Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
508 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The impacts of a tropical system will dominate the weather across
the forecast area through the weekend. At this time, a broad area
of low pressure with associated with scattered convection over
the north Gulf is not well defined. This system is forecast to
track to the west southwest today and then to the west on Friday
and begin strengthening before making a turn toward the northwest
with continued strengthening on Saturday and possibly making
landfall as a weak hurricane. Models remain in pretty good
agreement through the next 48 hours, but then diverge with the
movement somewhat beyond that as a result of differences in the
models with regards to the strength of the mid/upper ridge to
north of the system. At this time, it appears that the most likely
landfall will be in south central or southwest Louisiana.
Regardless of where the system eventually make landfall, it
appears that pretty much the entire forecast area will see
significant impacts from this storm with the potential for heavy
rainfall being the greatest threat. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 15
inches will be possible through the weekend with isolated amounts
up to 20 inches. In addition, storm surge will pose a threat with
this system with the potential for 3 to 6 feet along the southeast
Louisiana coast and 1 to 3 along the Mississippi coast and in
Lake Pontchartrain. Hurricane conditions will be possible across
coastal areas by Friday night with tropical storm storm conditions
possible by Friday. Isolate tornadoes will also be possible
tonight and Friday.

Conditions will not begin to improve until this system pulls
farther inland and away from the area early next work week. 11

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