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| 08:15 AM | ||
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| 08:15 AM | ||
NASA asteroid DANGER: A 2,700 MEGATON asteroid might hit Earth this October | |
Xeven  User ID: 75948321  United States07/23/2019 01:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | We do need at least one population wiped out to wake people the hell up and give earth a break. Hopefully not my population but beggars can’t be choosers. I reserve the right to declare my comments and posts as satire. Nothing I post should be considered or interpreted as advocacy for illegal activity. My comments are designed to inspire critical political thinking. I only mean half of what I say and only say half of what I mean. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77817934  Germany07/23/2019 01:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Its a matter of time before one of these does hit us. The question is will WE be warned or not? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18083195 Or do "they" already know? I became concerned on inauguration day when the Trump/Obama meeting ran almost 2 hours and then after Trump looked like he had seen a ghost. I wondered what he was told. It might make sense the end is near and thats one reason why they could care less about the deficit or invasions... "who cares, it will be over sooner than later" We are warned with the info we have. Moreover, isn't it strange the storm area 51 initiative just 2 weeks before the date. And Trump started talking UFO, if believes or not, or believes his pilots ... We will be warned officially on Sept 20. The chaos that will follow will make dangerous the everyday life...that's why we need ten days supplies, as warned before... Then ufos will come to save the few reasoning people |
| Teslahowitzer User ID: 73392892 United States07/23/2019 02:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Astroshill Senior Forum Moderator 07/23/2019 02:20 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sure the chance is little...only, are they telling us the whole truth? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77600140 You can check yourself. Here is the astrometric data for this asteroid: [link to minorplanetcenter.net (secure)] You can use that to calculate the orbital elements and determine the odds of impact. In fact I'm doing that right now... I've run just shy of 5000 Monte Carlo approximations of the orbit and found 6 possible impact solutions for the data. If this is accurate, it looks more like 1 in 1000 odds, but I have no idea if this is actually accurate yet. Need to do more checking later. Seems way too high... Ok, I let the computer run for a while and FindOrb managed to generate just shy of 29,000 Monte Carlo solutions (produced by randomly adjusting the astrometric data slightly on each incarnation to generate a cloud of potential positions of the asteroid). The virtual impactor file generated by FindOrb now contains 42 potential impactors out of those 29,000 solutions. That puts the odds of impact at roughly 1 in 690 if my math is right. However, this is the key, I'm not sure if FindOrb is really ONLY saving impacts in that file. I have the suspicion that it's saving anything that gets within about a couple LD of earth in that file. In which case it likely didn't generate any real impacts even with 29,000 rolls of the dice. I'm going to write a little program to figure that out now by pulling the minimum distance from earth for each of the Monte Carlo solutions it saved in the impactor file. If my program shows each of those would hit earth, then yes, there is a real discrepancy there between the government stated risk of impact and my calculated risk of impact. I am very skeptical that's the case, but let's see.  |
| Astroshill Senior Forum Moderator 07/23/2019 02:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Correct. [link to www.science20.com (secure)] We only have 1 day of observations for this asteroid from 12 years ago, the orbit is so uncertain that we basically do not know where along the orbit the asteroid is located at this time which is why there's a very slim possibility of impact. [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)] The nominal orbit puts it at 0.93 AU from earth at the time of impact. AU, not LD, in other words nearly as far from earth as the sun is from earth. But because the orbit is extremely uncertain, it could be just about anywhere along in its orbit, so it could be as far away as 1 AU or there's a 1 in 11,000,000 chance it could intersect with earth. Does it change direction or slow or speed up? I'm confused, if they know the nominal orbit then how do they not know where it is? Does it intersect with the gravity of other celestial bodies? This all seems kind of odd. Nominal does not mean certain. It's just the nominal orbital elements that spit out of the orbit determination calculation. There is uncertainty in each of the elements and over time the position of the asteroid becomes more uncertain because you only observed it for a short span of time. If you visualize multiple very similar orbits that fit the data equally well, the resulting virtual asteroids start off together but spread apart along the orbits over time. Here's a great video that explains the basic principles involved in determining asteroid orbits: |
| Rawfox User ID: 77825964 Germany07/23/2019 02:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77441034 United States07/23/2019 03:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AN ASTEROID with the destructive power of 2,700 megatons of explosive TNT risks slamming into the Earth later this year, NASA’s asteroid trackers have revealed. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77841932 [link to www.express.co.uk (secure)] :ohlook:  |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77441034 United States07/23/2019 03:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AN ASTEROID with the destructive power of 2,700 megatons of explosive TNT risks slamming into the Earth later this year, NASA’s asteroid trackers have revealed. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77841932 [link to www.express.co.uk (secure)] It will be another nothing burger. