96L Update: 95L is dead... 96L may become Hurricane Chantal in 5 days. It will be getting close the Lee Ward islands in about 6 days!!!p3

ohffs

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
NELSON COUNTY...

At 224 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Mapes, or 29 miles southeast of Devils Lake, moving
east at 25 mph.


[link to forecast.weather.gov (secure)]


should never name things after the devil

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The Euro did really well with Barry. This invest bears watching if the Euro is picking up on something.

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Invest 95L brings squally weather to the Lesser Antilles

Thunderstorms were expanding across the far eastern Caribbean on Sunday in conjunction with a strong tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L. This wave has managed to fight off the influence of wind shear and dry Saharan air, maintaining integrity along its westward trek through the deep Atlantic tropics. The wave likely benefited from rising motion at upper levels provided by a large-scale feature called a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) moving across the region, as noted by Philippe Papin (Naval Research Laboratory) on Friday.

The expansion of thunderstorms on Sunday over and near the Lesser Antilles, and the associated upper outflow, indicate the vigor of 95L. Strong upper-level divergence was evident atop 95L Sunday morning, a sign of the strengthening outflow. ASCAT scatterometer data at midday Sunday showed north winds of 25-30 knots on the west side of the wave, with southerly winds well to the south. No closed circulation was evident. It wouldn’t take much more organization for 95L to close off a surface center and become a tropical depression, but interaction with the islands will likely quash that potential.

Over the next couple of days, 95L will be moving northwest across the eastern Caribbean—a region so notorious for strong wind shear and dry air, especially early in the season, that it’s sometimes called a hurricane graveyard. At first, a small upper ridge building over the eastern Caribbean could give 95L enough support to maintain itself over this hostile region. Between 10% and 30% of ensemble members from the European and GFS (FV3) models from Saturday night showed development of 95L into a tropical depression over the Caribbean by Monday. As the wave approaches the Greater Antilles around midweek, it will encounter strong westerly shear, and interaction with the larger islands will disrupt any circulation. Heavy thunderstorms can be expected to spread westward from Puerto Rico across Hispaniola toward Cuba, and some localized flash flooding will be possible.

On its continued northwest path, 95L is projected to move over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits late this week at the same time a large upper ridge is projected to sharpen there. Together, these may give 95L its best shot at intensification. The 2 pm EDT Sunday tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 95L a 10% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression by Tuesday, and a 20% chance by Friday.
[link to www.wunderground.com (secure)]

If it were to hit Florida.
How much MPH do you think it will be ?

Crap. We just got on a cru8se out of tampa. Be gone till next sunday. Going to grand caymen tuesday. Roatan wednesday. Belize thursday cozumel friday and back through the gulf to tampa sat ans sunday morning

it's impossible to know. We have to wait and see what models will tell.

You should be good. The ships do a good job of avoiding the storms. If you are going toward Grand Cayman/Belize/Cozumel, you will be going opposite the storm. Maybe some rough waters when you are returning.

Have a great time.

It's looking Hangry and something possibly developing down in the Mexican Gulf crook.

[link to www.ssec.wisc.edu (secure)]

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Wow, that blew up insanely fast.

yes, impressive!

Check out FL.

Limbaugh and Miami/Palm Beach residents are in for a round.

Sure its a wet state..but they ain't seen nothin yet.

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My apologies for the politics lol.

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Nothing on the NHC for that flare up there. Probably won’t develop past local showers, UNLESS the models didn’t catch it.

for now...

That's waaaay close to shore. It'll probably be local like you said.

Right, and the actual lower level circulation I think already made landfall. Cloud tops also aren’t that cold anymore.

the storm is expected to be absorbed by an approaching cold front and fall apart by Tue

Heat Index is 117 in the Valley of the Sun right now. August will be a real BITCH.

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