TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

At this point, the category wind speeds will not be as important as the rainfall and tsunami-like flooding that is now characteristic of storms whether forming over land or water. The fact that this is forming over land before the over water low goes to TS/Hurricane level is ominous.

DIS?

AN DIS

wow, 20 inches of rain possible for southern louisiana. That's a lot of moisture.

Louisport, any idea of how far inland that storm is gonna push north?

Not really, when water evaporates and condenses it can’t take stuff like oil or heavy pollutants with it.

Just watched WC really something to watch in South Texas Crops are ready for harvest

I live near BR and I'm getting that sinking feeling. I got 6 feet of water in 2016. Yesterday with only a small chance of rain we got a pop-up storm that lasted only 10 mins but hail was blowing across my front porch and hitting my front door and trees were downed all around me... thinking of moving back to the desert.

The rain has never stopped even for a day in the US and July and Aug are hot and dry. The EQs wont stop in Calif what next

You get a pass in my book! You guys got rocked so hard last year. My friend lost her house. She had to move over to another city! Funny how you guys are so close to Tallahassee but it's like they forgot about you all. Makes me so mad!

Last Edited by I'm Listening on 07/08/2019 11:06 PM

Just don't panic the new folks LOL

Yeah I lived through a bunch including Andrew. So like I said, not news till it's at least Cat 1. If we're talking about flooding then that's another story. My family in New Orleans knows all about that.

Last Edited by I'm Listening on 07/08/2019 11:13 PM

Some of the latest model runs are still trending to a CAT 1, but it could always be more. Don’t forget we have been surprised by rapid intensification before.

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SoonerShawn • 5 minutes ago
GFS now pretty much dissipates 92L right before Texas. Again, this is why we have to wait until it's out over the water and establishes the closed LLC before putting too much stock into the models. They don't have anything to latch unto at the moment...and there's no way of knowing exactly when/where the closed LLC would form.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091102
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida
Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is
forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Once the system is over
water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to
develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether
or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Bacteria plume

MEC004 • a minute ago
New Update from Space City Weather on our lil friend:

Again, given that we don’t know for sure where 92L will go, we can’t say for sure what the forecast will be. But I try to be a reasonable person, so let me offer you three possible outcomes, in no particular order at all.

Scenario a.) Overnight model guidance, specifically off the Euro accurately shifted things east, and the system comes ashore in central Louisiana: Houston would be extremely hot and mostly dry. High temperatures would be in the upper-90s to near 100° and storm chances would be minimal Friday and especially Saturday.

Scenario b.) The GFS model is generally correct, and 92L will come more due west, disorganized: We would see high temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s all weekend with higher end daily storm chances, capable of locally heavy rainfall. That would probably yield 1 to 3 inches on average, with higher amounts possible.

Scenario c.) The Euro and GFS trend toward one another or the center forms further south in the Gulf today and tomorrow, allowing a more westward track toward southeast Texas rather than central Louisiana: We would see tropical depression or tropical storm type impacts Saturday and Sunday in the Houston area. That would include wind, waves, and widespread heavy rain in this scenario.

All three of these scenarios or some hybrid of a couple are completely plausible right now. I don’t expect a ton more clarity this afternoon, but I do expect a decent boost in forecast confidence by tomorrow morning.

Tell me about it. The area is big time republican, Im sure that has something to do with it. Im from nola originally, left about 4 years ago bc I just couldnt clean up another storm related mess. Seems that is not in the cards for me. Screw it though, this is paradise to me

Let me tell y'all about Katrina...

But really, it doesn't take a big storm to cause major flooding. Everything is paved over and there is nowhere for the rainwater to go anymore.

Hurricane season began June 1st.