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96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

 
Luisport  (OP)

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07/29/2019 03:18 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
even more coned...

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Luisport  (OP)

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07/29/2019 03:23 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
a lot of rain to Puerto Rico...

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Luisport  (OP)

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07/29/2019 06:15 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
Friday-Sunday...
Quickly changing pattern by late week as mid/upper level troughing
becomes more amplified across the Southeast, the Atlantic ridge axis
lifts north into northern FL, and a tropical wave (currently Invest
95L in the eastern Caribbean Sea) moves into the Straits of Florida.
Regardless of any potential development most of the model guidance
indicates high rain chances (60-70 percent) starting late Friday
night through Sunday. The focus of the heaviest rainfall looks to be
Saturday at this time as the deep moisture associated with the
tropical wave makes its closest approach to central Florida. Minor
flooding may be a concern for some areas that have seen locally
heavy rainfall. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information on Invest 95L. Skies will be considerably cloudy this
weekend keeping afternoon high temperatures "slightly cooler" in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Muggy/wet conditions likely during the
overnight hours too as lows only drop into the mid/upper 70s.
Luisport  (OP)

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07/29/2019 10:18 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
However, forecasters believe the disturbance will lose stabilization as it moves across those areas, but could gain strength as it enters warm Florida waters where the environment is more conducive for tropical development, the NHC said.
UH
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07/29/2019 10:27 AM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
UH..DIS B 'CHANTAL'?....
Luisport  (OP)

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07/29/2019 11:45 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2019

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL 29/06UTC: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL BE THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HRS. THE GFS HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FORECAST...AND IT IS
FAVORED OVER THE EUROPEAN MODELS.

ALOFT...CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN THAT IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CORRESPONDING MID LEVEL VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING PWAT
CONTENT OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PWAT CONTENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRYER AIR MASS TO THEN ENTRAIN FROM THE EAST.

GLOBAL MODELS AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MIGHT BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR TOPOGRAPHICAL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY GDI FORECAST GRADUALLY SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT MODELS SEEM SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE EVOLVING PATTERN. SO EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST TO AFFECT THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. A THIRD ROUND IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AS A DRYER AIR MASS STARTS TO ENTRAIN FROM THE EAST...MOST ACTIVE IS
LIKELY TO CLUSTER ACROSS INTERIOR/WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
Goofy for God
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07/29/2019 04:10 PM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
 Quoting: Luisport


a lot of rain to Puerto Rico...

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 Quoting: Luisport


thanks
Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
Goofy for God
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07/29/2019 05:12 PM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
New tropical storm threatens China and Vietnam

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and TROPICAL STORM ERICK

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Job 37:13 He causeth it to come, whether for correction, or for his land, or for mercy.
Paranoiaaaaa
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07/29/2019 05:21 PM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
 Quoting: Luisport

Could it maybe come up the GA coast? I don't know about the steering.
"There's a reason you separate military and the police. One fights the enemies of the state, the other serves and protects the people. When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the state tend to become the people. "- Admiral Adama Battlestar Galactica

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Anonymous Coward
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07/29/2019 05:22 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
bump
Anonymous Coward
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07/29/2019 05:52 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
 Quoting: Luisport

Could it maybe come up the GA coast? I don't know about the steering.
 Quoting: Paranoiaaaaa


At this point in time, yes. It is too far off for anyone to give a definitive or exact location it'll be going. Right now the GA coast is in the cone but in a few days the cone may show it heading towards Texas or East of the US. altogether.
Anonymous Coward
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07/29/2019 06:44 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
 Quoting: Luisport


20 bucks says it goes out to sea
Luisport  (OP)

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07/30/2019 09:32 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

@hurrtrackerapp
1 hHá 1 hora
Mais
Invest #95L maintains a 10% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The low chance for formation is expected to take place off the east coast of Florida.
Anonymous Coward
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07/30/2019 09:35 AM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
omg euro, to north carolina?

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vodka5
Luisport  (OP)

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07/30/2019 09:38 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
omg euro, to north carolina?

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

vodka5
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73199162


no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore
Anonymous Coward
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07/31/2019 06:47 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
omg euro, to north carolina? [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] vodka5
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73199162
no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore
 Quoting: Luisport


West shift !

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

scream
UH
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07/31/2019 06:56 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
omg euro, to north carolina? [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] vodka5
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73199162
no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore
 Quoting: Luisport


West shift !

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

scream
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73204165


CHANTAL BITCHES!
Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 05:58 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
omg euro, to north carolina? [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] vodka5
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73199162
no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore
 Quoting: Luisport


West shift !

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

scream
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73204165


It's the 96L...


@hurrtrackerapp
8 hHá 8 horas
Mais
Where will #96L eventually track in the long term? It’s all up to the high pressure ridge over the SW Atlantic. EURO currently shows it weakening allowing the storm to recurve, while the GFS shows a stronger ridge and a more west track. This won’t be resolved until next week.
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@hurrtrackerapp
10 hHá 10 horas
Mais
Now up to code red for our Atlantic tropical wave. There’s now a 70% chance of development during the next five days. All interests and residents in the eastern and northern Caribbean should monitor the progress of the system closely.