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 74673534  Romania07/23/2019 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77845994  Australia07/23/2019 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Astroshill Senior Forum Moderator 07/23/2019 04:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sure the chance is little...only, are they telling us the whole truth? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77600140 You can check yourself. Here is the astrometric data for this asteroid: [link to minorplanetcenter.net (secure)] You can use that to calculate the orbital elements and determine the odds of impact. In fact I'm doing that right now... I've run just shy of 5000 Monte Carlo approximations of the orbit and found 6 possible impact solutions for the data. If this is accurate, it looks more like 1 in 1000 odds, but I have no idea if this is actually accurate yet. Need to do more checking later. Seems way too high... Ok, I let the computer run for a while and FindOrb managed to generate just shy of 29,000 Monte Carlo solutions (produced by randomly adjusting the astrometric data slightly on each incarnation to generate a cloud of potential positions of the asteroid). The virtual impactor file generated by FindOrb now contains 42 potential impactors out of those 29,000 solutions. That puts the odds of impact at roughly 1 in 690 if my math is right. However, this is the key, I'm not sure if FindOrb is really ONLY saving impacts in that file. I have the suspicion that it's saving anything that gets within about a couple LD of earth in that file. In which case it likely didn't generate any real impacts even with 29,000 rolls of the dice. I'm going to write a little program to figure that out now by pulling the minimum distance from earth for each of the Monte Carlo solutions it saved in the impactor file. If my program shows each of those would hit earth, then yes, there is a real discrepancy there between the government stated risk of impact and my calculated risk of impact. I am very skeptical that's the case, but let's see. Yup, my suspicions are confirmed. I wrote a program to load in the orbital elements of the asteroids that were logged in FindOrb's impactor file, the distance between each asteroid and earth at the supposed impact time was in the hundreds of thousands of kilometers for each of the "impactors." It seems FindOrb is logging anything under a million km or so as being a potential impact, along with any actual impacts. So what this means is that there's actually only a 1 in 690 chance that this asteroid will even be within a million km of earth at the potential impact time during October of this year. That's how lost this asteroid is, and how unlikely it is to be seen by telescopes in October, let alone hit earth. |
| Astroshill Senior Forum Moderator 07/23/2019 04:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sure the chance is little...only, are they telling us the whole truth? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77600140 You can check yourself. Here is the astrometric data for this asteroid: [link to minorplanetcenter.net (secure)] You can use that to calculate the orbital elements and determine the odds of impact. In fact I'm doing that right now... I've run just shy of 5000 Monte Carlo approximations of the orbit and found 6 possible impact solutions for the data. If this is accurate, it looks more like 1 in 1000 odds, but I have no idea if this is actually accurate yet. Need to do more checking later. Seems way too high... Ok, I let the computer run for a while and FindOrb managed to generate just shy of 29,000 Monte Carlo solutions (produced by randomly adjusting the astrometric data slightly on each incarnation to generate a cloud of potential positions of the asteroid). The virtual impactor file generated by FindOrb now contains 42 potential impactors out of those 29,000 solutions. That puts the odds of impact at roughly 1 in 690 if my math is right. However, this is the key, I'm not sure if FindOrb is really ONLY saving impacts in that file. I have the suspicion that it's saving anything that gets within about a couple LD of earth in that file. In which case it likely didn't generate any real impacts even with 29,000 rolls of the dice. I'm going to write a little program to figure that out now by pulling the minimum distance from earth for each of the Monte Carlo solutions it saved in the impactor file. If my program shows each of those would hit earth, then yes, there is a real discrepancy there between the government stated risk of impact and my calculated risk of impact. I am very skeptical that's the case, but let's see. Yup, my suspicions are confirmed. I wrote a program to load in the orbital elements of the asteroids that were logged in FindOrb's impactor file, the distance between each asteroid and earth at the supposed impact time was in the hundreds of thousands of kilometers for each of the "impactors." It seems FindOrb is logging anything under a million km or so as being a potential impact, along with any actual impacts. So what this means is that there's actually only a 1 in 690 chance that this asteroid will even be within a million km of earth at the potential impact time during October of this year. That's how lost this asteroid is, and how unlikely it is to be seen by telescopes in October, let alone hit earth. Here's a chart of all ~29,000 Monte Carlo solutions of the orbital elements. Each green dot represents a possible position of the asteroid at the time of "impact." The yellow circle is the sun's position, the blue circle is earth's position (obviously the size of earth and the sun are not to scale). [link to drive.google.com (secure)] The asteroid could just as easily be on the opposite side of the sun as it could be close to or impacting earth. |
