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TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:07 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

 Quoting: Luisport


I'm still a little hesitant at their intensity forecast. NHC blew several storms in the mid-atlantic last year that were under duress by shear and quickly turned into major hurricanes despite the models. This afternoon should be a determining factor at how high this could get ramped up.
 Quoting: MaximusRex


If you read the whole of NHC's latest discussion you can see that everyone over in NHC is frustrated and confused by this system.
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:08 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


CAT 3-5! Seriously?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76730425


Its quite possible if the shear lessens or has a lessened effect. It has happened before and needs to be monitored. I wouldnt worry about it if this was in middle of the atlantic, but this is the one time I would not solely depend on the models for intensity and take the recon and sat images every 2-3 hours at a time.
FeedYourHead

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07/12/2019 11:09 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Meteorologists predicted between 10 and 20 inches (25 and 50 cm) of rain would fall on the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday from East Texas through New Orleans and the Louisiana coast.

'CANNOT PUMP OUR WAY OUT'

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell warned that 48 hours of heavy rainfall could overwhelm the pumps the city uses to fight floodwater, leading to flooding as early as Friday morning.



"We cannot pump our way out of the water levels that are expected to hit the city of New Orleans," Cantrell said. "We need you to understand this."

[link to news.trust.org]


Now, NOW she figures this out??? What kind of madness would allow a person who knows what happened with Katrina to repeat the exact same mistakes???

This woman's actions are CRIMINAL!!!

Last Edited by FeedYourHead on 07/12/2019 11:11 AM
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:09 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

 Quoting: Luisport


I'm still a little hesitant at their intensity forecast. NHC blew several storms in the mid-atlantic last year that were under duress by shear and quickly turned into major hurricanes despite the models. This afternoon should be a determining factor at how high this could get ramped up.
 Quoting: MaximusRex


[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

Impressive!
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:11 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
TORCON is 4 for southern LA and MS.

.
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:12 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

 Quoting: Luisport


I'm still a little hesitant at their intensity forecast. NHC blew several storms in the mid-atlantic last year that were under duress by shear and quickly turned into major hurricanes despite the models. This afternoon should be a determining factor at how high this could get ramped up.
 Quoting: MaximusRex


[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

Impressive!
 Quoting: Luisport


Recon is passing through the center now. I would be concerned if this drops to the 988-992ish range. Honestly this is not very far off from a hurricane now. It just comes down to the effect of the shear. It could level off / fizzle slightly this afternoon or heavily ramp back up and deepen quickly.
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:12 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Barry within 8 hours on HRRR

[link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]

Barry has intensified 20kt in the last 24hrs. If he somehow became a hurricane by the 5pm advisory (quite unlikely), he would meet the definition of RI.
FeedYourHead

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07/12/2019 11:13 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Last frame, Barry is starting to get the "buzzsaw", extremely bad omen

[link to weather.cod.edu (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77621519


Yeah.....just like Katrina the fools in New Orleans have waited too late.....Super Domes repeat!

What a bunch of dumb MF's they have running that city....

I never thought it possible to see the stupidity of Ray Nagin repeat itself but once again, I was wrong.
Ask Alice when she's 10ft tall
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:14 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass
of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of
54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:15 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
latest loop [link to uploads.disquscdn.com (secure)]
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:17 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
No/low shear for quite a while.

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]
UH
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07/12/2019 11:19 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
 Quoting: Luisport


CAT 3-5! Seriously?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 76730425


Its quite possible if the shear lessens or has a lessened effect. It has happened before and needs to be monitored. I wouldnt worry about it if this was in middle of the atlantic, but this is the one time I would not solely depend on the models for intensity and take the recon and sat images every 2-3 hours at a time.
 Quoting: MaximusRex