@DaDaBuh
11 hHá 11 horas
Mais
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z EURO WAS A FLUKE ..... 18Z GFS CONTINUES WITH A CAT 1 HURRICANE NEAR THE BAHAMAS JUST INSIDE 9 DAYS...
AmericanSpyglass

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08/01/2019 08:39 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
Wish your thread had more stars, it deserves it. I 5 starred it. This is all good information for us to stay prepared at all times, plus weather is cool. #Meteorology
Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 08:43 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
Wish your thread had more stars, it deserves it. I 5 starred it. This is all good information for us to stay prepared at all times, plus weather is cool. #Meteorology
 Quoting: AmericanSpyglass


Thank's! hf
Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 10:23 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
The Antilles will need to watch 96L
A strong tropical wave traversing the central Atlantic was designed Invest 96L on Wednesday evening by NHC. We’ll be hearing about 96L for several days to come, as the system makes its way into the western part of the Main Development Region, the deep tropics that extend from the Caribbean to Africa.

Although the strongest convection was far west of 96L's center on Wednesday night, the disturbance had “good bones”, with a large field of moisture and cloudiness and a broad, open circulation focused around 8-10°N and 31-33°W. The ASCAT advanced scatterometer detected surface winds of up to 25-30 knots at the heart of 96L. Over the next several days, 96L will be heading west-northwest toward an area of warmer SSTs where several upper-level features may align to support it.

The upper-pattern for the Central Atlantic wave as it approaches the Antilles is worth watching. A couple of upper lows to the north could ventilate the storm on the north side if things line up, but they could also bring shear (mid-level RH isn't high either). Tricky setup. pic.twitter.com/UZpTAMUVF4

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) July 31, 2019
GFS ensemble runs from Wednesday morning were near-unanimous in developing 96L into at least a depression by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Islands on Monday. About 20-30% of the European ensemble runs supported development in that period. In its 8 pm EDT Wednesday tropical weather outlook, NHC ended up in between, raising the odds of development in the 3- to 5-day period to 70%.

There is a good bit of ensemble support for 96L beyond the five-day period, but increasing spread over time (and with subsequent model runs) in where the system might go from that point onward.

Meanwhile, odds are low that the system formerly known as 95L will develop as it moves into the vicinity of The Bahamas. NHC gives the system a less-than-10% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression between Friday and Monday as it translates northward well off the Southeast U.S. coast.
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Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 10:25 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

@BobbiStorm
24 hHá 24 horas
Mais
[link to hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com] … If anything develops from what was Invest #95L it will be a Real Time Mess of Convection... A Convection Convention! So #Florida keep your eye on it & it's friend #96L that models like better & could become #Chantal but really time will tell. Patterns 2019
Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 10:26 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

@WeatherNation
2 minHá 2 minutos
Mais
A broad low pressure center in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean has a 70% chance for development, according to the @NHC_Atlantic - a look at the latest:
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Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 10:31 AM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

@hurrtrackerapp
1 minHá 1 minuto
Mais Hurricane Tracker App retweetou Brad Panovich
Invest #96L has a high chance of development and may become #Chantal by next week.
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@wxbrad
Seguir Seguir @wxbrad
Mais
#invest96l has a 70% chance of developing over the next 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days. This is likely to become #Chantal at some point over the next 5 days. #Tropics
Anonymous Coward
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08/01/2019 10:48 AM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
euro and gfs says doom off
Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 01:41 PM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
euro and gfs says doom off
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73205591


to soon to tell...


@BMcNoldy
Seguir Seguir @BMcNoldy
Mais
Heads-up, south Florida! A tropical wave is just beginning to ooze over the area today... it will bring increased chances of thunderstorms through the weekend, including heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, and even a few waterspouts/tornadoes. #FLwx @UMiamiRSMAS
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UH
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08/01/2019 01:44 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
omg euro, to north carolina? [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)] vodka5
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73199162
no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore
 Quoting: Luisport


West shift !

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

scream
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73204165


CHANTAL BITCHES!
 Quoting: UH 76909798


CHANTAL GONNA COME OUT AN KICK SOME FT. LAUD. ASS!...
Luisport  (OP)

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08/01/2019 03:38 PM

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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

@hurrtrackerapp
23 minHá 23 minutos
Mais
NHC still states there’s a 70% chance of development for #96L. However, models have been backing off on development as more unfavorable conditions are being forecasted. Still a system to watch, but chances may decrease in future outlooks.
Anonymous Coward
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08/02/2019 12:57 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
Miami is in the Bullseye....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72975988


Too soon to know where it will go and intensity... GFS showing a stall off NOLA...
 Quoting: Luisport


Here shit-for-brains...
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 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77274974


OP is a fear-mongerer
He uses many handles here, with KEYBORED being another.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29960303


Same post style
UH
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08/02/2019 12:59 PM
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Re: 96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3
...
no i don't think so, if he goes that way he will stay well offshore
 Quoting: Luisport


West shift !

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com (secure)]

scream
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73204165


CHANTAL BITCHES!
 Quoting: UH 76909798


CHANTAL GONNA COME OUT AN KICK SOME FT. LAUD. ASS!...
 Quoting: UH 77737605


U BES GIT ME UH STORM SUMMIN OR SOMTHIN..CUZ I'Z HUNGRY..!





GLP