong decision and blame the republican administration-- that is the protocol instead of making a responsible, smart decision...
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:38 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
The MS River gauge in New Orleans is already reading higher than projected at this time.
 Quoting: Luisport


the reading i'm getting is 16.62 feet
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13635864


that's not the latest...
 Quoting: Luisport


where are you getting you info, because 3 different stations are saying this
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:39 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Cross-section of the Mississippi River and New Orleans

[link to i.imgur.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77689241

wtfdoom
Revbo™

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07/12/2019 10:39 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Hey Everyone! As expected Barry has is finally organizing and this is the point of the storm which is extremely dangerous with exception of a bit of shear-- the overall environment is capable of higher than normal Rapid Intensification. The only thing that may inhibit it from reaching a decent hurricane is time before landfall. But as we know there are scenarios where storms have turned from TS to Major hurricane in 24 hours or less. Just look at Patricia...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


and this is stalled...
 Quoting: Luisport


It definitely isnt moving very much.. look even like a job to the SSW. I think this is where the circulation is readjusting focus under the CDO. Unfortunately an additional 6-12 hours over open ocean could be a difference between a strong Tropical Storm and a Major Hurricane at this point...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


And they’re betting everybody’s lives on the river cresting at 19 feet instead of 20.
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 10:40 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
last 24h loop: [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:40 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Convection is really starting to flair up in the last half hour. Very cold cloud tops and the COC is starting to get covered.
[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

 Quoting: Luisport


dange barry this we really need too watch barry today the way it is acting today this could turn in too a vary DANGEROUS storm really quick and still moveing slow has well

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

 Quoting: Luisport


This next 2hrs will be very telling. Either Barry keeps this burst of convection and starts getting his act together, and strengthens up til land fall. Or this round of convection can’t manage to wrap at all and fizzles, and Barry remains messy.
 Quoting: Luisport


IT IS GOING TO GET HOTTER..THE DAY..THE WATER BELOW IT..THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL JUST GO UP...PERIOD.
 Quoting: UH 74785742


Gulf water temps are 88 degrees and they climb a bit during full sun, this could get really bad.
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:41 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
I'm actually seeing some blue in the sky...no rain at all
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 10:41 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
We are also rounding the corner for another update from the NHC. Recon should be passing through the center again in another 20-30 minutes. Should be interesting if that pass-through makes it into the update by 10am CDT or a quick update afterwards. I could easily see this already at 65-70mph with pressure around 990mb or less based on just sat appearance..
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:42 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Last frame, Barry is starting to get the "buzzsaw", extremely bad omen

[link to weather.cod.edu (secure)]
jt210

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07/12/2019 10:42 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Hey Everyone! As expected Barry has is finally organizing and this is the point of the storm which is extremely dangerous with exception of a bit of shear-- the overall environment is capable of higher than normal Rapid Intensification. The only thing that may inhibit it from reaching a decent hurricane is time before landfall. But as we know there are scenarios where storms have turned from TS to Major hurricane in 24 hours or less. Just look at Patricia...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


and this is stalled...
 Quoting: Luisport


It definitely isnt moving very much.. look even like a job to the SSW. I think this is where the circulation is readjusting focus under the CDO. Unfortunately an additional 6-12 hours over open ocean could be a difference between a strong Tropical Storm and a Major Hurricane at this point...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


And they’re betting everybody’s lives on the river cresting at 19 feet instead of 20.
 Quoting: Revbo™


A foot may as well be a mile. Party on! j/k

TBC-dance
So, AOC was walking through the Bronx. She came upon a set of tracks. She said to herself, "Oh look, deer tracks." She looked again and said, "Oh wait, those are bear tracks". Pondered a little more and said, "Oh silly me, those are rabbit...." The train hit her.
Revbo™

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07/12/2019 10:44 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
...


and this is stalled...
 Quoting: Luisport


It definitely isnt moving very much.. look even like a job to the SSW. I think this is where the circulation is readjusting focus under the CDO. Unfortunately an additional 6-12 hours over open ocean could be a difference between a strong Tropical Storm and a Major Hurricane at this point...
 Quoting: MaximusRex


And they’re betting everybody’s lives on the river cresting at 19 feet instead of 20.
 Quoting: Revbo™


A foot may as well be a mile. Party on! j/k

TBC-dance
 Quoting: jt210


Barkeep, another round of Hand Grenades, please!

dasbier
UH
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07/12/2019 10:48 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Last frame, Barry is starting to get the "buzzsaw", extremely bad omen

[link to weather.cod.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621519


PERFECT SYMMETRY...NO EXTERAL INFLUENCE WHAT SO EVER...BAD.
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:49 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
It stalled
It’s organizing
Poss strengthening
Rainfall models going up
City sees floods as duds, so no evac
It’s the perfect scenario for a major disaster

Other than that, blue skies!
N3m3s1s

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07/12/2019 10:50 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Last frame, Barry is starting to get the "buzzsaw", extremely bad omen

[link to weather.cod.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621519


Rapid intensification
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:50 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
H.E. Pennypacker

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07/12/2019 10:54 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
so basically it's possible that this will be a repeat of katrina and new orleans will be flooded?
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:54 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Geographically Barry is wide to the east. A lot of moisture moving into FL panhandle also.

.

Lake Ponch under storm surge Warning.

.
JustBobTX

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07/12/2019 10:58 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
so basically it's possible that this will be a repeat of katrina and new orleans will be flooded?
 Quoting: H.E. Pennypacker


It could be the entire city under water. Katrina x 100.
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 10:59 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
USGS as of 1 hour ago

River level 16.67 feet

[link to waterdata.usgs.gov (secure)]
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:02 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:04 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
WHAT??? [link to hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu]
UH
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07/12/2019 11:05 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


ILL TAKE THE TOP ONE , BOB!...FOR 12OO
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:05 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Latest image from the infrared

[link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

violin
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07/12/2019 11:05 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


CAT 3-5! Seriously?
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:06 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

 Quoting: Luisport


I'm still a little hesitant at their intensity forecast. NHC blew several storms in the mid-atlantic last year that were under duress by shear and quickly turned into major hurricanes despite the models. This afternoon should be a determining factor at how high this could get ramped up.
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:07 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


CAT 3-5! Seriously?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76730425


I don't belive...