| Astroshill Senior Forum Moderator 07/23/2019 05:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Astroshill You can check yourself. Here is the astrometric data for this asteroid: [link to minorplanetcenter.net (secure)] You can use that to calculate the orbital elements and determine the odds of impact. In fact I'm doing that right now... I've run just shy of 5000 Monte Carlo approximations of the orbit and found 6 possible impact solutions for the data. If this is accurate, it looks more like 1 in 1000 odds, but I have no idea if this is actually accurate yet. Need to do more checking later. Seems way too high... Ok, I let the computer run for a while and FindOrb managed to generate just shy of 29,000 Monte Carlo solutions (produced by randomly adjusting the astrometric data slightly on each incarnation to generate a cloud of potential positions of the asteroid). The virtual impactor file generated by FindOrb now contains 42 potential impactors out of those 29,000 solutions. That puts the odds of impact at roughly 1 in 690 if my math is right. However, this is the key, I'm not sure if FindOrb is really ONLY saving impacts in that file. I have the suspicion that it's saving anything that gets within about a couple LD of earth in that file. In which case it likely didn't generate any real impacts even with 29,000 rolls of the dice. I'm going to write a little program to figure that out now by pulling the minimum distance from earth for each of the Monte Carlo solutions it saved in the impactor file. If my program shows each of those would hit earth, then yes, there is a real discrepancy there between the government stated risk of impact and my calculated risk of impact. I am very skeptical that's the case, but let's see. Yup, my suspicions are confirmed. I wrote a program to load in the orbital elements of the asteroids that were logged in FindOrb's impactor file, the distance between each asteroid and earth at the supposed impact time was in the hundreds of thousands of kilometers for each of the "impactors." It seems FindOrb is logging anything under a million km or so as being a potential impact, along with any actual impacts. So what this means is that there's actually only a 1 in 690 chance that this asteroid will even be within a million km of earth at the potential impact time during October of this year. That's how lost this asteroid is, and how unlikely it is to be seen by telescopes in October, let alone hit earth. Here's a chart of all ~29,000 Monte Carlo solutions of the orbital elements. Each green dot represents a possible position of the asteroid at the time of "impact." The yellow circle is the sun's position, the blue circle is earth's position (obviously the size of earth and the sun are not to scale). [link to drive.google.com (secure)] The asteroid could just as easily be on the opposite side of the sun as it could be close to or impacting earth. The potential near-miss solutions for this asteroid are all clustered around a particular area of the southern celestial sphere right now, around 10 hours RA, -23 degrees declination. If this asteroid were to be on a collision course it would be somewhere within that region, so I'm going to go ahead and schedule telescope time for tomorrow morning (eastern time, it's actually just after sunset Australia time) using a half meter telescope in Australia to observe the expected location if it were to be on a collision course. We'll see if anything shows up, but the odds are extremely low. 1 in 690 to be exact; it could show up in the telescope and still be a near miss within a few LD, but odds are it will be somewhere else entirely. Last Edited by Astromut on 07/23/2019 05:36 PM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77301963 United States07/23/2019 05:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NASA Quoting: deplorable recollector  NASA is just a super expensive movie-making agency. And they aren't even good at. Right cause all these near earth asteroids and comets are fake, right? :2012tc4: :2016rb1: :45panim: ASTRO.. is it me, or has there been an a lot of news ( weekly ) about a new NEO coming ? Is this normal ? |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 72751972 United States07/23/2019 05:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Astroshill Senior Forum Moderator 07/23/2019 05:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NASA Quoting: deplorable recollector NASA is just a super expensive movie-making agency. And they aren't even good at. Right cause all these near earth asteroids and comets are fake, right?   :45panim: ASTRO.. is it me, or has there been an a lot of news ( weekly ) about a new NEO coming ? Is this normal ? The media is just bored. There are new near-earth asteroids discovered every day. |
| Lucif3r User ID: 75769027  United Kingdom07/23/2019 06:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 55611245 United States07/23/2019 06:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 77757669  Poland07/23/2019 06:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Impact chance for 3 October 2019 Alternate Representations for Impact Probability = 9.2e-8 0.0000092% chance of Earth impact 1 in 11,000,000 odds of impact 99.9999908% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth [link to cneos.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)] |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 43331414 United States07/23/2019 06:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Teslahowitzer User ID: 73392892 United States07/23/2019 06:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 75995679  Netherlands07/23/2019 06:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The Wikipedia page is worth a read: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77355525 [link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)] NOTE: this is not the asteroid mentioned in the article, which has a much smaller chance of collision. NONE of wicopedo is worth reading. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 15896285 United Kingdom07/23/2019 06:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Phillip J. Fry User ID: 77427798 United States07/23/2019 06:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Correct. [link to www.science20.com (secure)] We only have 1 day of observations for this asteroid from 12 years ago, the orbit is so uncertain that we basically do not know where along the orbit the asteroid is located at this time which is why there's a very slim possibility of impact. [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (secure)] The nominal orbit puts it at 0.93 AU from earth at the time of impact. AU, not LD, in other words nearly as far from earth as the sun is from earth. But because the orbit is extremely uncertain, it could be just about anywhere along in its orbit, so it could be as far away as 1 AU or there's a 1 in 11,000,000 chance it could intersect with earth. Will there be more observations to refine its track? . "Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it, in which case for the love of God. Don't not do it!" |
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