TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110846
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The convective activity associated with the broad area of low
pressure is still spread out, and the center of circulation
is not well defined at this time. Both surface and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds remain near 25 kt. The modest
northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further
development. Overall, the environmental conditions still favor the
formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today,
and as the system moves over warm waters, strengthening is
indicated. The intensity models are not as aggressive as they were
in previous runs, but still bring the disturbance to hurricane
status in about 48 hour or so, as the disturbance approaches the
coast.

During the past several hours, the low pressure area has barely
moved due to weak steering currents. However, a westward or
260 degrees drift at about 4 kt should begin soon. The system is
heading toward a weakness in the ridge, and this pattern should
induce a slow turn toward the west-northwest and then north
during the next 3 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast continues to
be located on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and it has
been adjusted slightly eastward to be more consistent with the
multi-model ensemble TVCA. It should be noted that track errors
are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more
mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the
track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the
forecast is not high at the moment.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later today. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be required. Residents in the watch area should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 27.5N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

doom off?

troll?

Louisiana is a RED STATE, but it does have some Blue cities, New Orleans being the largest and most well known, or as the former Mayor said "It's a Chocolate City", yeah - right!!

Looks like we dodged a bullet as the meso cyclone is disorganized and is now predicted to be much less potent at landfall as earlier feared

It's not even a tropical depression. NHC still call it a "potential tropical cyclone".

Love how much this thread reads like the Cat6 blog.

Looks like Anderson Pooper won’t be fake newsing the weather this time around
[link to wattsupwiththat.com (secure)]

You dont understand storm surge. We're not worried about wind damage...its flooding. I live in New Orleans, trust me no one is taking this lightly here.

NEW THIS MORNING - With the Mississippi River already high due to extended spring flooding, officials fear that levees will be over-topped with soon to be expected Hurricane Barry this weekend. Mandatory evacuations are already in place ahead of the storm.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

You seen today's news of the ALREADY flooded areas of New Orleans? Sprinkle in a swelling Mississippi River and then add a tropical system to it and you have a problem.

WeatherNation
‏Verified account @WeatherNation
11m11 minutes ago

**TROPICS UPDATE** Where's our tropical system? And watches in place? All that info here for you to keep you updated! Still waiting on it to be named Tropical Depression #Barry, when max. sustained winds get up to at least 39 mph. DETAILS -> [link to bit.ly (secure)] #tropics

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Hope and praying you are correct. It is forecast to move directly over us.
So far, it is still not a tropical depression yet.
Strange storm...

In ways I agree. Just look how much money is spent in the cone of uncertainty. It’s like the NHC is heavily invested in Home Depot, Lowe’s and Wal-Mart. They are really starting to wishcast these storms lately. I would usually have moved my window boards out of storage, but with them crying wolf over the last few years...I’ll wait. Got everything I need anyway.

Luisport gone quiet... no news is good news.

Storm getting some shear from the north. Weather channel

He's gotta sleep sometime....

You haven't lived in Louisiana have you? You have to get up around Alexandria to find "high" ground.

Bring out the pirogue!

People who didn't have levee systems 400 years ago. They found the "high" spot on the Mississippi and built the French Quarter. They didn't flood. Why? Because the river was allowed to flood all around them and build up land downstream. That all changed with "modern" city planning. The levees were built and NOW, ONLY NOW, does New Orleans sit "in a bowl".

Looks like a bulls eye for Lafayette is the current track?

Uh oh.

Forecast showing 131 mph winds!

[link to tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

Yep anything below Alex is Delta land. Built by the flooding Miss river.

Pin it!

Yeah, that was expected but it will diminish later today.

Still plenty of time for it to restrengthen after...

NOT at the ground....

Wtf