EASILY!...
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:19 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
they're calling it a hurricane but i think we're witnessing new weather phenomona
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:19 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Plane already finding pressure to 996mb, not at center yet. Barry is strengthening
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:21 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
BigAndBendy • a few seconds ago
I hate to say it, seriously. But, I truly believe Barry has finally walked off the dry air intrusion. Nothing but strengthening from here on out. How much remains to be seen...
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:22 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86

@RyanMaue
2 minHá 2 minutos
Mais
Tropical Storm Barry rainfall update:
Saturday evening into Sunday, narrow but extreme rain bands will "train" across the same locations in Louisiana and Mississippi. Rates 3-4" per hour will add up to 15-25" in a matter of hours. Maybe some areas over 30".
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:22 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
No/low shear for quite a while.

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

 Quoting: Luisport


Yeah looking on the north side I dont see evidence of incoming shear. The south side is the only part looking to be still effected by shear as it still has a bunch of blow off. It is clear though in the last 1-2 hours this has reduced tremendously on the south side in appearance. What is concerning me is the overall outflow is presenting MUCH better now. This would make me think this afternoon/evening looks to be very interesting with potential RI.. and 88F water just has me a bit more concerned the modeling is off on intensity.
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:23 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
@RyanMaue
2 minHá 2 minutos
Mais
Tropical Storm Barry rainfall update:
Saturday evening into Sunday, narrow but extreme rain bands will "train" across the same locations in Louisiana and Mississippi. Rates 3-4" per hour will add up to 15-25" in a matter of hours. Maybe some areas over 30".
 Quoting: Luisport


gasp gasp gasp
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:26 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
they're calling it a hurricane but i think we're witnessing new weather phenomona
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75610890


Yes indeed we are. Petroglyphs in the western states of AZ, CA and Utah show us the progression of storm behavior.

Why?

Because this all happened before. Noah's Flood, the Deluge all recorded by humans.

Last month rare sprites developed above Texas thunderstorms and were seen in Oklahoma. Mother Nature will reveal her changes to us.

.
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:26 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
NWS New Orleans
✔
@NWSNewOrleans
· 7m
A Storm Surge Warning is being issued along the immediate shore of Lake Pontchartrain & Lake Borgne. This will trigger a Wireless Emergency Alert that will extend into some leveed areas. If you get a warning alert, please consult this map to confirm whether you are in the warning
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:27 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Update/the latest (recorded at 10:00 AM CDT). ; The highest winds I could find at any reporting stations along the LA Coast was 49 kts sustained (57 mph) and 57 kts gusts (65.59 mph). This reporting station is located 76 miles NNE of the 10:00 AM CDT advisory position for TS Barry.
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:28 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Looks like Recon picked up 991-992mb-ish... not good sign..
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:28 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Yikes 81knots on landfall with the gfs
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:28 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Looks like Recon picked up 991-992mb-ish... not good sign..
 Quoting: MaximusRex


Literally a 5-6mb drop in a couple hours...
Luisport  (OP)

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Looks like Recon picked up 991-992mb-ish... not good sign..
 Quoting: MaximusRex


siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:29 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
they're calling it a hurricane but i think we're witnessing new weather phenomona
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75610890


Latest analysis from Ms Swan on recent TS Barry development:
"Okay, i teh yu evryteen. He look-a like-a man!"
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2019 11:29 AM
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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Looks like Recon picked up 991-992mb-ish... not good sign..
 Quoting: MaximusRex


siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Luisport


rapid intensification underway then

tomato
Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:30 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Look at those purples starting to encircle the center, probably not long before Barry shows us a ragged eye
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Luisport  (OP)

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07/12/2019 11:31 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
According to recon info, Barry has been stationary for the entirety of the flight, just sitting and spinning atm
MaximusRex

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07/12/2019 11:32 AM

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Re: TSBARRY: Barry’s 16.17” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record! Flash flooding across eastern Pennsylvania NOW!!!p86
Looks like Recon picked up 991-992mb-ish... not good sign..
 Quoting: MaximusRex


siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Luisport


rapid intensification underway then

tomato
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77689241


[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]