TSBARRY: Barry 's rainfall in Arkansas makes it the 5th state just since 2017 to set the record for highest rainfall from a tropical system!!!p86

Of course not

20 inches of rain is 20 inches of rain

Prayers for the Gulf Coast

THE LATEST CONE ON DRUDGE HAS IT GOIN RIGHT UP THE MISSISSIPPI...THRU TUES! AT LEAST..

yes

I think we are seeing society in its dying stages here in the UK

Sorry wrong thread

Sorry if it's been mentioned (I'm slow), check this out: new system brewing way back in the Cape Verde area - [link to www.weather.gov (secure)]

I was gonna say why is this not pined

Interesting storm #Barry. While the northern half is almost cloud free, its center is over warm waters. This is the fuel it needs to grow. USAF Recon has detected surface winds of almost hurricane strength.

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

This is a "Sleeper" storm. No one is paying much attention to it because there aren't "severe" winds. But the wind is not the issue here: Storm surge is the issue.

A Tropical Storm or Category 1 hurricane will only push a storm surge of about 4 to 6 feet. Most folks know that (under normal circumstances) that isn't a lot and won't so much damage except to low-lying coastal areas.

But THIS year, the Mississippi River is 16 feet above sea level due to the almost constant rains deluging the midwest.

The levees and sea walls along northern New Orleans are - at max -- only 20 feet above sea level.

Do the math.

If the river is already at 16 feet, and a small Hurricane comes in with a 5 foot storm surge, ALL of the sea walls get over-topped and a trillion gallons of water pours into New Orleans.

Even worse, the Army Corps of Engineers filed notice in the federal register two years ago, that SOME of the sea walls experienced "subsidence." In layman's terms, they sank.

Some of them sank two FEET.

Bye Bye entire city of New Orleans!

:mconthis:

We had a sleeper storm named Allison in 2001. Everyone was saying it was a shoo shoo( term for a firecracker that doen't pop). This storm dumped 30 inches of water in a few places in Louisiana. Afraid Barry will be much like this in rainfall amounts.

This is just crazy look at lightening

Greece storm: Seven killed in Halkidiki area popular with tourists
[link to www.bbc.com (secure)]

Forecast for Barry
Overall, there is high confidence that Barry will gradually arc west and then northwest toward the central Gulf Coast, coming onshore this weekend. At the same time, there is a good bit of uncertainty over the timing, location, and intensity of landfall. Possible landfall locations range from far northeast Texas (a scenario championed by the UKMET model for several runs) to the Mississippi coast (favored by the 06Z Thursday runs of the high-resolution HWRF and HMON models).

The European and GFS models, which tend to be the most reliable on track forecasts, have trended toward a middle-of-the-pack solution that brings Barry onshore in central or southeast Louisiana on Saturday. The official NHC forecast on Thursday morning was in line with this thinking, with Barry making landfall Saturday morning as a minimal Category 1 storm southeast of Lafayette and moving north toward the Mississippi Delta. Such a track would push the greatest surge, rain, and wind impacts across southeast Louisiana, to the right and ahead of of Barry's center.

It’s quite possible Barry will not reach hurricane strength, especially if it continues to struggle with a lack of consolidation. If we do see a period of significant strengthening, it will most likely be from Friday into Saturday, during the 24 hours or so before landfall, when Barry may be moving very slowly just off the southeast Louisiana coast over very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30°C (86°F). Strong wind shear of 20 - 25 knots may continue to inhibit Barry’s intensification, however.

The main threat from Barry: water
Regardless of its landfall strength, massive amounts of rainfall are likely from Barry, especially if it lingers for long near or just off the Louisiana coast. The latest seven-day rainfall forecast from the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shows a corridor of 15-20” rains associated with Barry’s center tracking just west of the New Orleans area. Such a corridor could easily shift east or west depending on Barry’s exact track. These rainfall totals are from 7 am Thursday, so they do not include the rains that fell in New Orleans on Wednesday. Rains of 4-6” may extend as far north as southeast Arkansas.

Widespread flash flooding is very likely with this setup. In fact, WPC placed most of southeast Louisiana under a high-risk designation for excessive rains on Saturday. A high-risk rainfall outlook on Day 3 has only been issued in two other cases: with Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018), both of which produced multi-billion-dollar flooding.

Note that the biggest rainfall impacts may occur hours after Barry makes landfall.

Storm surge potential along the Gulf Coast and up the Mississippi
Barry is unlikely to intensify enough to generate a highly destructive storm surge, but significant and prolonged surge is still possible. As of midday Thursday, a storm surge warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach, where 3-6’ of inundation is possible at high tide. A storm surge watch, for a possible 2-4’ of inundation, flanks the warning area east to the Mississippi/Alabama border and west to Intracoastal City, LA. Also under a storm surge warning is Lake Pontchartrain, where 1-3’ of inundation is possible.

"The risk for extensive salt water (storm surge) flooding is diminishing as Barry struggles to organize, because it takes time for tropical systems to push salt water...This is good news for south Louisiana," said storm surge expert Hal Needham in an email. A 2014 paper by Needham confirmed that storm surge levels correlate better with pre-landfall hurricane winds than the wind speeds at landfall.

However, he added, "persistent onshore winds will raise salt water levels and slow the drainage of heavy rainfall....a phenomenon known as compound flooding. So even if a community is not flooded by salt water, elevated salt water levels along the coast can contribute to flooding by slowing the drainage process."

Storm surge is also expected to push up the Mississippi River toward New Orleans. The Mississippi has experienced record-prolonged flooding this year, and the arrival of an early-season tropical cyclone atop late-season flooding is an unusual and concerning prospect. See Jeff Masters’ post from Wednesday night on how even a Category 1 hurricane could produce a damaging storm surge in the New Orleans area.

As of Thursday morning, NOAA was predicting the Mississippi to crest at the New Orleans Carrollton Gage on Saturday at 19’, down from the forecast of 20’ on Wednesday. This forecast could change again depending on how Barry evolves, but the one-foot drop is a welcome shift, since the levees protecting the city are at least 20’ high (as confirmed Thursday by the U.S. Corps of Engineers). Some of the river levees south of Oakville and Caernarvon in Plaquemines Parish are at higher risk of being overtopped, according to the Corps, and intermittent overtopping could happen closer to the city due to wave action.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 19:17Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Tropical Depression: Two (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 18

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 18:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.81N 89.03W
B. Center Fix Location: 162 statute miles (261 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 24kts (27.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix at 18:17:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 46° at 22kts (From the NE at 25.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix at 18:16:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 18:57:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 127° at 25kts (From the SE at 28.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix at 18:56:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 241m (791ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 241m (791ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 9 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 100 nautical miles (115 statute miles) to the SE (128°) from the flight level center at 17:04:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet

When the blow up the levees again to save the rich part of the city by sacrificing the shitty parts, yes, the walls will experience "subsidence".

How does blowing up levees in the 9th ward saved the french quarters?

I'D SAY IT'S RIGHT ON SCHEDULE..PERHAPS EVEN AHEAD A 'TAD' OR TWO..

TS BARRY? I thought it was Mooche that was the tranny and ol' Barry was just the receptacle.

Meanwhile, my bosses are still deciding whether or not to close the office tomorrow. Some employees live in areas under mandatory evacuation orders and have to take vacation time so they could pack and leave. The rest of us schmucks are working and watching the forecast and waiting for the muckety-mucks to make a decision.